"October Surprise" - Linked to Georgian Crisis

1968 Humphrey vs. Nixon

Citing progress with the Paris peace talks, U.S. President Lyndon B. Johnson announced to the nation on March 31, 1968 that he had ordered a cessation of "all air, naval, and artillery bombardment of North Vietnam" above the 20th parallel. Additionally, and quite surprisingly, Johnson stated that he would not accept the Democratic nomination for a second term. As the race between Humphrey and Nixon was winding down by October 1968, with the polls indicating Nixon was in the lead, Johnson announced on October 31 a complete bombing halt of North Vietnam, once again citing that progress had been made in the Paris negotiations. Johnson hoped that the negotiations would bear fruit by the time of the election, and the Vietnam War would be officially over. With the war continuing, many liberal voters would not vote for Humphrey, and Nixon won by only 500,000 popular votes (though he did gain 110 more electoral votes than Humphrey--301 to Humphrey's 191). Bombing above the 20th parallel in North Vietnam would not resume again until May 1972 with Operation Linebacker. A vast majority of the sorties that had been flown over North Vietnam would be shifted to Vietnamese strongholds in Laos and later in Cambodia.

[edit] 1972 Nixon vs. McGovern

With less than a month remaining until the election between incumbent president Richard Nixon and Democrat George McGovern, Nixon's Secretary of State, Henry Kissinger, announced that "peace [was] at hand" in Vietnam. Nixon had vowed to end the unpopular Vietnam War four years earlier, but had failed to either cease hostilities or gradually bring about an end to the war. Nixon had essentially been assured an easy reelection victory against McGovern, but Kissinger's statement increased Nixon's already high standing with the public. This proved true when the President defeated McGovern by a 20-point popular vote margin in one of the largest landslides in American election history.