Hillary gaining momentum in Texas

by mtippett | February 28, 2008 at 06:12 pm | 702 views | 3 comments | 12 recommendations

Most current polls show Barack Obama taking the lead in Texas, but one pollster argues that Hillary Clinton has in fact regained the momentum in the race. Here are the latest InsiderAdvantage numbers, compared to their previous poll from Monday:

Clinton 47% (+1)
Obama 43% (-4)

The internals show Hillary expanding her lead among Latinos, holding steady among whites, dropping slightly with women but making gains among men.

recommend Add a comment
politisite
politisite
flagged this story as Good Stuff

at 19:19 on February 28th, 2008

Why So Much Volatility in Texas? Sampling data is an issue here while pollsters are not being careful in matching Population demographics in thier samples. I will be providing a full report on Monday following the last data reports over the weekend. I still see Obama with an advantage as Texas two stepping is a primary then a Caucus. Obama has the best feet on the ground in the latter


One likely reason for much of the apparent "volatility" in the Democratic results is that the Obama-Clinton vote preference shows large variation on five critical variables: race and ethnicity, gender, age, socio-economic status and party affiliation (percent non-Democratic on party ID). Small changes in pollster methods (such as whether they sample from a list, how they select respondents within each sampled household, what time of day they call, whether they use live interviewers or an automated methodology and how they weight their data) can produce important differences in sample composition that will in turn affect the vote preference results.

0
sremmah3

Hello Politisite...looking forward to your article on Monday. Perhaps too you can explain the (to me) complex two-tiered Texan system?

 

PEP
PEP
flagged this story as Good Stuff

at 19:22 on February 28th, 2008

mtippett, I like this story. It's good stuff.

As I noted in my recent piece, Hillary hasn't been given a fair shake, especially by the media. 

Add a comment

The content of this field is kept private and will not be shown publicly.

February 28, 2008 at 06:12 pm by mtippett, 702 views, 3 comments

closeSign in to NowPublic

is reporting from