Lukashenko of Belarus or his look-alike?

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Rift Widens Between Belarus and Russia

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Foreign Minister of Belarus Sergei Martynov in Riga, Latvia

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The question is not whether the President of Belarus Alexander Lukashenko has been making a choice between Moscow and the West. The issue is primarily about dairy products.

 The ban on import of almost all Belarusian dairy products imposed by Moscow earlier this month resulted in an expressive protest by Minsk. President Lukashenko’s seat in the Kremlin conference hall remained empty. He did not arrive to the CIS Collective Security Treaty Organization (CSTO) summit. Belarus did not assume scheduled presiding functions at the CSTO. Lukashenko did not sign the summit documents, including the agreement on the collective rapid reaction forces.

 In fact, the CSTO summit was a failure as its decisions appear to be illegitimate because of the need for consensus (Uzbekistan was also arguing). Belarus pointed out that it categorically disapproved decisions aimed at strengthening of  military and political security at the time when the economic security of a member-state had been undermined.

First the Russian Foreign Minister called Lukashenko's failure to appear at the summit "his private matter." However, already the first hours of the summit meeting reflected the Kremlin’s irritation about Belarusian determination to defend their acute interests. President Medvedev described the reaction of Minsk as the "meat and milk hysteria." The usual formulation, rebuke that Belarusians are allegedly „politicising” their economic problems, was put in action, too.

Moscow called Minsk to not link national security issues with the bilateral economical problems. But when Russia gains by linking economy and politics, it has no stings of remorse. Russia had linked the fate of 500 million dollar credit to Belarus with the recognition of Abkhazia and South Ossetia by Minsk, the Associated Press reported, referring to President Lukashenko.

The diary production ban on the pretext that the Belarusian manufacturers are still failing to comply with the latest technical requirements followed Lukashenko's accusations that Russia has been seeking to take over Belarus' industry and devastate the country's sovereignty.

Moscow has targeted the sensitive segment of diary products as Belarusians need guaranteed market for them in Russia, and it is too complex to redirect their flow in different direction. Russia's agriculture department suddenly concluded that Belarusian companies had been supplying dry milk for reduced price thus squeezing Russian companies from the market. Though the pricing mechanism for the Russian market does not depend on the position of Belarus; decision on the market price belongs to domestic policy issues of the Russian leadership. One can hardly blame Belarus if Russia is unable to achieve reduction of cost of milk. Russians have been willingly buying Belarusian foodstuffs. To fight against it by bringing the sanitary inspection with a set conclusion is no honest way. Even in the situation when the Russian goods have been striking a snag in the Belarus market.

It is rather poorly when at a construction site of a union state there are no integrated rules of the game. One can only wonder why the technical problems of Belarusian diary products have not been discussed in the course of regularly held joint sessions and summits. Such an uncoordinated beginning of the union state makes to impeach the motives of its builders.

The stand of President Lukashenko of Belarus by a miracle differs from his emphatical association of himself with the ideal Belarus-Russia lotus-land. One may think that Lukashenko has been replaced by a look-alike. He has stated that during his presidency Belarus will not enter the structure of any other state. However, while Lukashenko prohibits his financiers to ask Moscow for money, Russia still is and apparently will remain in the coming 10-20 years the main creditor of Belarus.

Why the contradictions have aggravated at the present time? On the one hand, they clearly have been pointed by the shadow of global crisis. Besides in recent months there has been a warming of European Union- Belarus ties, to the irritation of Russia. Belarus has joined the Eastern Partnership. Minsk is trying to demonstrate its unshakable intention to implement a many-vector- foreign policy line. Moscow perceives it as almost an attempt of alienation.

During his recent visit to neighbouring Latvia, Belarusian Foreign Minister Sergei Martynov said Belarus had no political prisoners, and opposition members who had ended up behind bars had only done so after committing crimes. "Belarus doesn't arrest anyone for their political views," he stressed. Lukashenko’s envoy made Latvians, too, to think over eventual transformation of policy line of Minsk. Talking to Minister Martynov in Riga, I got his agreement that an eventual visit of his boss to the Latvian capital is a question of near future. The issue was not discussed during Martynov’s talks in Riga, but the minister agreed that the statement of the question is proper. Will it be the “new” Lukashenko who would pack his luggage to visit the neighbouring NATO and EU members, say, the next year at the farthest?