Truemors
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THE HAGUE - An Israeli attack intended to set back Iran's nuclear program is likely to take place before 2009, western intelligence sources say. Israel is believed to have completed planning three or four scenarios for an attack, and is now said to be contemplating the right time for military action. Sources say the Israeli scenarios are based upon the assumption that unilateral action without overt US military support will be necessary, given the probable inability of the US to open and keep up a third theatre of operations alongside those in Afghanistan and Iraq.
The assumed 'necessity' of an Israeli attack is derived from three estimates: the first is that Iran, according to Israeli intelligence, will have two or three nuclear missiles operational by the late summer of 2009; the second is that diplomacy and a package of economic incentives and sanctions will not bear sufficient fruit; the third is that an attack by the end of 2008 or later will result in insufferable losses. Israel's military planners see a rapidly closing window of opportunity: an attack must essentially be air-based, and since Iran will have its Russian-purchased S-300 air defence systems fully operational by year's end, an attack after that is believed to result in too many losses to ensure minimal success. The S-300 systems can take out aircraft, cruise missiles and ballistic missile warheads at ranges of over 90 miles and at altitudes of about 90,000 feet, with great effectiveness. If non-military means don’t work, then military means must be deployed before 2009.
Minimal success
According to sources familiar with Israeli planning, 'minimal success' is defined as the elimination of the five or six nuclear facilities that are the most essential in Iran's program of at least nineteen facilities, as well as the elimination of two facilities where Iran is working on modifying its ballistic Shahab-3 missiles for nuclear warheads. If this 'minimal success' is achieved, then Iran's offensive nuclear capability will be set back by at least a decade.
According to military analysts, the total destruction of Iran's nuclear program is not an option since the scale, locations and defences of the entire Iranian program would require commitment of such a vast number of Israeli military assets that the operation would weaken Israel’s forces necessary to check Syria, Jordan and Lebanon-based Hezbollah.
Attack within weeks?
Sources would not comment on intel rumours that an Israeli strike is to be expected in the near future -there is talk of "weeks". This rumour is based on the fact that Iran in recent months hastily began upgrading its current air defence systems, and on the expectation that the upgrade will be integrated and fully operational within weeks from now, thus raising possible Israeli losses in case of an attack.
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