Gates: Troop Draw Down could take Two to Three Years.

by Karl Gotthardt - albertacowpoke | December 4, 2009 at 04:19 am

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Only two days after the President's speech at Westpoint Military Academy, the Secretary of Defence Robert Gates has acknowledged that there is no deadline in the troops withdrawal from Afghnistan. Gates said that the troop withdrawal scheduled to commence in July 2011 will probably two to three years. He added there are no deadlines in terms when our troops will be out.

The Pentagon also acknowledged that there will probably be slippage in the deployment of surge troops.

"They are not all going to be there in six months," a senior military official said. The current thinking, the official said, is that the Pentagon will be able to push about 20,000 to 25,000 troops into the country by late summer, but that the final brigade -- about 5,000 troops -- will probably not arrive until early fall.

This would be in keeping with conventional wisdom based on runway availability and the requirement to resupply the 68,000 U.S. troops already in Afghanistan. This deployment could be further complicated with deployment and resupply of NATO forces and other Allies already in country.

The UK and Italy have already pledged additional troops, France and Germany are waiting for the Afghanistan Conference in London before making any further commitment.

While the President's speech tried to appease both the Left and the Right during his announcement, reality has no set in with setting the plan into action. The Pentagon has made no announcement as to the deployment of the Marines, which was forecasted later this month.

US troops launched a major offensive in Hellmand Province this morning. This is the first major offensive since the Presidents announcement.

NATO warned that the deployment of more troops into Afganistan was no silver bullet and to be prepared for a lengthy battle.

The withdrawal of U.S. forces from Afghanistan, scheduled to begin in July 2011, will "probably" take two or three years, Defense Secretary Robert M. Gates said Thursday, although he added that "there are no deadlines in terms of when our troops will all be out."

The Pentagon, meanwhile, quietly acknowledged slippage on the front end of the 30,000-troop deployment that President Obama authorized for the first half of 2010.

"They are not all going to be there in six months," a senior military official said. The current thinking, the official said, is that the Pentagon will be able to push about 20,000 to 25,000 troops into the country by late summer, but that the final brigade -- about 5,000 troops -- will probably not arrive until early fall.

New details fleshed out the revamped strategy Obama outlined Tuesday night as Gates, Secretary of State Hillary Rodham Clinton and Adm. Mike Mullen, chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff, testified before Congress on the plan for a second day.

The NATO Secretary General Anders Fogh Rasmussen, has announced that NATO nations will contribute an additional 7000 troops by the end of next year. That would be by the review date announced by President Obama and Hilliary Clinton, Robert Gates and Admiral Mullen. Does NATO know something that we haven't been told by the Administration. This appears like a late arrival for NATO if the review is to take place then.

NATO staggers on. News reports indicate that NATO nations are prepared to send 7,000 additional troops to Afghanistan to supplement the 30,000 additional troops President Barack Obama will send. But as they have for years in Afghanistan, these European troops will face limits on what they can and cannot do, which means that the United States will still carry out most of the fighting.

Still, just keeping Europe on the ground, in uniform, in Afghanistan represents an achievement of sorts that we should not belittle. For this commitment comes from a Europe that the Britain-based military analyst Colin S. Gray describes, in his 2005 book, Another Bloody Century: Future Warfare, as "thoroughly debellicized": that is, a Europe whose "aversion to military solutions is not simply an opinion of the moment" but something deep-rooted and "cultural."

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Karl Gotthardt - albertacowpoke

at 05:09 on December 4th, 2009

That is exactly what I think too. Underestimating timelines is pretty common even among the military, especially if they are planned on best case scenario.

a211423

at 10:46 on December 4th, 2009

Timelines are projections, and that was fairly clear to me from the descriptions given last Wednesday. The December review in 2010 indicates that the process will be parsed and adjustments can be made. This is encouraging because no one knows for sure if this is going to work, and this gesture shows transparency.

Karl Gotthardt - albertacowpoke

at 10:56 on December 4th, 2009

As we used to say in the Army, a plan only gets you across the Line of Departure, after that you have to make adjustments. What concerns me here though, that adjustments are already being made before the first troops deploy.

In Reference to the December 2010, review it will almost take that long to deploy all the troops.

a211423

at 11:48 on December 4th, 2009

From what I understood, and please let me know if this is incorrect. Troops will be deployed in specific areas and focus on that area to secure it, then Afghan troops will take over with the civilian folks working on infrastructure. Then the troops will move on to different area. There must be some military name for that, but I don't know what it is. This means all the troops don't have to be deployed all at once to know if this method is working or not.

Karl Gotthardt - albertacowpoke

at 11:58 on December 4th, 2009

The heaviest slugging is going on in Kandahar and Hellmand right now. It's called a staged deployment. I'm not sure if training will only take place in the Kabul area, which has a training area nearby or if they will also use facilities in both Hellmand and Kandahar province.

It will take a while for diplomats and developers to trust Afghans with their safety. In principal that is how it is supposed to work.

For your info, US Forces started an operation in northern Hellmand Province this morning

Dec. 4 (Bloomberg) -- U.S. and Afghan forces began an operation in southern Afghanistan to disrupt Taliban militants, the first offensive since President Barack Obama announced plans to send 30,000 more troops to the South Asian country.

The offensive in the northern part of Helmand province, called operation Cobra’s Anger, is being led by 900 American Marines and 150 Afghan soldiers, U.S. military spokesman Nicolas Melendez said in an e-mail. British troops from Task Force Helmand also are involved in the operation that began today.

a211423

at 12:08 on December 4th, 2009

Thank you for the information cowpoke : ) The ratio of American troops to Afghan troops was discussed on Wednesday, and thank you showing how this will be done.

The world's eyes are on Afghanistan, so lets hope for the best.