Obama's Afghanistan Speech to outline Exit & Escalation Strategy

by Karl Gotthardt - albertacowpoke | November 25, 2009 at 04:51 am
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President Obama will announce his plan in a long expected decision next Tuesday, December 1st.  President Obama will address the nation at 8pm EDT from West Point Military Academy.

In his speech, which will last about 40 minutes, the President is expected to outline an escalation as well as an exit strategy.

What we know so far, is that Obama in his decision will probable include an increase of 34,000 U.S. troops to be deployed starting in March over a nine months period.  The deployment will start with a brigade each form the 101st Airborne Division, 10 Mountain Division and the USMC.

This will be the escalation that is to restore a safe and secure environment in Afghanistan.  The plan will include involvement of the State Department and Development agencies to work on governance and reconstruction of Afghanistan.

There will be a big effort to train both the Afghanistan National Army and Afghan National Police Force.  The emphasis should be to prepare Afghan Security Forces to assume responsibility for their own security within 5 years.

Draw down of NATO Forces can occur as soon as some of the Afghan security forces can take over responsibility of areas within Afghanistan.

The president will, in all likelihood, also discuss funding, without going into details.  His speech will also make an appeal to allies for greater involvement.

The three D (Defence, Development, Diplomacy(governance) approach in this strategy opens the door for some countries (Germany, France) to involve themselves in the education of governance and developmental portions of this strategy.

Obama's prime-time address, tentatively scheduled for Tuesday, will begin the White House effort to sell his revised war plan -- one leading scenario calls for sending 30,000 additional U.S. troops -- to powerful skeptics within his party, reluctant allies abroad and an Afghan public uncertain whether international forces or the Taliban will win the war.

Administration officials say the speech will outline a modest endgame for Afghanistan that would allow U.S. forces to leave and set a general time frame for achieving that result. The remarks will last about 40 minutes, officials said, roughly twice as long as then-President George W. Bush took to outline his Iraq "surge" strategy nearly three years ago.

Obama's speech is expected to include an appeal to NATO allies, which the president alluded to Tuesday, saying that "one of the things I'm going to be discussing is the obligations of our international partners in this process."

Here is the response to Obma's speech by the Sirajuddin Haqqani, a Taliban Leader of Taliban fighting in Afghanistan and Pakistan:



Sirajuddin Haqqani, posted a recorded statement on an enemy jihadist website this morning saying that his forces have decided to "take some time off."

"We've been spending a lot of time in that dirty dung heap next door (Afghanistan), and my guys want to go home and get some things done - maybe take their families on a nice vacation," Haqqani said. "We'll be back in Afghanistan sometime probably around 2013."

A number of Republicans in Washington are pointing to Haqqani's statement as proof that President Obama's announcement last night that all U.S. forces will be withdrawn from Afghanistan by 2013 was, as one called it, an "unbelievably stupid and naive strategic blunder."

A White House spokesperson today called the enemy's vacation timetable "an obvious coincidence."


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1
marianmo

i m glad he is developing all phases of his strategy, ty acp

1
Babel-Fish

01st Airborne Division, 10 Mountain Division and the USMC. have only 23000 military personel approx. 2000 would need to stay back at the bases for administation and security purposes only leaving 21,000 to be actively deployed.

UK has only so far offered 500 hundred troops Prime Minster Brown stated two weeks ago that it was expected NATO to be able to pledge 5000 troops. Down sizing and extra deployment has caused such a problem in Europe. UN however would be the best bet to raise 2000 or more?

USA has also a rather bad problem due to its commitments, to make up the figures that are being quoted in the Washington post some troops would be required to be pulled out of Iraq, this of course is a gut feeling but I could be as much as wrong as the Media frustrated by Obama's statement of wait... Media does not like to wait and sometimes goes full tilt into creative journalism.

Of course the Washington post never does this does it, lol

Looking on the Whitehouse.com site nothing much as been given away. Looking at Media head lines they seemingly indicate something different than the actual articles, lol  Got to love them... lol              

0
Karl Gotthardt - albertacowpoke

Babel I guess I should have clarified that these 4 brigades would be deployed over 9 months starting in March.  This is the start of deployment.  Because of restrictions at Kandahar airfield and ongoing operations it takes that long to send in the first three brigades. 

I also think that you will see some tour extensions of units due to rotate.  

Looking on the Whitehouse.com site nothing much as been given away. Looking at Media head lines they seemingly indicate something different than the actual articles, lol  Got to love them... lol             

This is part of the famous leaks that Obama keeps talking about.  I guess they should find out who is talking.



1
a211423

The anticipation for this announcment has resulted in many discussions here about whether to escalate and what form further intervention would take.  But I do have one question, and I wonder if Obama will talk it about it on Tuesday.  How much is this war going to cost us if we are there for five more years. 

It is unsettling that the government can make recommendations for women to not have yearly mammograms--although they did not state cost as a factor, I cannot help but think this is some kind of cost saving incentive for insurance companies.  Yet, we can commit billions to a war that we are not even sure will produce the result we seek. 

Dutch and Canadian forces are leaving.  Is this the beginning of the exodus from Afghanistan by some supporting countries?  Soon it will only be us and the British commiting lives and dollars.   

1
Karl Gotthardt - albertacowpoke

a211423 (I used the full nic because I.m afraid of Rory's reprisal lol)  .  Canada is only ending it.s military commitment.  There is full intention to commit to governance and development.  The US has basically taken over the defensive roll in Kandahar province or will have by 2011, which will hopefully create the conditions for governance and development to take place. 

1
a211423

Rory did call smk lazy, which was a bit extreme!

I hope Karsai fulfills his responsibilities in view of the international commitments his country is receiving.

 

1
Karl Gotthardt - albertacowpoke

His survival depends on it.

2
a211423

The precarious notion of supporting Mullah Omar, yet keeping him contained, is linked to the ability and strength of the Pakistan government to maintain control of its country.   I mentioned a few months ago about the Taliban taking control in Pakistan, and most people said "oh, that would never happen."  If Pakistan is supporting the Taliban in private, which I read in several places yesterday besides the one you are posted rng, then we are again giving 6 billion dollars to a country that might be financing the Taliban who can undercut progress in Afghanistan.  It's ironic that we more or less created and supported the Taliban to fight the Soviets, and now we could be doing the same thing in Pakistan, except now they could use U.S. dollars to finance miliary actions against us.  

1
snuffysmith


Is Obama Failing in Afghanistan, the Middle East, and Iran?   by Patrick Seale
Obama’s cautious, conciliatory approach has all too often seemed like dithering -- even at times like a failure of nerve -- especially in Afghanistan, the Middle East, and Iran.
more...

0
Karl Gotthardt - albertacowpoke

Thanks for this snuffy:)

1
snuffysmith

Who Will Protest Obama's War?

Justin Raimondo sees an opening for libertarians

1
Karl Gotthardt - albertacowpoke

Similar but different.  General McChrystal was appointed by Obama to carry out the strategy. President Obama made this one of his priorities during the campaign.  Afghanistan is sanctioned by the UN and also involves NATO.

0
snuffysmith


U.S. Strategy on Afghanistan Will Contain Many Messages - David E. Sanger, Wall Street Journal: In declaring Tuesday that he would “finish the job” in Afghanistan, President Obama used a phrase clearly meant to imply that even as he deploys an additional 30,000 or so troops, he has finally figured out how to bring the eight-year-long conflict to an end. But offering that reassuring if somewhat contradictory signal — that by adding troops he can speed the United States toward an exit — is just the first of a set of tricky messages Mr. Obama will have to deliver as he rolls out his strategy publicly. Over the next week, he will deliver multiple messages to multiple audiences: voters at home, allies, the leaders of Afghanistan and Pakistan, and the extremists.

1
snuffysmith

I thought that as some of you weigh what is solid and what is not in the President’s forthcoming address on Afghanistan, this speech as if by Obama (written by Tom Engelhardt) may give some sense of a serious alternative view.  

<http://www.thewashingtonnote.com/archives/2009/11/the_right_speec/>;
The Right Speech Barack Obama Won't Give on Afghanistan

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Karl Gotthardt - albertacowpoke

Snuffy I can.t get your link to work.

0
snuffysmith

STRYKER SUNSET - U.S. soldiers dismount a Stryker armored vehicle near the village of Zakuzi in Zabul province, Afghanistan, Nov. 18, 2009. Company C is conducting counterinsurgency operations in support of Operation Enduring Freedom. The soldiers are assigned to the 2nd Infantry Division's Company C, 4th Battalion, 23rd Infantry Regiment, 5th Brigade Combat Team. U.S. Air Force photo by Tech. Sgt. Efren Lopez

U.S. Will Be Out Of Afghanistan By 2017: White House -- Yahoo News/Reuters

 The United States will not be in Afghanistan eight years from now, the White House said on Wednesday, as President Barack Obama prepared to explain to Americans next week why he is expanding the war effort.

After months of deliberation and fending off Republican charges that he was dithering on Afghanistan while violence there surged, Obama will address the nation on Tuesday on the way forward in the costly and unpopular eight-year war.

Read more ....
The Taliban now know how long they must fight this war before U.S. soldiers start to leave their country. For the Afghan people who are fed up with war and continued suppression by the Taliban, and for the U.S./NATO soldiers who put their lives on the line everyday, nothing good is going to come out of this announced date of departure .... nothing good at all.

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Karl Gotthardt - albertacowpoke

That would be longer than I thought.

2
who killed rock

So another entry to exit strategy?  Just have to pray for peace.

1
Scooter Van Neuter

This article failed to mention the Taliban leader fighting in Afghanistan's apparent reply to Obama's plans.Here's an article on it:  peacemoonbeam.typepad.com/scooters_report/2009/12/taliban-announces-vacation-plans.html

0
Karl Gotthardt - albertacowpoke

Thanks for this Scooter, I posted it in the main story.

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