Greenspan admits that new thinking is needed

There are many who will feel vindicated by Alan Greenspan's admission this week that 40 years of history is not a predictor for what will happen in the future.  Many will use this as an opportunity for claims that they could have seen events occurring and therefore that they are great predictors of the future. 

I treat such remarks from the sidelines with caution, after all it's easy to predict your underdog sports team will win the grand final, but how easy is it to predict when, by how much and what the ramificatons will be?  I don't know about you, but I'm glad I'm on the sidelines and not the one in charge of the team.

What this does call for is a new approach to policy based on resilience thinking, and for organisations and individuals to assess how resilient they are.  It's only through asking those questions that we can be assured of a resilient and prosperous future.

Todd Davies
www.resilientfutures.org