Hillary is Still Going to Win

Everyone is abuzz about a “change” in America (what that change is I
don’t know but it’s going to change!). These people are passionate
about politics now and about the future of America. They have hope and
are able to dream again.

Unfortunately for them, this is all just a dream. Senator Obama is
still going to lose to Senator Clinton. I’m sorry to all of you
impassioned Obama-philes, but politics is politics and there is a
definite monarchy here.

To tell you the truth, I was beginning to think that Obama actually
had a chance - well, for about a second I thought that. But then I read
a column written by Rich Galen over at mullings.com which woke me up from my momentary loss of sanity. Here it is:

# In the Democratic Party there are 796 “Super
Delegates.” These are men and women who are delegates to the Democratic
National Convention in Denver by virtue of their position, not because
they were elected in primary or chosen in a party caucus.

# Officially, within the Democratic National Committee rules they
are known as “Party Leaders and Elected Officials” (PLEOs) but Super
Delegates stuck. PLEOs did not.

# Mullpal Lanny Davis has reminded us that Super Delegates were
never intended to be pledged to one candidate, but were the insiders
who could undo a bad decision by those pesky voters in primaries and
caucuses.

# Yesterday, Mr. Davis (with whom I have appeared as a sparring
partner many times over the past decade) pointed out that in an earlier
age Democratic Party insiders chose as the Party’s nominee Franklin
Delano Roosevelt, Adlai Stevenson, and John F. Kennedy.

[Picture from the observer.com]

# As we pointed out here on Wednesday, Barack Obama - following
Tuesday’s “Potomac Primary” has assumed the lead in the actual delegate
count.

# The way the delegates are awarded in these Democratic primarie,
unless one candidate gets 80% of the votes the awards tend to be 54% to
46% one way or the other.

# Thus, according to CNN’s count, Barak Obama has 1,096 elected
delegates (of the 2,025 needed) while Hillary Clinton has 977 - 119
fewer and that ration isn’t likely to change much.

# While Super Delegates have no requirement to support any candidate
prior to the opening of the Convention, CNN reports Obama has the
pledged support of 157 and Clinton has 234 closing the gap between them
to only 42 delegates.

# As there are 796 Super Delegates and only 391 have pledge to
support one of the candidates, that leaves 405 Super Delegates sitting
around waiting for offers.

# So long as Hillary Clinton stays inside of 405 delegates, the Supers can turn the tide.

# But, they won’t just swoop onto the floor and wrest the nomination
away from Obama because that would cause a riot in Denver. Here’s what
they will do:

You may remember that Michigan and Florida were stripped of their
delegates because they ignored the DNC dictum that thou shalt not have
a primary election earlier than February 5.

They did and Hillary won both.

The Clintons will arrange for their Super Delegates to reach down
to the elected delegates who are members of the Rules and/or
Credentials Committees over whom they have some control (If you are a
sitting Democratic US Senator or Governor and you call an elected
delegate from your state, that elected delegate will take your call).

The Super Delegates will instruct the elected delegates on those
committees to seat delegations from Florida and Michigan proportionate
to the votes Obama and Clinton received.

# I guarantee you that the proportions will be just enough to give the nomination to Hillary.

# And

1. The Clintons will be able to claim they had nothing to do with it.

2. The Supers will be able to claim they were just doing their jobs by not disenfranchising voters in two crucial states.

3. Just as you read, it is so complex that no one will be able to explain it in the required 12 seconds on television.

# Sending Lanny Davis out yesterday to begin the process of
inoculating Democrats against Super Delegate skullduggery is only the
first step. Between now and August there will be a constant drumbeat
that Michigan and Florida cannot be shut out and the Clintonistas will
be working the phones to be certain everyone knows their role.

# Or else.

As an aside to all of this horse race stuff - I think it is rather
sad that individuals look to a politician for hope. No politician has
ever made an average person successful. Obama talks a good talk - but
that’s all. BigT