Limited Enthusiasm for Electric Cars

News of greater-than-expected job cuts at Opel and general jitters about the state of the auto industry were felt at the recent Frankfurt Auto Show, Sept. 17 - Sept. 27. While the shape of the auto industry's future remains unclear.

Green is in as never before carmakers’ trumpet in how low their models' carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions can go. Another is the comeback of the East German classic Trabant as an electric vehicle.

Large and niche automakers alike are declaring the electric car the vehicle of the future. But it's unlikely that many drivers will be plugging them in very soon.

Electric cars face some sobering realities that make them more vehicles of the future rather than of the present. The biggest issues are price and usability. Costly batteries put these cars out of reach for most consumers, and infrastructures aren't currently in place to allow owners to plug in and charge up cars when they're away from home. Not to mention the slow speed of recharging them and range limitations that goes with electric technology. It is obvious, that the electric future won't come overnight.

That doesn't mean there isn't cause for excitement about electric cars, which offer the possibility of ‘zero-emissions’ driving for a potentially large number of city dwellers. However the claim of zero-emission is doubtful at least. All this means that consumers have to be patient, which isn’t a problem for them in the midst of the financial crisis and lacklustre demand.

"There are a lot of questions to be solved, and of course it will take a few years," says Stefan Bratzel, head of the Center of Automotive Research Institute in Bergisch-Gladbach, Germany. "Nevertheless, it's a major trend in the auto industry, and one can speak about a technology paradigm change."

Renault boldly forecasts that electric cars will make up 10% of the world market by 2020, but that's way beyond other estimates: Researcher IHS Global Insight (IHS), for instance, “currently predicts that electric vehicles will account for just 0.6% of total industry volume in 2020, with an additional 0.7% coming from plug-in hybrid vehicles.”

"Renault is taking a big gamble with its electric vehicle strategy," says IHS Global Insight auto analyst Tim Urquhart. Renault's bet, he says, will either succeed and "accelerate the wide-scale commercialization of electric passenger cars or [it] may leave Renault struggling to market and commercialize technology for which the customer has limited enthusiasm."

Renault - which just received €3 Bio in State aid and can count on French nuclear plants – that produce 80% of France’s CO2 free electric energy – and additionally a French Government incentive of €5000 per car create a good opportunity with limited risk. Renault is aware that they otherwise are not competitive in the automotive world.

However today's most advanced Lithium Ion batteries are still too costly, lack sufficient durability, experienced what happens to laptop batteries’ life after a year of use, and insufficiently energy dense. Automakers hide those limitations of physics and technology for the electric drive systems.

For example: What happens to all the batteries after their life span is run out? Electric cars are creating a new and possibly worse problem of what to do with all the obsolete batteries. It is strongly advised that the car industry does think ahead through the entire product cycle from fabricating the parts to disposing of the parts after they are no longer useful.

An all-electric battery powered, car is probably not the way to go. Consider driving in Southern California, Nevada, etc. deserts during the summertime. Turning on the air conditioner will gobble up enough power to drastically reduce your range. In fact you might just get stuck in nowhere. The same is true in cold climates. Turning on the electric heater may leave you stranded in a snow bank out in the middle of nowhere. So not only do you need a range of 300-700 miles as previously explained, but more power is needed to run an air conditioner and or heater. Another important aspect for practical use is to recharge the battery in less than 5 minutes.

Until battery electrics can promise ranges of 300-700 miles between charges and can be recharged from empty to full in less than 5 minutes and enough charging stations on every corner are available, electric cars will remain an unacceptable alternative to the internal combustion diesel engine. At present the technology simply doesn't exist, and is yet not on its way to make that happen. The necessary multi position infrastructures for refuelling are not in place, and very costly to materialize.

Electric Vehicles (EV) is more likely a marketing gimmick. The electric energy isn't just produced from nowhere. As numbers of EVs do increase, the cost of electricity will increase as well, as demand starts to outpace supply. The fuel burned directly in the cars now will simply have to be burned in an electric plant instead. Energy costs and pollution won't go down, they even might go up, with additional pollution problems of the toxic metals in batteries. Electricity isn't a viable option for private vehicles, except as a novelty. Consequently EVs are far away from zero-emission cars. The emissions to produce electricity needs to be added into the equation, and that aspect is conveniently left out!

Aside from the extra purchase cost of EV and Hybrid automobiles, there still is the problem of generating the electricity to charge their batteries. With the shortsighted energy policies of Governments this will be interesting to follow.

Even the enthusiasm for GM’s Volt is morphing into skepticism, with reports in several high-profile media outlets asking whether the Volt will be built at all. Some point to GM’s EV1 as an example of this automaker’s inability, or perhaps lack of commitment, to bring a real electric drive vehicle to America’s highways. 

The prestigious German weekly Auto Bild recently tested the Mercedes S350 CDI Diesel against the Mercedes S400 Hybrid with a petrol engine and electric motor. The ‘green’ results were not encouraging. The Hybrid is about €10.000 more expensive than the Diesel version, while the fuel consumption 8.8 L/100KM with an emission of 233g/KM for the Diesel is much better than that of the Hybrid, which clocked 10,8 L/100KM – of petrol fuel that is 15% more expensive - with an emission of 256 g/KM. The fuel range of 1.020KM for the Diesel and 830 KM for the Hybrid is significant too. Only the CO2 emission was slightly better 201 g/KM for the Diesel versus 189 g/KM for the Hybrid, not a big deal either.

No other type of energy does meet all the advantages of diesel fuel. Besides diesel can be generated as biodiesel w/o changing engine specs. Nuclear energy is the best option to become independent of the Middle East fossil fuel. Keeping more money in the country available for internal use, creating more jobs in the process. Coal all over the world in abundance available and in many countries easy to access can economically be processed into synthetic diesel with the help of nuclear energy.

One may wonder why such political efforts for Electric Vehicles are made? The electric car is politically motivated and will never make it despite the governmental financial support and free publicity. It is absolutely a waste of money and time. The hydrogen fuel cell is decennia off in the future, but the diesel engine will for sure be the winner, even more now bio fuels will have the future, and make politically far more sense in becoming independent from the Middle East hot spots and Venezuelan Hugo Chavez.
Effectively the subsidies from taxpayers’ money are better spent for improvements related to the quality of life.

Entrepreneurs that are interested starting their own EV business take note of the 10 steps to follow, graphically expressed in attached pictures.