Pennsylvania, Politisite Exit Polls, Real Time Election Results, Breaking News & Commentary

Conclusion: 

Polls track Senator Clinton Lower than she produces in final results.  Senator Obama tracks higher than he produces in final results.  Real Clear Politics has Hillary Clinton winning by 5.7% .  Obama has produced some real negitives during this campaign cycle.  Politisite projects Senator Clinton to win by 8-12 percentage points.  Hilliary Clinton will not drop out of the race and will win by 54%-46% on the high side which is most probable 56%- 44%

The exit polls show a smaller percentage of late deciders -- 23% -- than in previous states. The economy mattered most to 54% of voters. (TV news reports say that Clinton won these folks.)

The change versus experience question has been settled: 49% said change was their top vote-generating quality, versus 26 percent who said experience was.

About 15% of the electorate was made up of new voters. 37% are gun owners.

Still petulant: more than 60% of Clinton voters say they wouldn't be happy if Obama were the nominee; about half of Obama voters say the same. 25% of Clinton supporters say they'd vote for McCain in the general election; 17% of Obama supporters say they'd vote for McCain in the general election.

 

Still, 57% of Pennsylvanians believed that Sen. Clinton "attacked" unfairly compared to 49% who thought Obama did.

Early Pennsylvania exit poll results

Highlights of preliminary exit poll data in the Pennsylvania Democratic presidential primary Tuesday:

FINALLY, THE MAIN EVENT

After a six-week lull since the last Democratic primary, Pennsylvania voters were so eager to participate in the hotly contested battle between Hillary Rodham Clinton and Barack Obama that one in 10 changed their party registration since the start of 2008 so they could vote Tuesday. The contest was open only to registered Democrats. About half the party-switchers had been registered Republicans, while the rest had been unaffiliated with either party. Another roughly 3 percent were voting for the first time in Pennsylvania.

WHO SHOWED UP

As expected, Pennsylvania's Democratic voters were overwhelmingly white and — as usual in Democratic contests — there were more women than men. About three in 10 were age 65 or over. Nearly half were from families that earned less than $50,000 last year. A quarter had household income of more than $100,000 and about as many reported having a postgraduate degree.

Three in 10 Pennsylvania Democratic voters were union members or had one in their household. And four in 10 had a gun owner in the household.

LOOKS MATTER

About one in five voters said the race of the candidates was among the top factors in their vote. About as many said that about the candidates' gender.

MAKING UP THEIR MINDS

One in five voters said they chose their candidate within the final week of the Pennsylvania campaign. About one in 10 said they made up their mind Tuesday.

ECONOMIC GLOOM

Pennsylvania Democrats had a sour view of the economy — four in 10 said the country is in a serious recession and at least as many called it a moderate recession. Only about one in 10 said the economy is not in recession.

As in earlier primaries, at least half of voters said the economy was the most important issue facing the country. About half as many said Iraq was the top issue. Health care trailed in importance.

From a partial sample of 1,421 Democratic primary voters conducted in 40 precincts across Pennsylvania by Edison Media Research and Mitofsky International for The Associated Press and television networks.

colleenfc
5 hours ago

Seniors victims of pro-Clinton voter fraud in NW Philly

While working the phone banks at the NW Philly (Mt. Airy) Obama office, there were 2 separate complaints of poll worker fraud at a community center. Wheelchair bound seniors who were to be "assisted" in voting by poll workers claimed that they asked to vote for Obama & the poll workers voted for Clinton on their behalf. The voting machines are sufficiently high off the ground to make it impossible for those who cannot stand to vote by themselves. The nursing home staff who were responsible for bringing the seniors to the came by the office themselves, outraged that despite their protestations the votes were not invalidated or redone. Very disturbing!

Hold on to your hats. I've gotten the usual word of the exit poll results from one of my usual reliable sources. He notes that Obama traditionally over-performs in the earliest exit polls, and that he expects the numbers to change as the night wears on - perhaps a reversal.

 

But right now, the exits are saying Obama 52 percent, Clinton 47 percent.

Take these results with the usual grains of salt and skepticism. I'm told that Obama is carrying blue collar workers two to one, and he's winning Philadelphia in the neighborhood of three to one.

As usual, if you're a Pennsylvanian and haven't voted yet, don't let these or any other numbers discourage you.

 

Looks like some potential good news for Obama from fladem over at Open Left as well:

 

CNN (via Markos) has some Exit Poll numbers:

 

Seniors: 61C, 38O
White male: 55C, 45O
Blacks: 8C, 92O

Despite all the down-to-the-wire campaigning, preliminary exit poll results indicate that nearly eight in 10 Pennsylvania voters made up their minds at least a week ago, and six in 10 decided on their candidate more than a month ago -- a higher number of early deciders than the norm in Democratic primaries to date.

As far as campaigning, many discern a negative tone — and more blame it on Sen. Hillary Clinton, D-N.Y., than on Barack Obama, D-Ill. Two-thirds of Pennsylvania voters in preliminary exit poll results say Clinton attacked Obama unfairly; fewer, but still about half, also say Obama unfairly attacked Clinton.

In other primaries to date, similarly, more saw Clinton than Obama as having attacked unfairly. The difference in Pennsylvania, these preliminary results suggest, is that voters there are more critical of both candidates.

With record numbers of new registrants for a primary election, voter-protection groups have reported some glitches at polling places around the region.

More than 100 complaints - several about malfunctioning machines - have been lodged so far, according to Watch the Vote 2008, a Washington-based coalition of voter groups.

Relative to other primary elections in the nation, "my sense is that the machine problems are high," said Kathryn Bookvar, an attorney with the Advancement Project, also in Washington.

She said that voters at a polling place in the 49th Ward near the Fern Rock station had to wait two hours because of machine malfunctions. Machine problems also were reported in West Oak Lane; Elkins Park, Montgomery County; and Upper Darby, Delaware County.

In addition, "numerous" registration snafus were reported to the Committee of Seventy, the Philadelphia election-watchdog organization, said John David, the election coordinator.

The bulk of those complaints have come from voters who switched parties and whose names did not appear on the rolls of the new party. The city has been inundated with calls, said David, adding: "It's swamping the voter-registration office."

I just spent a few hours on the phone bank at Obama HQ. Some voters in PA have called in stating that Barack’s name is missing from the ballots in their polling places. Two calls came in letting us know that a radio station in the area has picked up this story as well. If you know anything about it, please contact Obama HQ and ask for the legal staff. This is a priority, so they will transfer you over to a legal volunteer right away.

Justice Department to Monitor Election in Pennsylvania

The Justice Department announced today that on April 22, 2008, it will monitor the presidential primary election in the Philadelphia, Pa., to ensure compliance with federal voting rights laws. In April 2007, the Justice Department reached a settlement agreement with Philadelphia related to allegations that the city had violated the Voting Rights Act, the Help America Vote Act (HAVA), and the National Voter Registration Act (NVRA). (Read more)

In the 1980s, prosperous eastern Pennsylvania trended Republican and ailing western Pennsylvania trended Democratic. In the 1990s, culturally liberal eastern Pennsylvania trended Democratic and culturally conservative western Pennsylvania trended Republican. The east is larger--metro Philadelphia cast 33% of the state's votes in 2004 and metro Pittsburgh 20%--and the state has mostly gone its way:

Pennsylvania voted Republican for president in 1980, 1984 and 1988 and Democratic in 1992, 1996, 2000 and 2004. Metro Philadelphia, which voted 50%-49% for Michael Dukakis in 1988, voted 59%-41% for John Kerry in 2004. Metro Pittsburgh, which voted 59%-40% for Dukakis, gave Kerry only a 52%-48% margin. In 1988, the senior George Bush carried Pennsylvania east of the first mountain ridge by 53%-46%, but lost the state west of the first ridge 48%-51%. In 2004, the regions were the other way around.

George W. Bush lost Pennsylvania east of the first mountain ridge 44%-56% but carried west of the first ridge 53%-46%. These countervailing trends can best be explained by attitudes on cultural issues. Metro Philadelphia and eastern Pennsylvania are like the rest of the Northeast, liberal on issues like gun control and abortion; content with the economy, voters here moved toward Clinton-Gore Democrats in the 1990s. Pennsylvania west of the first mountain ridge, however, is full of strong-belief Catholics and Protestants and hunters who do not want their guns taken away. Relieved of economic stress, voters here moved toward Republicans in the 1990s.

 

President of the United States
Democratic Primary

 

Candidate	Votes	Percent
CLINTON, HILLARY (DEM)	0	0.0%
OBAMA, BARACK (DEM)	0	0.0%

Republican Primary

 

Candidate	Votes	Percent
HUCKABEE, MIKE (REP)	0	0.0%
MCCAIN, JOHN (REP)	0	0.0%
PAUL, RON (REP)	0	0.0%
Go to Top

Voter was turned away from polling place in Chinatown and told to go to another polling place which he does not think has a Chinese language interpreter. Poll monitor calling this in said that two other voters have been turned away from the same polling place.

The Numbers Game
2 million voters expected
300,000 new voters, 80% are college kids and Urban/Suburban Philly (AA vote)

SUSA Poll 750 voters polled factoring in media expectations
Clinton 50
Obama 44
102,000 undecided

2 million expected
If undecideds go 60/40 to Clinton
If new voters go 60/40 Obama (conservative estimate)
Clinton 52% (wins by 62,400 votes)
Obama 48%
Margin 4%

2 million expected
If undecideds split 50/50
If new Voters go 60/40 Obama (conservative estimate)
Clinton 51% (wins by 42,000 votes)
Obama 49%
Margin 2%

2 million expected
If undecideds go 60/40 to Obama
If new voters go 60/40 Obama (conservative estimate)
Clinton 51% (wins by 21,600 votes)
Obama 49%
Margin 2%

Average
Clinton: 51% (wins by 42,000 votes)
Obama: 49%
Margin: 3%

NOW if there is historic turnout Obama will win PA. Alright folks, that’s the story.

Pennsylvania exit poll data (Democrat):

(Updated throughout the day)

Update: Latest information trending slightly in Clinton’s direction, not withstanding the bogus PPP poll, which is a biased Democrat poll with unknown intentions. Hillary appears to be coming on strong on election day.

My source just confirmed their belief that HRC will win today by 7 to 9 points. He believes that the new voter registration issue is being over played in Obama’s favor. They claim to have signed up many new voters although I am not certain if I believe him on this point. Here is a good article from KYW News Radio explaining why PPP’s polling was so favorable towards Obama.