McCain Pulling Out of Michigan

Politico is reporting and Yahoo is running it  as a top headline that the McCain campaign has pulled the plug in Michigan.

Recent polls have Obama expanding a lead in Michigan to double digits in some polls.  McCain had hoped to provide more avenues to win the necessary 270 by taking a few blue states.  Michigan was one of them.  Reality has set in though that in the current economic crisis and mess, Michigan is one of the most battered states economically and Obama is simply polling much stronger on the economy and Michigan voters are turning to Obama.

McCain will go off TV in Michigan, stop dropping mail there and send most of his staff to more competitive states, including Wisconsin, Ohio and Florida.   Wisconsin went for Kerry in 2004, Ohio and Florida for Bush.

He really ha snot choice.  The most recent polls are showing Obama now gaining the lead in both Florida and Ohio.  Looking at the electoral maps, there really is no way McCain can claim the Presidency without winning both Ohio and Florida.  There really are no blue states in play for him.  I would not be surprised to see McCain follow suit soon in Pennsylvania, where pols are showing a widening lead there as well.

This is the reality McCain is facing.

2004 Results:  Bush:   286   Kerry:   252

Now, looking at states that are deemed to be pretty safe Obama right now that Bush won in 2004:  New Mexico and Iowa  (EVS:  7, IA, 5 NM)

Given those two states are Safe Obama, that puts McCain down to 274 and Obama up to 264.

McCain can play around a little in Wisconsin, but that state is widening for Obama as well.  You see the problem?  Here are the remaining tight races:

Nevada, Colorado, Missouri, Ohio, Florida, Virginia, New Hampshire, Indiana, Virginia and North Carolina.  That is 10 serious Battleground states where polls are extremely tight (although Ohio and Florida appear to be pulling toward Lean type Obama leads) and of those 10, only New Hampshire (only worth 4 EVs) was won by Kerry compared to 8 won by Bush (worth 111 EVs)

Now you can see why McCain campaign and the GOP are starting to panic.  Of those serious Battleground, the MOST RECENT polling, has Obama leading in Nevada, Colorado, Missouri, Ohio, Florida, Virginia, and North Carolina, with Obama trailing in Indiana by 2 to 3 points.

That is precisely why McCain pulled out of Michigan, and Obama has super-charged momentum.  Don’t forget, by McCain pulling out of Michigan, Obama can lessen resource sin Michigan and devote them to places like Indiana and Missouri.  It’s a good place to be.

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