Obama Leads in Almost Every Poll, Some Battleground States are Mixed

by Rob Walker | October 30, 2008 at 08:42 am

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Barack Obama retains at least a 6-7 point lead in many polls, including big wins in key states like Florida and Ohio.

In overall polls, Obama leads with at least a 6 point margin, while other polls show him with up to 15 per cent of the vote. The recent Gallup polls show Obama with a 50 per cent to 45 per cent lead:

Barack Obama holds a statistically significant lead over John McCain in both Gallup likely voter models, according to Oct. 27-29 Gallup Poll Daily tracking. In the traditional model, which defines likely voters based on current voting intention and past voting behavior, Obama holds a 50% to 45% lead. In the expanded model, in which only current voting intentions are considered, his lead is 51% to 44%.

McCain is still pushing hard despite the setback in polls:

"We're a few points down, but we're coming back," McCain said, as polls showed Obama enjoying a formidable position in a slew of highly contested states the Republican needs to win.

"I've been fighting for this country since I was seventeen years old, and I have the scars to prove it," McCain, 72, said. "I'm not afraid of the fight, I'm ready for it."

Battleground States

Certain states are shoo-ins for their candidates, won long before the election was started, but others, including some that traditionally have been 'easy wins' are now up for grabs to either party

McCain still hopes he can win in his home state of Arizona, despite polls which show Obama with a lead:

Sen. John McCain's campaign is confident Arizona will remain a red state despite recent presidential election polls that indicate the Arizona senator is in a close race in his home state with Democratic Sen. Barack Obama.

Obama maintains a big lead in Minnesota:

With just days to go until the election, a new poll finds Democratic presidential candidate Barack Obama maintaining a commanding lead over Republican John McCain in Minnesota.

Soccer moms and the suburbs could be considered a 'battleground' in its own right, and Obama is leading amonst them as well:

Soccer moms and their husbands - the much-labeled, closely watched suburbanites who helped President Bush win re-election four years ago - are now serving up a national polling lead for Barack Obama in the days leading into the presidential election.

Other demographics, like IT workers, come out with their own polls; still mostly in favour of Obama:

A poll released Thursday by the Computing Technology Industry Association (CompTIA) shows that 53% of IT workers favor Obama. Thirty-eight percent said they would vote for his Republican rival, John McCain. Four percent said they would choose another candidate, and 6% said they were undecided.

Obama also seems to be leading among black voters, who usually vote Democratic in the first place. But a record numbers of early voters are coming out in support of Obama:

Apparently people are getting the message. As the presidential campaign reaches it frenzied last days, record numbers of voters across the nation are casting ballots early to ease the strain on Nov 4. About a third of voters nationwide are expected to cast ballots before Election Day.

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