World

The Illusion of economic recovery and the coming deluge

by Susan Marie Kovalinsky | October 5, 2009 at 10:15 pm

326 views | 27 Recommendations | 5 comments

Howe and Strauss, those venerable American history scholars, had it right all along. I recall in 2002, telling people that a U.S. and global depression was inevitable by 2008 or so, because Howe and Strauss had made their case so convincingly in The Fourth Turning: What the Cycles of History have to say about America's next rendezvous with destiny (Broadway Books, 1997). I might add their language and rhetoric was some of the most beautiful I had read from political analysts.

Of course everyone shot my warnings down; I became the Cassandra, telling oracles and despised for it as they were inconvenient truths. (There were many profoundly important cultural predictions made by H and S which have since come to pass, by the way.)

And sure enough, it all began to unravel and by 2007-08 it was becoming obvious. Now they speak of recovery but it is a delusion, and Howe and Strauss predicted that as well.

"War is Peace, Freedom is Slavery, Ignorance is Strength, and Debt is Recovery

In light of the ever-present and unyieldingly persistent exclamations of ‘an end’ to the recession, a ‘solution’ to the crisis, and a ‘recovery’ of the economy; we must remember that we are being told this by the very same people and institutions which told us, in years past, that there was ‘nothing to worry about,’ that ‘the fundamentals are fine,’ and that there was ‘no danger’ of an economic crisis."

Why do we continue to believe the same people that have, in both statements and choices, been nothing but wrong? Who should we believe and turn to for more accurate information and analysis? Perhaps a useful source would be those at the epicenter of the crisis, in the heart of the shadowy world of central banking, at the global banking regulator, and the “most prestigious financial institution in the world,” which accurately predicted the crisis thus far: The Bank for International Settlements (BIS). This would be a good place to start.

The economic crisis is anything but over, the “solutions” have been akin to putting a band-aid on an amputated arm. The Bank for International Settlements (BIS), the central bank to the world’s central banks, has warned and continues to warn against such misplaced hopes.

0 See all footage | View Slideshow

Share: email story | add to any | | facebook | stumbleupon

recommend This comment thread is now closed

Babel-Fish

at 23:11 on October 5th, 2009

Are we now talking about the World economy or the US economy? Because I think all signs show the World economy is recovering, but the US economy is recovering at a much slower rate. With the signs that there is going to be a swap from the US$ controlling currency exchange I see a World that wants to cut ties with the ups and downs of USA economy and US economy will be less effective on stronger currencies abroad.

Hugh Askew

at 02:01 on October 6th, 2009

Good article, smkovalinsky!

"Why do we continue to believe the same people that have, in both statements and choices, been nothing but wrong?" The high and mighty, including those in the financial and business sectors, as well as our president, have already begun to tell us that the recession is over.

Meanwhile, the only hope for a near term return to "normal" is for people to go back to living well beyond their means. Don't think that is going to happen.....at least not for a decade or two. Of course, governments, rather than cutting spending AND taxes, simply do what they think we should do - ignore reality and live beyond our budget.

Iffy (not verified)

at 03:27 on October 6th, 2009

I live in the UK and you wouldn't know there is a recession at all. Restaurants, shops, bars are just rammed with people spending money. Roads are packed with people driving everywhere (even when gas is double the price in the US). It seems like it is just the US that is suffering in this recession.

nanute

at 09:36 on October 6th, 2009

I think it is said that the UK relies on the rest of the European market for 50% of their export market. Italy, France, Germany and Ireland are all experiencing serious economic declines. Maybe there is a lag in the time line vs a vi the US downturn? The UK has a bit more in terms of the social safety net, and I wonder what you rate of unemployment is currently. Your housing market has declined quite a bit as well.

I suspect you've got a better savings rate than the US. This might explain why consumers are still spending. Maybe you folks have dodged a bullet. The next 6 to 12 months will give us a clearer picture.

Jnkns

at 11:56 on October 6th, 2009

Recession isn't measured in terms of how much money is people spending, there's definitely something wrong with current world economy, you can see people overspending and it is simply because an illusion given by loans.

http://www.tradeviewforex.com/blog/post/2009/09/16/Bernanke-announces-e2809dthe-end-of-the-world-financial-crisise2809d.aspx/