May I suggest Obama’s Virginia strategy?

“President Obama’s Virginia challenge in 2012

By Chris Cillizza

President Obama was the first Democrat to carry the Commonwealth of Virginia in a presidential race in 44 years. New polling from the Washington Post suggests that pessimism about the economy — particularly among independents — will complicate his calculus for another victory in 2012.

Just one in ten Virginians describe the state of the economy as either “excellent” or “good”in the new Post poll. A majority of independents (51 percent) said the economy was in “poor” shape.

That’s a stark contrast to where things stood in June 2007 as Tim Kaine was in his second year as governor and Obama’s victory was just a year or so away. At that time, 44 percent of Virginians called the economy “excellent” or “good”; just 21 percent of independents described the state of the economy as “poor” back in 2007.

Those numbers make clear that the struggles of the economy nationally are, not surprisingly, reflected in swing states heading into 2012.

But, it’s not just that the peoples’ perceptions about the economy are poor. The Post poll also suggests that independents’ positioning on economic issues more broadly has also grown more conservative.

Fifty three percent of independents now describe themselves as conservative on fiscal issues — an eight-point increase from 2007. And nearly six in ten independents (58 percent) think the government is doing too much that should be left to individuals. That number was roughly equivalent to the 56 percent of the overall sample who want the government to do less.

The economic dissatisfaction hasn’t impacted Obama’s overall approval numbers — yet.

Fifty-two percent of Virginians approve of how he has handled the job — although that number includes several days of polling done after the death of Osama bin Laden, when Obama’s numbers were considerably higher than before the killing of the terrorist.

Obama’s re-election numbers are not as positive, however. Thirty-nine percent said they “definitely” would not vote to re-elect Obama while 30 percent said they “definitely” would vote for him; 28 percent said they would consider voting for Obama for a second term.

All of these data points come nearly 18 months before the November 2012 election and, as such, are only a snapshot in time. But they do suggest that the economy’s recovery (or lack thereof) holds the key to Obama’s chances in the Commonwealth.”