How to sell Russia's enclave to Baltic neighbours?

Lately the Russian energy management officials have been more often expressing their opinion that the 2,400 MW Baltic Nuclear Power Plant (NPP) project scheduled to be implemented in Russia’s Kaliningrad area could become a regional one. The recent press publications also show that Moscow would eagerly see its Baltic neighbours joining the NPP project. It has not yet sold them on the plan, however, intensity of persuasion has been fading in notably this year, clearly for the forthcoming closure of the Ignalina NPP in Lithuania by the year’s end.

Apparently the question about eventual participation of the three countries is raised also because of the fact that, due to the current economic crisis, Russian non-governmental investors are reportedly indisposed to invest in an expensive and a long-term project.

By intended involvement of the Baltic countries Moscow will be also following its aim of  neutralization of reluctance of the European Union over the Kaliningrad NPP as a geopolitical masterstroke of the Kremlin.

Russian mass media have been reminding that Kaliningrad NPP is a part of Putin’s Plan: within 12 years to build 26 major NPPs in Russia, to practically double the amount of nuclear power generated in Russian Federation. News agency RIA Novosti considers that Kaliningrad NPP project was chosen to be implemented as the first because of Moscow’s worries about power security of its Baltic enclave. One may notice as well that these efforts coincide with the closure of the remaining Chernobyl-type reactor in Lithuania.

In Russia there is a growing number of public utterance and media reports describing the Kaliningrad NPP plan as salvation of the three Baltic countries exposed to potential danger of power shortage in the nearest future.

Since contrary to expectations of the Baltic states there is still no precise plan of building of Visaginas NPP in Lithuania to replace the old Ignalina NPP, they should be interested in any reasonable faster solution of the problem. This is what the Director of the Baltic International Centre of Economic Policy Researches, Alfs Vanags, has declared. According to Vanags, from 2010 Lithuania and Latvia will have to increase power import from other countries. Despite the argument of necessity to provide power independence and power security, it is Russia which is seen as the most suitable country whence the Baltic states can import electric power, Vanags points out. This is also why Russia considers that the planned Baltic NPP in the Kaliningrad enclave could become a subject of interdependence of interests of Russia and the Baltic countries.

The President of the Russia’s Institute of Energetics, Leonid Grigoryev, declared that after closure of Ignalina NPP «in the situation of world crisis the governments of Baltic states would be practically unable to find money and build a new NPP, even with the help of Europe».

On April 9, news agency Regnum, which is close to the Russian government, cited the leading expert of Finam Management, Dmitry Baranov who clearly declared that “Russia could repeatedly suggest Lithuania to participate as a partner in construction of the Baltic NPP in Kaliningrad area. In fact, its participation as a plant’s co-investor would guarantee Lithuania reception of electric power from the moment of the NPPs putting into operation on”.

Although the Kaliningrad alternative seems to be a rational choice from the economic point of view, one may presume that in practice the Baltic governments will be guided in a greater degree by political reasons: they are adjusted to be independent of Russia in energy supply questions as far as possible.

Today the imported electric power comes to the Baltic basically from Russia and it is likely that this tendency will be kept and will become even stronger in the nearest years.