Malaysia's Opposition Wins Crucial By-Election

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KUALA LUMPUR: Malaysia's opposition has won yet another crucial by-election in the Muslim-majority east coast state of Terengganu yesterday, its second such victory since a good showing in the March 8, 2008 general election.

Mohd Abdul Wahid Endut of the Pan-Malaysian Islamic Party (PAS) polled 32,883 votes to defeat nearest rival Wan Ahmad Wan Salleh of the United Malay National Organisation (UMNO) by a 2,631-vote majority. A third candidate, independent Azharuddin Mamat, polled 193 votes and lost his deposit.

PAS, an Islam fundamentalist party as its name suggests, is part of the opposition front Pakatan Rakyat (People's Alliance). Other partners are the Chinese-based Democratic Action Party (DAP) and the Malay-led but multi-racial PKR (People's Justice Party).

UMNO is the 'backbone' of the 13-member BN (National Front) coalition which has ruled since 1957, when Malaysia was still known as Malaya; having achieved independence from the British. In 1963, Malaya was enlarged to include the newly-independent island republic of Singapore and the two Borneo island states of Sabah and Sarawak to become Malaysia. However, Singapore left the federation in 1965 but later became a fellow-member of Malaysia in the Association of South East Asian Nations (ASEAN).

The BN has won every single general election at the federal level since the formation of Malaysia. Most of the time, it won with a two-third majority too in Parliament which is needed if the ruling party were to amend the Federal Constitution. Opposition presence in the Malaysian parliament had never been a real threat in view of their small number.

But in the 12th Malaysian general election last March, the BN suffered its worst election outing. Not only did it lose its two-thirds majority in Parliament, the ruling coalition even lost control of five of Malaysia's 13 states, something unprecedented in the political history of Malaysia. It also lost almost all of the parliament seats in the federal territory of Kuala Lumpur, Malaysia's capital city. Effectively, BN lost 14 states, said a political commentator.

The good showing by the opposition in that election also marked the spectacular political comeback by opposition leader Anwar Ibrahim. The former deputy premier was heir-apparent to then prime minister Dr Mahathir Mohamad when he was sacked as No. 2 and Finance Minister in the midst of the world financial crisis in 1997. Mahathir, an outspoken critic of the west, blamed the cricis partly on hedge-fund financier George Soros and accused Anwar of being too close to USA.

Just like the Malay proverb "sudah jatuh ditimba tangga" (after falling, hit by the ladder), Anwar was later charged in court for sodomy and corruption which he claimed was framed and politically-motivated. He was found guilty on both charges and jailed for a number of years. At that time, almost every Malaysian said Anwar was politically-finished and nobody would give him half-a-chance of making a comeback partly in view of his age.

However, the unexpected happened. Mahathir suddenly stepped down in 2003 and handed power to his new deputy and Anwar's successor Abdullah Ahmad Badawi or more popularly known among Malaysians as Pak Lah. In 2004, barely months after taking over, Pak Lah decided to seek his own mandate and brought the BN into a handsome election victory; almost wipping out the opposition including PKR led by Anwar's wife Dr Wan Azizah while Anwar was in jail.

Then in 2005, after Pak Lah secured his position, a 'miracle' happened - the Court of Appeal overturned the High Court's decision on the sodomy charge and freed him from jail. However, the guilty verdict on the corruption charge (of using his position as deputy premier to influence police investigation) was upheld. There were rumours that Pak Lah's son-in-law, Khairy Jamaluddin (an Anwar-admirer since his school days), had something to do with Anwar's release - something which both Pak Lah and Khairy of course denied.

The upholding of the corruption verdict meant Anwar would be banned from contesting in an election until mid-2008. Pak Lah, sensing the possibility of a Anwar comeback now that he was free, called for a snap election in March, a couple of months before Anwar was eligible to contest.

But it was a decision that Pak Lah would live to regret. Anwar, though still ineligible to contest, did make a comeback; albeit indirectly. This was because, unlike the 1999 and 2004 elections when Anwar was in jail, the opposition suddenly found a new leader and unifying factor in him.

Anwar's People Justice Party (PKR) teamed up with fellow-opposition parties PAS and DAP to form the People's Alliance (PR) and the result was disastrous for the BN. The result however made one man - Dr Mahathir - happy. This was because by then the former premier and his successor had a fallout, with Mahathir openly calling for Pak Lah to quit.

In a way Mahathir had suceeded - Pak Lah is indeed stepping down after the UMNO party election in March 2009, a yeart after leading BN into a humiliating defeat. Pak Lah will not be defending his UMNO presidency and will hand over to his deputy Najib Razak. By tradition, the UMNO president is also the Malaysian prime minister while the deputy president normally also become the No. 2 man in the government.

As if the March 8, 2008 election result was not humiliating enough, the BN also lost the first subsequent parliamentary by-election in August last year. The 'post-general election' by-election was caused by the resignation of Permatang Pauh member of parliament (MP), Dr Wan Azizah who after the March 8 election became Malaysia's first woman opposition leader in parliament.

Azizah's resignation was to make way for her by-now-qualified husband Anwar Ibrahim to contest so he could become an MP and parliamentary opposition leader, apparently to hasten his journey towards Putrajaya, Malaysia's new administrative capital where the prime minister's office is situated. Anwar won the crucial by-election and became the parliamentary opposition leader.

After winning Permatang Pauh, Anwar famously declared that his opposition coalition PR would seize power by September 16, 2008 through defection of MPs from the BN, notably those from the two east Malaysian states of Sabah and Sarawak. Malaya was formed on August 31, 1957 but Malaysia was born on September 16, 1963. East Malaysians had been unhappy that the federal government continued to regard Aug 31 as national day and not Sept 16. Anwar hoped to arouse the sentiments of the East Malaysians by using Sept 16 as a target date to seize power.

PR had won 82 seats on March 8 compared to BN's 140. Although 82 was not enough to form the government, it was the best showing by any opposition party since half-a-century ago. PR now needed only 30 defections to form a simple majoriy and take control of parliament and thus form the government, reducing BN's strength to just 110 MPs.

Although the 'political tsunami' which hit Peninsular or West Malaysia on March 8 somehow did not land on East Malaysia, Anwar's Sept 16 ploy did have an effect on Sabahans and Sarawakians. The Sabah Progressive Party (SAPP), a BN component, expressed no confidence on Pak Lah as BN chairman and PM, again something unprecedented. More than that, SAPP pulled out of BN just before the Permatang Pauh election, giving Anwar an extra edge. SAPP has two MPs, thus reducing BN's strength in parliament o 138. With the latest win yesterday, the opposition now has 85 MPs.

However, Sept 16 came and went and there was no mass defections as expected, let alone a change of government. This had damaged Anwar's image and eroded confidence on PR. But being the seasoned politician that he is, Anwar of course came out with one excuse after another on why it couldn't be done. "We have the number (of MPs) but the ruling party was not co-operative," he claimed, among other excuses.

So PR's victory through PAS yesterday in Terengganu, then, was the much-needed reassurance to the opposition and their sympathisers that PR was still relevant and that Anwar was still on course to becomePM. Only a matter of time, perhaps.

Yesterday's by-election was crucial also because it took place just a couple of months before UMNO deputy president and deputy premier is due to take over from his boss Pak Lah. A BN defeat would not make the in-coming party chief and premier look good, although Najib has already clinched the nomination as UMNO president unopposed.

As if the power-that-be was never confident of a victory, even in the course of the by-election campaign the government propaganda machinery highlighted the fact that the by-election was not a popularity test for Najib. And after yesterday's defeat, the UMNO-controlled TV stations and mainstream newspapers continued to harp on th issue (that the defeat had nothing to do with Najib).

Even the 'grand old man of Malaysian politics', Dr Mahathir, came to Najib's rescue. The former said the defeat was due to the voters' unhappiness with the government leadership, meaning Pak Lah.

Mahathir had, at the height of his public fallout with his successor, openly stated that he made a mistake in handing over to Pak Lah and that his actual No. 1 choice was Najib. Incidentally, Najib is the son of Malaysia's 2nd prime minister, Abdul Razak who plucked Mahathir from political wilderness and made him Education Minister which paved his way to the eventual premiership.

Mahathir was sacked from UMNO by Razak's predecessor Tunku Abdul Rahman. Razak died in Jan 1976 and was replaced as PM by his deputy and brother-in-law Hussein Onn who chose Mahathir as the new NO. 2. Mahathir took over from Hussein in 1981 and made sure that the then young Najib (Razak's son) was in his Cabinet.

When Najib becomes Premier after March, he is expected to include Mahathir's son, Muhkriz, a MP, in his Cabinet. Muhkriz is expected to win the chairmanship of the UMNO Youth movement in March with his nearest rival being Pak Lah's son-in-law Khairy Jamaluddin. The UMNO Youth chairmanship is a powerful position and the holder is normally a Cabinet Minister with every possibility of further climbing up both the government and party heirachy ladder. Anwar, for one, started his political career as UMNO Youth leader way back in the early 80s.

In-coming premier Najib is also expected to give a senior portfolio to his cousin and current Education Minister, Hishamuddin Hussein. Najib's and Hisham's mothers are sisters as their fathers were in-laws. Hisham will contest and is expected to win one of the 3 UMNO vice-presidencies in March. Traditionally, should anything happen to the deputy UMNO president or deputy premier, the PM would choose from among the trio to be the new No.2. Traditionally too, he would choose the most senior vice-president but this is not a must, as appointment of Cabinet members including the choice of DPM is the prerogative of the PM. A precedence was the case of Hussein Onn  who was not the most senior vice-president (Ghafar Baba was) when Razak chose him to replace the late Dr Ismail. Again, after Razak died and Hussein took over, the latter chose Mahathir although Ghafar Baba was next-in-line. So, Ghafar missed the boat twice although he eventually became DPM after Musa Hitam quit in 1986. But Ghafar did not stay long, having been 'forced out' by Anwar in 1994.

Talk about family affair and history repeating itself!