I Provide Proof That There is a Global Economic Recovery

by Babel-Fish | October 29, 2009 at 05:18 pm

192 views | 2 Recommendations | 5 comments

I am totally fed up with the Doom and Gloom mud political minded raking concerning the 2008 recession. Look folks it all over the world is not diving deeper into a recession, if you want proof what I am saying is right, well just click on the link World Markets

Please note that every stock market chart has sloped upwards since March 2009, that being the date the recovery started to take place. Over this year period and when there has been a trough it’s been very noticeable to me at least. That somebody preached some doom and gloom of which the mainstream media hyped and milked. Normally it was some stupid politician attacking the political party in the seat of power within the worlds richer nations especially USA.

Today as Obama’s administration published a good news story about USA’s GDP in UK a Tory controlled news paper publish some economical propaganda about UK diving deeper in to recession. The Stock Market in UK shows a very different picture as its recovering. However this hype will cause a small trough if other British Tory control media step on the hype band wagon.

To me it does not matter if the Stimulation plans worked or are working. Those that have a political motive, to say the Stimulus packaged is not working seemingly think its okay to dismiss obvious facts. The global stock market charts that show very clearly we are very nearly out of the recession. When I analysis and make a projection in my opinion the Global Stock markets will be completely recovered before next June.

After looking at the yearly global stock market charts one does not need to be a economical genius to see the logic truth. To analyze the market place one needs to look at the markets history and then take a long term logical view. Just look at what the media hype did a week or so ago before all the facts where out about USA’s GDP and now today the truth is out the GDP is better than its been for a long time.

The recovery has never been really about the stimulus package it is about the confidence regained by investors. In the longer term once the markets have recovered new jobs will be created and within a year or so unemployment queues begin to shrink to more acceptable levels.

I keep on reading the need to create jobs then governments bailing out industries, such as the Automobile industry in the US, perhaps that’s a good idea, and then perhaps it isn’t. But the argument's are a never ending headache and the doom and gloom merchants make things look worst than they really are.

I personal would of, initiated home grown manufacturing by placing high import tax on some products from China and maybe India. Certainly never bailed out the banks nor industry. Markets recover on their own that's because investor need to make money once they become comfortable they start gambling again.

It’s logical money has to flow to the home product makers and not to those outside of USA or Europe so manufacturing is the key.

0 See all footage | View Slideshow

Share: email story | add to any | | facebook | stumbleupon

recommend Sign In or Join to post comments

PIM of SPAIN

at 01:50 on October 30th, 2009

BF, I really admire your optimistic view on the present economic events. Be assured that I myself wouldn't like even more being able to report such a view. Reality however is much different. But take it for granted that without better employment results, industrial world wide, no recovery is possible. The recovery now witnessed as you correctly mentioned is the result of wide spread stimuli. These are distorting the real picture. There doesn't exist a jobless recovery not in the past and not in the future.

Babel-Fish

at 15:16 on October 30th, 2009

I have provided the charts they are a years history within this recessed period and explained about how markets recover first because of investors become confident. Then jobs start to get created jobs simply do not get created within the recovery period. There should be no doubt that the markets show a steady recovery is taking place. Its not optimism its pure and simple fact and history of past recessions show the same trait.

I have not put any emphasize that the stimulus has created a recovery, I have stated that without the stimulus the markets would have recovered any way. All the stimulus did was initiate investment earlier it would never been enough to create the Hugh rise in stocks and shares over the past year, that is only due to investment. The stimulus was only a splash in a large coffee cup. lol.

Where's all this doom and gloom concerning the stock markets, its certainly not a very obvious factor?

An interesting factor is how well countries that did not invest in a stimulus plan are doing their stocks and shares are also recovering nicely.

Rory Cripps

at 17:13 on October 30th, 2009

Babel-Fish: Thanks for the story! No doubt that there are certain positive economic indicators out there. And no doubt that some are accurate reflections of the economic reality. On the other hand, there's no doubt that some positive indicators are only fleeting. For example, the uptick in the American GDP as a result of "cash for clunkers" and the $8000 first home time buyer stimulus. The problem with the stock market being used as a positive indicator is that much of the uptick that the current market has experienced is driven by a small and select group of insiders that have the financial means to create an artificial high through manipulation of various high-profile stocks. At this point, the value of those particular stocks bears little relation to the intrinsic value of the companies that those stocks represent. One look at the P/E ratios is a good indication of the reality.

The U.S. GDP is about 70% consumer driven. Consumer confidence is currently very low. The unemployment rate in the U.S. is hovering around 10%, however in many states, it's much higher than that and in those states, it's approaching some of the national unemployment averages seen during the Great Depression. If we start from the Great Depression and use it as a gauge, the only other time after that that America has experienced trends of double-digit unemployment was during the Reagan Administration where, at one point, unemployment peaked at 10.8% and stayed in the 10% range for ten months and it took over four years for the unemployment rate to drop into the 7% range. If we go by long-running averages, it's safe to say that "full employment" is when U.S. unemployment is in the 4% to 6% range although economists do, in fact, disagree on what constitutes "full employment.".

If we look at a 1980s unemployment chart and take note of the unemployment trend, it appears to be similar to what the U.S. is now faced with in terms of unemployment numbers and trends. But when we look beyond the unemployment numbers to various economic indicators during that time in the 1980s, we see a very different picture of the economy as a whole in comparison to what we see today. The U.S. economy, at the time, was winding down from double-digit inflation, and double-digit interest rates. Indeed, the money supply was so heated up that Americans were buying up gold, coins, artwork, real estate, antiques, and any other material object deemed to be of value because prices were rising at an unprecedented rate. In other words, the American consumer's mind-set was "buy now" because it will cost more tomorrow. And in spite of the unemployment rate, Americans, collectively and for the most part, still retained a stock of disposable income in the form of savings, high-interest CDs, etc., still had access to credit, and if all of the above dried up, they still had wealth in the form of home equity and investments that could be tapped into as a last resort.

The economic and financial realities that Americans are faced with nowadays are almost the complete opposite of what they were faced with in the 80s in spite of the high unemployment rate throughout the first half of that decade. Those economic and financial realities indeed mirror the realities of the Great Depression. For example: The amount of home foreclosures today is staggering. The amount of personal bankruptcies is staggering. The dramatic decline in home values and corresponding loss of equity is staggering. The decline in the value of retirement investments is staggering. The decline in the value of the American dollar is staggering. And the present interest rate which is, effectively, in the negative zone is staggering. So on and so forth . . . .

PIM, in my opinion, has consistently nailed it in all of his posts. But believe me! I hope that PIM's economic analysis is completely wrong! And I hope that I'm completely wrong in my full and unwavering support of PIM's analysis! And if both of us are dead wrong, I'll take solace in the fact that when it comes to predicting the future of an economy, most "award winning" and celebrated economists are wrong . . . .

Babel-Fish

at 17:56 on October 30th, 2009

The dismissal of stock markets and looking at my complicated factors is completely wrong, the state of a nation is geared to how much is being invested and the well being of its industries. Consumer power is the secondary indicator. Unemployment has nothing to do with the factor of a recovering economy the market place has to recover before people can be re-employed.

The stock market is the main indicator its where the investors money has been placed, this recession has always been about a lack of confidence that was caused by media hype.

I have made a firm forecast that the recession will be over by June next year. I will remind every body that I made that forecast at this stage of the economical recovery.

Rory Cripps

at 18:55 on October 30th, 2009

Babel-Fish: Again: The American GDP is about 70% consumer driven. The stock market doesn't drive the economy--the American consumer and , therefore, the American worker with money in his or her pocket, does. The Wall Street insiders can manipulate the market all that they want for short-term gain but the bottom line is that if American consumers don't throw money into the economy, then whatever happens on Wall Street is marginal in terms of affecting the economy and only fleeting and, ultimately, of no significance. The dirty little secret (call it a conspiracy to hide the fact if you will) is that the pigs on Wall Street are at the mercy of the American consumer. However, due to Wall Street's clever marketing techniques and the fact that the U.S. government has allowed Wall Street to rip off the American consumer with impunity, I can understand why people believe that Wall Street is the end all and be all that drives the U.S. economy . . . .

BTW: In regard to the recession being over by June of next year, we've already been told by the "experts" that the recession is now over. Tell that to the 20 million Americans, or thereabouts, that will be on the unemployment line come next June. And tell that to them when, and if, they re-enter the work force and find that the only job that they can get is flipping hamburgers or washing dishes for minimum wage . . . . As PIM pointed out, weeks ago, the American economy has reached the point of "saturation". It's now at the overflow point and hasn't even begun to settle at ground level. Once it settles at ground level, it will stagnate and eventually come down to earth . . . .