Overselling Climate Change

Overheated claims Scientists advocating for action are overselling the predictive capabilities of climate models

By Roger Pielke, Jr.

The famous physicist Niels Bohr is attributed with saying that “Prediction is very difficult, especially about the future.” Anyone who pays attention to weather forecasts or economic predictions knows how true this is. But given that the future can’t be predicted with perfect accuracy, seeing predictions fail is actually an important part of their usefulness.  Whether one is faced with evacuating from a possible hurricane landfall or investing in a mutual fund, decision-making is improved when uncertainties are readily understood.

On the highly politicized issue of climate change, however, understanding uncertainties is made difficult when scientists advocating for action oversell the predictive capabilities of climate models, such as those of the United Nations Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC). But action on climate change makes sense even if many climate scientists oversell predictive capabilities.

Scientists oversell the predictive capacity of climate models when they claim that the most recent weather events occurring around the world are consistent with predictions from climate models. For example, last fall a scientist who had contributed to the most recent IPCC reports said that the intense southern California wildfires occurring at the time “are consistent with what the latest modeling shows.”  Similarly, in 2006 a Berkeley professor and climate change expert asserted that “the current heat waves throughout much of North America and Europe are consistent with the predictions of our global climate models.” A quick Internet search will reveal countless scientists who have made such claims about the predictive prowess of climate models.