The Non-Mainstream Media State of the Race

The Non-Mainstream Media State of the Race

As many know by now, the mainstream media (CNN, MSNBC, CBS, and ABC -  we consider Fox mainstream extreme) like to portray a tight race, likes to convey a tightening race.  Why?  Well, for money purposes, they want voters to tune in, because they want money, advertising money, and that comes from viewership.  They also want big time viewers Election night, by making you think it will be close and a late night.  That’s what they try and convey.

The problem for them is — their viewership is dwindling as voters turn to the Internet for their election coverage.  Part of the problem is, the media coverage has been horrendous.  Why do they have to be biased at all?   Just report the news.  Oh well, the decline comes from their means and the Internet coverage thrives.

So what is the ACTUAL state of the race.  First, let’s try and understand something.  Barack Obama’s lead in the national polls is pretty stable and steady.  The media will portray a different story, such as seizing on an outlier or bad poll, like the AP poll last week, but the overall reality is, looking at the 6 daily trackers, the race has moved very little.  You think they would be embarrassed reporting some of the stuff they do.  The daily trackers have their fluctuation back and forth, 2 or 3 point gain one way, then a few days later, drifts back to where it was.  That’s natural.

But the reality — the real reality, these national polls are pretty irrelevant.   The fact is — we elect a President by Electoral College and therefore, the state polls are extremely telling right now.  Not only are state polls the ones to focus on, but with the most polling ever this Presidential race, sometimes three or four polls per state, per day, the polling is likely more accurate in the state polls, especially if all those polls are showing close to the same results.  The more polls you have in an individual state, the more people polled, the more data is available.

So where is the race then?

Let’s turn to the Election Projection Database for a peak of where we thing the race is.  You will be surprised how consistent the average numbers are.  The database has a total of 88 projection sites, 87 of which have Obama the projected leader, 83 of those 87 have Obama over the 270 mark, and 64 of those 83 have Obama over 300 electoral votes.  That’s where it stands from a broad stat point of view.  88 projection links is the high mark of the Database.

So what we do is take these sites and munch them together into a neat package of electoral college projection numbers.  We do a munch number of sites that were updated today (10/28), then we do a two day munch (10/27-28) and a five day munch (10/24/28).

What did we find?  We found Barack Obama still gaining and John McCain remarkably stable.  Here are the munched stats …

Projection Sites Updated today (10/28):  19 sites

Barack Obama:   353.1

John McCain:   170.7

Projection Sites Updated last two days (10/27-28):  36 sites

Barack Obama:   346.8

John McCain:   171.9

Projection Sites Updated over the last five days (10/24-28):  56 sites

Barack Obama:   342.6

John McCain:   168.3

First, look at how stable McCain’s numbers are.  They fluctuate a mere 3 points at most.   That tells me that McCain has a lock on approximately 170 electoral votes and that is about it.  Obama meanwhile fluctuates between 342 and 353.  These numbers are impressive as far as a healthy lead.  These comes from Battleground states that have flipped recently from Toss Up status to Lean Obama, such as Florida, North Carolina, Nevada, and Ohio.   The fluctuation are happening more on Obama’s numbers than McCain’s.  States are flipping back and forth from Lean Obama to Toss Up, but not much is flipping between Toss Up and Lean McCain.  That is why McCain’s numbers fluctuate very little.

We think the best, truest number, is likely that five day average, Obama leading 342.6 to 168.3.  That number includes 56 different election projection sites that have been udpated in the last 5 days.

If you consider a margin of 342.6 to 168.3 tight, then yes, this race is tight.

Check out our projection page to see what 3BlueDudes.com is currently projecting.  In addition, tune in for more details on our Electoral College Projection contest.  Details forthcoming.

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