More Bouncing Evidence, Election Projection Database

Well, we thought this would be the perfect time to do a snap shot of the 2008 Presidential race.  There is not any state polling being released and I suspect there won’t be any or very little until after the GOP convention ends on Thursday. (BUT, it did give Dustin a breather from state polls and allow him to beef up the Battleground pages. )

That means the Election Projection Mock Database has been fairly stable.  We have had substantial updates, as many sites update nearly everyday, but little changes in the past few days, in terms of raw numbers.  We have also increased the size, taking the database from 70 projection sites to the current 75 different projection suites.  Crazy eh?  But this is what you asked for.  The tragic the Projection Database is getting is phenomenal, growing pretty rapidly and with that, our commitment to keep this as updated as we can.  We also express thanks to those of you out there that have sent us positive comments on the database.  As always, we also thank those projection sites that choose to link to out database.  It simply helps generate more traffic for all projection sites.

Onward we go.

Ok, there has been talk in the media of this ‘lack of’ bounce for Obama coming out of the convention.  As our poll tracker to the left has shown, a bounce has occurred.  We have erased all the polls of August, because we are now in September, but last time we did an update like this, the race stood at 45% to 42% for Obama.  That was the same time CBS and ABC released polls on the same day showing the race at 45% to 42% as well.  Taking the 5 trackers taken in September with the two daily trackers (Gallup and Rasmussen), Obama now leads 49% to 42.3%.  Aggregated, he is approaching that 50% number, which he has reached in three separate pols.  In addition, check out our friends at Elect Blue and the gains Obama has made in five recent polls.  Looks like a bounce to me.

Now to the Mock Projection Database.  When we average ALL 75 Mock sites together, the race looks like this;

Barack Obama:  275.7

John McCain:  222.3

That is about a 53 point lead and Obama eclipses the 270 mark.  That’s a stark contrast form the national media that likes to say this race within 27 and that neither Obama or McCain are near 270.  They are simply wrong.  Even Karl Rove projects Obama leading by 77 electoral votes.  What??????  We are more conservative in nature than Rove?????  We may need to recheck these numbers.

Now, as some of you asked, to offset some of the projection sites that have not updated their projections in weeks, we also do an average of Mock projection sites that have updated in the last 5 days.  That is a total of 27 different sites.  This 5 day averaged number is probably the most accurate because it would include polls that came out last week, before the GOP convention started.  Here is what the race looks like if you take the five day average;

Barack Obama:  285  ( +15.4)

John McCain: 216.3  ( -17.3)

That means Obama has gained 15.4 points and McCain has lost 17.3 since our last update which was before the DNC on 8/20/08.  So, not only are polls and polling averages evidencing a bounce for Obama, but so are the electoral projection numbers.

Question that need answered over the next week or two …

1.  What will be the John McCain bounce out of the GOP convention?  (we are not liek the media, we know there will be some)

2.  How big will that bounce be?

3.  What effect will all the scandals rocking Sarah Palin have on the race?

4.  What effect will the negative barrage of ads coming from McCain in the next few days to prepare for public financing have?

5.  How will Obama respond?

6.  What effect will the Palin pick have on women?

7.  What effect will Palin have on men?

8.  What effect will Palin have on our pets?

As always, thanks for reading 3BD and we welcome comments always!

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