Liberal Leadership Race: Revised Odds, 1 Woman, 3 Gents and A Public Intellectual

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Michael Ignatieff asks about the economy

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With the Liberal Leadership Convention firmly slated for the weekend starting April 30th 2009 in lovely Vancouver, British Columbia now seems like as good a time as any to review the potential Leadership candidates accompanied by a set of odds denoting the likelihood of each candidate reaching the top of the mountain.

As of this posting Etobicoke MP Michael Ignatieff and New Brunswick counterpart Dominic LeBlanc are the only two potential leaders to have officially tossed their hat’s into the ring of eligibility.

4) 100/1 Brampton MP Ruby Dhalla – Clearly Dr. Dhalla a first generation Canadian represents the Lib’s best shot at a candidate for change. At age 34, Dhalla not only represents a change from the old, angry, white men of Canada’s politic past but Dhalla also represents a much needed advancement in sexual equality on Capitol Hill. (Previous Rank: NA)

4) 100/1 Former Outremont MP Martin Cauchon – The former, former, former. Mr. Cauchon is a Chrétien loyalist, one time Justice Minister, National Revenue Minister and touted 2003 leadership candidate. As Justice Minister, Cauchon was asked wether he had used marijuana in the past and promptly told parliamentary reporters "Yes, of course." The state of the Liberal Party is such that a reversion to Chrétienism might not be a bad thing but what remains to be seen is whether Cauchon can roll up enough of his former cronies to make a serious run. (Previous Rank: NA)

3) 20/1 New Brunswick MP Dominic LeBlanc – On October 27th LeBlanc became the first candidate to officially join the leadership race. Seen as a sort of Jack of All Trades, LeBlanc is an established politician with mounds of cred and a Harvard education. LeBlanc’s shortcomings aren’t really LeBlanc’s shortcomings they actually belong to Stéphane Dion and unfortunately Mr. LeBlanc may just have hitched his cart a little too close to the outgoing Foremen’s. (Previous Rank: NR)

2) 7/1 Toronto Centre MP Bob Rae – Despite his unofficial status pegging Toronto Centre MP Bob Rae as the number two candidate is a virtual no brainer. At odds of 7/1 Rae appears to be where the smart money is going but as I have discussed in previous leadership postings Rae’s recessive history as leader of Ontario’s New Democrat Party stands in stark contrast to the economic stability needed in these trying financial times. As a Wiseman once informed me "Hey Kid, wanna know where the smart money is? It’s where you ain’t." With that in mind Rae represents a strong fade in this spot. (Previous Rank: #2)

1) 5/2 Etobicoke MP Michael Ignatieff – Having already announced his intentions Ignatieff appears to be off and running, leapfrogging him into the role of leadership favourite. A major knock against Ignatieff has been the fact that for the majority of the last two years he has been most often spotted sharing sweater strings with widely unpopular Liberal Leader Stéphane Dion. MP LeBlanc’s presence at the 09' Federal Leadership Convention may prevent Ignatieff from becoming the race’s Dion candidate but that seems increasingly less likely if one takes into account the equation "a picture = a thousand words" and then quickly scans google images for photos of Ignatieff. Several thousand chummy photo’s with the largely unpopular and swiftly outgoing current Leader, Mr. Dion that are sure to dog Ignatieff en route to Vancouver 09'. (Previous Rank: #3)

Z.B.