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The Parable of the 'Baby' (Additional links)
On May 31, 2008, the Rules and By-Laws Committee of the Democratic National Convention will meet in Washington, D.C. to work out a compromise to a set of circumstances threatening to divide the Democratic Party, weakening its strength for battle against the Republican Party in the general election in November for President of the United States.
Before this dilemma was given birth, it must be recalled that all parties involved, who have a stake in the outcome of the meeting of the Rules and By-Laws Committee being held in Washington, D.C., the state governments and Democratic Party officials of Florida and Michigan, Senator Barack Obama and Senator Hillary Clinton and of course, the Democratic Party, knew of the penalties to be imposed if Michigan and Florida changed their respective presidential primary dates.
Members of the Democratic Party agreed, including Senator Clinton, with the plan not to seat delegates as the penalty for ignoring the Party's directives. No candidate was to campaign in either state.
In the case of Michigan, Senators Obama and Edwards removed their names from the ballot. Senator Clinton remained as the only Democratic candidate on the ballot in Michigan. She won that state but, it should be noted that, many voters, in lieu of finding their candidate, Senator Obama or Edwards on the ballot, voted 'Uncommitted' as a means to reflect their desire to vote for another not listed on the ballot. The uncommitted vote was 40%.
In Florida, the removal of candidates' names would have resulted in their disqualification to be on the ballot in the general election in November, so all the names remained on the ballot. Senator Clinton, despite giving her word, was the only candidate to campaign in Florida and won 50% of the vote, with Senator Edwards receiving 14% and Senator Obama, 33%.
Wading through all of the numbers offered by the Clinton campaign as proof of Senator Clinton's lead in this process requires that anyone considering her arguments think of any fact being listed with an asterisk, to explain that, the 'lead' she claims in the popular vote does not include the votes in Iowa and New Hampshire.
The asterisk for Senator Clinton's 'lead' in pledged delegates would read that this total assumes that she will be awarded the entire share of the total delegates, a fact in dispute since the rules issued by the Democratic Party were clear that delegates from Michigan and Florida would not be seated if they did not abide by Party rules.
It is unclear if after the committee meets and makes its decisions whether or not Senator Clinton and her campaign will accept any solution arrived at by the committee, with it being hinted that if displeased with the decision, the next level for appeal to be pursued by the Clinton campaign would be the Credentials Committee, a committee that would most likely meet shortly before the Democratic National Convention in August of this year.
As the Rules Committee is poised to address the issue, the members must be cognizant of the need to balance the desires of Senator Clinton and Senator Obama, who maintains the current lead in the popular vote and pledged and Super delegates, with any decision being a penalty for Senator Obama's campaign, as the issue being addressed would not have come to fruition had Florida and Michigan abided by Party rules.
Whatever the outcome, like the Biblical story of King Solomon, ultimately, it must be the concern, the love if you will, for the preservation of the Democratic Party that guides the Clinton campaign to accept the ruling of the Committee and work to heal the chasm that grows wider every day this remains unresolved, in an effort to 'save the baby', the Democratic Party.
A related article can be found here.
An additional article that relates to the Clinton campaign's method of evaluating statistics and polling information, provided by Politisite on June 2, 2008.
AN UPDATE:
As of the morning of the Democratic National Committee Rules and By-Laws meeting, Saturday, May 31, 2008, thousands of supporters for Senator Hillary Clinton planned to head to Washington, D.C.
Senator Barack Obama's campaign has:
.... discouraged a counterprotest, although his supporters vied with Clinton backers for the limited public seats inside the meeting.
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Of the 30 members of the Rules and By-Laws Committee of the Democratic National Committee, 13 are supporters of Senator Clinton's campaign, 8 support Senator Obama's campaign and 9 remain uncommitted.
As of approxiamtely 3:00 PM EST today, May 31, the committee adjourned for lunch to resume at 4:15 PM. As of 5:25 PM, the session has not resumed.
During the morning and into the afternoon, after a statement from Democratic Party Chairman Howard Dean, both states with delegates in question had their advocate put forward the proposal compromise hammered out in their individual states, Mr. Jon Ausman for Florida and Mr. Mark Brewer for Michigan.
One member from each campaign for each of the states, Michigan and Florida, for total of two persons from each campaign, were allowed to address the committee providing their vision of how to apportion the pledged delegates.
Each of the states represent a unique set of challenges, requiring separate solutions for both individually. In the case of Michigan, with a total of 157 delegates, there are 128 pledged delegates and 29 Super delegates at stake. The Clinton campaign would like a 73 for Senator Clinton, 55 for Senator Obama split of the pledged delegates.
The Obama campaign would like an even split, 64 - 64. The compromise figure is 59 for Obama, 69 for Clinton. The campaigns are in dispute how to divide the 'Uncommitted' vote, since there was a campaign waged by Senator Edwards and Obama for any of their supporters to vote 'Uncommitted' since their names were not on the ballot.
In Florida, both campaigns supported the Ausman Petition, which calls for full seating of the 211 delegates, with 185 of those pledged delegates and 26 Super delegates. The campaigns part company on agreement on how much each delegate's vote should be worth, a full vote or one half.
All individuals from both the campaigns of Senators Clinton and Obama called for all pledged delegates to be seated. The split on agreement occurs when deciding the weight of the vote and the split among Super delegates, who ultimately will be the deciding individuals in this primary.
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At the conclusion of the Democratic National Committee's session of the Rules and By-Laws Committee meeting on Saturday evening, May 31, the committee passed two resolutions, one each for Florida and Michigan, with both resolutions seating all of the delegates from each state.
Each delegate would have their vote equal one half vote. Each state was charged with devising a plan that will allow each of the candidates delegate approval and apportioning undecided delegates.
Harold Ickes, an advisor to Senator Clinton who voted in 2007 to strip the states of Florida and Michigan of their delegates, voiced his opposition to the resolution for Michigan, stating he was authorized by the senator to reserve her right to make an appeal to the Credentials Committee, which it is thought will be convened sometime in July 2008.
Factoring in the pledged delegate totals from Florida and Michigan, as of May 31, the new total of delegates needed to clinch the nomination is 2,118. Senator Obama had 2,050. Senator Clinton had 1,877.
CNN is reporting, as of June 3, Senator Obama, who maintains his lead in all three indicators, popular vote, pledged and Super delegates, has a total of 2,088 pledged and Super delegates and is 30 delegates shy of the 2,118 goal. Senator Clinton, at 1917, needs 201.
These latest totals do not include possible pledged delegates, a total of 31 altogether, that either candidate will receive from the two final primaries in Montana and South Dakota, being held on June 3.
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May 29, 2008 at 09:31 am by Karen Hatter, 1604 views, 22 comments
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Comments (22)
at 11:01 on May 29th, 2008
Karen Hatter, I like this story. It's good stuff.
at 11:36 on May 29th, 2008
Thank you, Rhonda.
at 12:55 on May 29th, 2008
As I have been saying for some time, Hillary was bought and paid for a long time ago, and her owners will do anything to avoid an Obama Presidency. Her owners are not Democrats or Republicans, they are 'businessmen'. They would have preferred Clinton over McCain but if they need to fall back to McCain that is better than Obama. Thus her instructions were, win, and if you can't then sink the Democrats. With the help of other egos within that party everything seems to be going according to plan.
Funny thing, even noting all the power the various party authorities and committees have, and looking at the delegate system, Americans still believe they live in a democracy and have a say in who will be President!
at 11:31 on May 29th, 2008
A very complex situation made comprehensible! Good work!
at 11:40 on May 29th, 2008
Moonwolf, thank you for your observations and the flag.
at 11:55 on May 29th, 2008
Karen Hatter, your such the politico and in french a politiste where my name comes from meaning Political Scientisit. Good job
at 11:59 on May 29th, 2008
Thank you so much, Al.
at 13:55 on May 29th, 2008
Well done again.
at 14:14 on May 29th, 2008
Thank you so much, Jordan.
at 14:23 on May 29th, 2008
Hey, I wouldn't mind if both parties split. Maybe would get some better candidates and better representation, more responsive to the people rather than corporations and lobbyists.
at 15:31 on May 29th, 2008
Karen Hatter, I like this story.
at 15:50 on May 29th, 2008
Thank you, Rachel.
at 17:54 on May 29th, 2008
Karen Hatter, I like this story. It's good stuff.
at 18:31 on May 29th, 2008
Thank you, Amy.
at 15:10 on May 30th, 2008
Karen Hatter, I like this story. It's good stuff. Elightening
at 15:39 on May 30th, 2008
Thank you, Kwapi V.
at 17:57 on May 30th, 2008
Karen good stuff. So whats your analysis of a possible Clinton 3rd party run? Is this a possibility? If so what would the impacts be?
at 19:07 on May 30th, 2008
Thanks for the flag. Depending upon the Clintons' assessment of their investment in and loyalty to the Democratic Party, only Senator Hillary Clinton, former President Clinton and those instrumental in guiding her campaign can address those questions.
at 17:00 on August 11th, 2008
Karen Hatter, I like this story. It's good stuff. I mean what is Hillary going to do when Obama is President, is she going to take the White House tour in diguise, and once in, Make it a Coup, all Wild eyed, ranting this is Mine, and this is Mine, and as the secret service carry her away, she'll rant softly, geez Guys, dont you know me? I'm Hilly Billy, you're President, want proof, as she grabs the Presidental seal and licks it, See it's mine now, it has my Germs, in ending as she is turfed out on the White House lawn, she'll be heard to wail, But Bill Promised!!! He really, really did. I used to be a sniper in Bosnia once! I wanna Nuke Iran too!! Doesn't that count? Ah yes the Rants of a Loser scorned by the American Public. All the while Obama will be overseeing this from the White House Balcony and say "That's one Crazy B*tch"!
at 18:14 on August 11th, 2008
That humor of yours! Thanks for the flag, Barry. I think he'd be more gracious than to call her that!
at 20:51 on August 11th, 2008
You know you are absolutely right Karen, I should have said his wife Michelle called her that at the top of her lungs, Barak was just thinking that~ hahahaha
at 09:12 on August 12th, 2008
I'm sure she has more class than that but may have been thinking it as well!