Inevitability of Iraq Civil War
As soon as American troops withdraw, the vacuum will be filled by various sects within Iraq and at best it will mirror representation of the elected coalition government. Fat chance. Intrusion by outside forces in such as place only forestalls the propensity for tribes to reach their own equilibrium. At best, we can hope for minimal intervention from various Middle Eastern neighbors. Worst case is the Middle East will erupt into a regional war. Best case is to keep Israel out of the conflict. Best case is to keep Americans on the fringe with sufficient force to keep the oil flowing.
“Violence highlights fears of Iraqi security forces taking over after U.S. leaves
By Leila Fadel
Washington Post Foreign Service
Sunday, April 18, 2010
RADWANIYAH, IRAQ -- Raw welts and purple bruises run down the backs of dozens of Sunni Muslim men in a small village west of Baghdad -- evidence, local residents say, of abuse by the Iraqi army that threatens to widen a sectarian rift.
The wounds came from beatings administered last month by soldiers from the predominantly Shiite force charged with protecting the Sunni community here, villagers said. One by one, they said, the Sunni men were questioned, beaten and shocked with electricity in a roundup by mostly Shiite Iraqi soldiers, who were reeling from the killing of five comrades at a checkpoint.
The violence comes at a time when the performance and professionalism of Iraq's security forces are facing a crucial test. With U.S. troop levels scheduled to drop to 50,000 by summer's end, Iraqi security forces control the streets. But they face deep mistrust in particular from Iraqi Sunnis, who in some areas consider the Army a less-than-neutral instrument of a Shiite-dominated government.
In Radwaniyah, Sunni tribal leaders say the beatings have cemented fears about what might happen when the U.S. military leaves for good. They worry about being caught between the Sunni insurgents they turned against and a Shiite-led government they do not trust.
"These things can destroy the whole security situation," said Hamid Obaid Sahar al-Hamdani, a tribal leader in Radwaniyah who said he addressed the problem with the U.S. military and complained to police. Since the incident, al-Qaeda in Iraq has approached the tribes about collaboration, he said. "We can see the collapse on the horizon," he said.”