Numbers guru Nate Silver: Fewer Divorces in Gay-Friendly States

Over the past decade or so, divorce has gradually become more uncommon in the United States. Since 2003, however, the decline in divorce rates has been largely confined to states which have not passed a state constitutional ban on gay marriage. These states saw their divorce rates decrease by an average of 8 percent between 2003 and 2008. States which had passed a same-sex marriage ban as of January 1, 2008, however, saw their divorce rates rise by about 1 percent over the same period.

Basing his observation on data from 43 states reported to the federal government in 2003 and 2008, Silver shows that during the five-year interval, divorce rates rose in places such as Alaska, which was the first state ban same-sex marriage in 1998, compared to divorce rate drops in states such as Massachusetts, the first to legalize same-sex marriage in 2004.

“Overall, the states which had enacted a constitutional ban on same-sex marriage as of 1/1/08 saw their divorce rates rise by 0.9 percent over the five-year interval,” reports Silver. “States which had not adopted a constitutional ban, on the other hand, experienced an 8.0 percent decline, on average, in their divorce rates.”