OPINION: Zimbabwe & How Mugabe Will Fall

Great Empires Crumble from within…

It is an undeniable fact that ZANU is a political entity to be respected. As the political party that was established by the nations founding fathers, ZANU has permanently inked itself into the history of Zimbabwe will live on long after Mugabe’s gone.

The Roman Empire never fell as a result of an evading army but rather, disintegrated from within its own walls.   It became fraught with political corruption as infighting made the Empire one that was ruled by the highest bidder. Its once coveted political machine became one tainted by moral degradation. Coupled with the frustration of its citizens as the quality life declined and the threat of invasion increased, the state fell apart, some would argue, as result of one human character flaw: Paranoia.

Idi Amin was removed from power, not from the threat of an opposition party or sanctions from the outside world but rather, was expelled by the fractures within his own establishment. Upon coming to the realization of this Idi Amin was now consumed by a paranoia that rendered him unable distinguished a friend from an enemy, a loyalist from a critic and thus chose to eliminate perceived threats from within his own regime. It was this form of political cannibalism that deposed Amin and led him into exile.

Therefore I present the theory that ZANU will fall as a result of infighting and political discourse on how to proceed. This is an argument I presented over a year ago, before Makoni galvanized his own corner of the ZANU establishment. Mugabe has in effect put into play the elements of his own demise. He missed his opportunity when he shrugged off the idea of appointing a successor at the ZANU National Congress. By doing so, he gave comfort (Mnangwagwa) to a few while reinforcing the concerns of many (Mujuru).

ZANU is an entity not to be underestimated, when galvanized and focused on a common threat they exhibit a remarkable efficiency in erasing that ‘nuisance’ with discipline. However, they now find themselves in a somewhat unique predicament, one in which they have become their own enemy. Some sincere elements within ZANU have become privy to the fact that they have evolved into the very manifestation of the oppression & bad governance they swore to protect its citizens from. It is this rational faction within ZANU, coupled with pressure from a united & competent MDC through the medium of sincere dialogue that Zimbabwe will be elevated from its descent into the abyss.

That’s why Makoni should not endorse Tsvangirai, it would alienate him from the rational faction of ZANU that doesn’t trust the MDC. He is ZANU’s Achilles’ here as a presents the rational with an option.

If history is to be our teacher, Zimbabwe will be liberated in large part because of a split ZANU; our president’s rhetoric and political strategies have in some awkward way been a necessary evil as it has made some allies within ZANU cringe; Mugabe has created his own Judas. I would theorize that Mugabe does not have as many allies as he would like to believe. So the task at hand is to erode his support base, heighten his paranoia and not focus pressure on him, but rather, the key elements keeping him in power.

Indeed, Great Empires Crumble from within…