McCain: Confused about the surge?

John McCain has spent the last three weeks touting the success of the surge. This remains his last fighting chance at overshadowing Obama on foreign policy matters. With endorsements of Obama’s foreign policy strategy, President Bush and Prime Minister Nouri al-Maliki have actually helped Obama over the past two weeks. McCain has given over a dozen speeches on the success of surge, and criticizing Obama for opposing it. McCain has called Obama naïve on the subject, and lost when it comes to the Iraq War. However, McCain has made notable gaffes concerning the enemies in Iraq, the cultural makeup of Iraqi’s, as well as Iraq’s border nations. His most recent gaffe may not be as forgettable or forgivable.           

            In previous articles I have mentioned Senator McCain’s danger of touting the surge as the sole success in Iraq. I pointed out various other elements that have led to turn around in Iraq; most notably, the tribal unity and cooperation. This has been one of Barack Obama’s key statements as well. John McCain has disputed that, and instead attributed the surge to the success of tribal leaders. It’s a dangerous path when we try to rewrite history; especially when we have the age of internet and youtube.

            In McCain’s eyes, there was a surge before the surge, which was a counterinsurgency. Below are transcripts of the McCain interview in which the gaffe was made, as well as another interesting link. The McCain campaign credited the surge with saving the life of one of the leading Sheik’s in the region; however, the Sheik was indeed killed during the surge. A video of McCain praising the success of tribal leaders BEFORE the surge was even announced is also included.

            During a CBS interview on Tuesday, John McCain made a stone cold error on a subject about which he claims expert knowledge: the "surge" strategy in Iraq. In an interview with anchor Katie Couric, the Arizona Republican said, inaccurately, that the surge strategy was responsible for the much-touted "Anbar Awakening," in which Sunni sheiks turned against Al Qaeda, helping in turn to reduce violence in the country.

From the transcript:

Katie Couric: Senator McCain, Senator Obama says, while the increased number of US troops contributed to increased security in Iraq, he also credits the Sunni awakening and the Shiite government going after militias. And says that there might have been improved security even without the surge. What's your response to that?

McCain: I don't know how you respond to something that is as-- such a false depiction of what actually happened. Colonel MacFarland was contacted by one of the major Sunni sheiks. Because of the surge we were able to go out and protect that sheik and others. And it began the Anbar awakening. I mean, that's just a matter of history.

McCain actually forgot one important fact. His campaign spokesman stated, "If Barack Obama had had his way, the Sheiks who started the Awakening would have been murdered at the hands of al Qaeda."

Sadly, that murder took place even with the surge underway. In September 2007, Abdul Sattar Abu Risha, the sheik widely credited with persuading Sunni leaders to turn against al Qaeda in Iraq, died in a bomb attack in Anbar. His work, prior to then, was held as a major effort in transforming the province from one of Iraq's deadliest areas into one of its safest.

In fact, as Spencer Ackerman and Ilan Goldenberg have reported, the record firmly establishes the opposite: instead of being caused by the surge, the key signs of the Anbar Awakening occurred not only before that strategy was implemented, but before it was ever conceived.

The military official cited by McCain, Colonel Sean MacFarland, described the Anbar Awakening in September 2006 four months before the "surge" was even announced,  noting that tribal leaders were "stepping forward and cooperating with the Iraqi security forces against Al Qaeda." Moreover, a military review written by MacFarland notes that his unit actually left Anbar before most of the surge troops arrived; his success in the region came between June 2006 and February 2007.

McCain himself was not always confused as to the start date of the Awakening, and whether or not it was caused by the surge. Fresh off one of his much-touted trips to Iraq, McCain delivered remarks to the conservative American Enterprise Institute on January 5, 2007. Alongside Senator Joe Lieberman, McCain specifically advocated for the newly proposed surge, and cited the already-in-progress turning of Sunni sheiks as a reason to send more troops. From the transcript of the event:

"Too often the light at the tunnel has turned out to be a train, but I really believe -- I really believe that there's a strong possibility that you may see a very substantial change in Anbar province due to this new changes in our relationships with the sheiks in the region. ... But it's important, as I said in my opening remarks, that this troop surge be significant and sustained. Otherwise, don't do it."

Sen. Lieberman also spoke about the Anbar Awakening at the same press conference while standing next to McCain:

"I wrote last week of a conversation I had after John and I and our delegation met with our military leadership in Anbar province -- a tough, brilliant, committed group of soldiers making progress there, turning the Sunni sheiks in that province to our side against Al Qaeda."

All of which raises the question: how much of the surge's history has John McCain forgotten, and when did he begin to forget it? Oddly enough, his own campaign may have primed him to make the error. In a conference call for reporters early Tuesday, McCain's senior foreign policy adviser Randy Scheunemann told reporters: "He [Obama] believes Sunnis and Shias would have made the same decision if there was not the security provided by the surge? This is ludicrous."

http://www.huffingtonpost.com/2008/07/22/mccain-gets-history-of-th_n_114419.html

 
http://www.huffingtonpost.com/2008/07/23/anbar-shiek-cited-by-mcca_n_114581.html

 
http://www.jedreport.com/2008/07/mccain-talks-ab.html