Obama Invading Enemy Territory

The big news after the debate today is that Obama has announced plans to enter into red states and truly contest them.  From the AP

On the heels of the campaign’s final debate, the Democrat is launching TV ads in West Virginia, which George W. Bush won four years ago and hadn’t been on the list of target states until recently, according to two Democrats with knowledge of the strategy.

The article goes on to mention that Obama will consider airing ads in North Dakota, Georgia, and Kentucky.  While ND and GA are not surprising as at one time we had that listed as Battleground States in our Presidential Projector, Kentucky has never been close to in play.  So Obama must be looking at some internals that are showing promise there.

Also from Politico.com

(Obama will) be making that case, however, on what has long been Republican turf. The Democrat heads out Friday on what aides are calling a “red state tour,” taking in Virginia, Missouri, North Carolina and Florida.

Finally the promise of shifting the Electoral MAp that Obama had long promised is coming into play.  Actually it has been in play for a long time, we are just seeing the fruits of the Obama’s campaign labors.  The Obama campaign has been in the Red states of Virginia and North Carolina from the beginnign and only recently pulled out of Georgia and North Dakota, and will likely going back there.  And now they are opening up offenses in West Virginia and probably Kentucky.

How can Obama afford to do this?  Well the fundraising advantage that Obama has bult up definitely helps.  But what is being looked over by some in the MSM is that many traditional Battleground States are now solidly in Obama’s camp.  One time tossups like Michigan, Pennsylvania, Wisconsin, Minnesota, New Hampshire, and Oregon are now polling consistently in double digits for Obama.   this allows Obama to concentrate on other states and make McCain play defense. 

However these are not wild eyed fantasies.  Colorado, Ohio, Florida, and Virginia, huge electoral states that voted with Bush in 2000 & 2004 are now consistenytly polling for Obama.  Even Indiana is extremely close for the first time in generations.  The stress on the McCain campaign was bad enough and now North Dakota and Georgia are also showing signs of a possible collapse there as well. 

Will Obama be able to sweep all these states?  No probably not.  But currently Obama leads 338-169 in our Presidential Projector with only 3 states worth 31 votes abeing true tossups.  Even if you move the bar to give Obama only states he is polling a 5% lead or more (instead of our standard 3.5%) Obama is at 277 EC votes. 

The long term consequences of this election will be discussed at length after November.  However the ability to set up offices and networks in traditional red states is a great thing for the Democratic party and will only help in mid-term and state elections down the line.  So if you are in the middle of Red Country, have Hope, Obama is on his way to a town near you.

More at 3BLuedudes.com