Pennsylvania, Politisite Exit Polls, Real Time Election Results, Breaking News & Commentary (012.asf)

With record numbers of new registrants for a primary election, voter-protection groups have reported some glitches at polling places around the region.

More than 100 complaints - several about malfunctioning machines - have been lodged so far, according to Watch the Vote 2008, a Washington-based coalition of voter groups.

Relative to other primary elections in the nation, "my sense is that the machine problems are high," said Kathryn Bookvar, an attorney with the Advancement Project, also in Washington.

She said that voters at a polling place in the 49th Ward near the Fern Rock station had to wait two hours because of machine malfunctions. Machine problems also were reported in West Oak Lane; Elkins Park, Montgomery County; and Upper Darby, Delaware County.

In addition, "numerous" registration snafus were reported to the Committee of Seventy, the Philadelphia election-watchdog organization, said John David, the election coordinator.

The bulk of those complaints have come from voters who switched parties and whose names did not appear on the rolls of the new party. The city has been inundated with calls, said David, adding: "It's swamping the voter-registration office."

I just spent a few hours on the phone bank at Obama HQ. Some voters in PA have called in stating that Barack’s name is missing from the ballots in their polling places. Two calls came in letting us know that a radio station in the area has picked up this story as well. If you know anything about it, please contact Obama HQ and ask for the legal staff. This is a priority, so they will transfer you over to a legal volunteer right away.

Justice Department to Monitor Election in Pennsylvania

The Justice Department announced today that on April 22, 2008, it will monitor the presidential primary election in the Philadelphia, Pa., to ensure compliance with federal voting rights laws. In April 2007, the Justice Department reached a settlement agreement with Philadelphia related to allegations that the city had violated the Voting Rights Act, the Help America Vote Act (HAVA), and the National Voter Registration Act (NVRA). (Read more)

In the 1980s, prosperous eastern Pennsylvania trended Republican and ailing western Pennsylvania trended Democratic. In the 1990s, culturally liberal eastern Pennsylvania trended Democratic and culturally conservative western Pennsylvania trended Republican. The east is larger--metro Philadelphia cast 33% of the state's votes in 2004 and metro Pittsburgh 20%--and the state has mostly gone its way:

Pennsylvania voted Republican for president in 1980, 1984 and 1988 and Democratic in 1992, 1996, 2000 and 2004. Metro Philadelphia, which voted 50%-49% for Michael Dukakis in 1988, voted 59%-41% for John Kerry in 2004. Metro Pittsburgh, which voted 59%-40% for Dukakis, gave Kerry only a 52%-48% margin. In 1988, the senior George Bush carried Pennsylvania east of the first mountain ridge by 53%-46%, but lost the state west of the first ridge 48%-51%. In 2004, the regions were the other way around.

George W. Bush lost Pennsylvania east of the first mountain ridge 44%-56% but carried west of the first ridge 53%-46%. These countervailing trends can best be explained by attitudes on cultural issues. Metro Philadelphia and eastern Pennsylvania are like the rest of the Northeast, liberal on issues like gun control and abortion; content with the economy, voters here moved toward Clinton-Gore Democrats in the 1990s. Pennsylvania west of the first mountain ridge, however, is full of strong-belief Catholics and Protestants and hunters who do not want their guns taken away. Relieved of economic stress, voters here moved toward Republicans in the 1990s.

 

President of the United States
Democratic Primary

 

Candidate	Votes	Percent
CLINTON, HILLARY (DEM)	0	0.0%
OBAMA, BARACK (DEM)	0	0.0%

Republican Primary

 

Candidate	Votes	Percent
HUCKABEE, MIKE (REP)	0	0.0%
MCCAIN, JOHN (REP)	0	0.0%
PAUL, RON (REP)	0	0.0%
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Voter was turned away from polling place in Chinatown and told to go to another polling place which he does not think has a Chinese language interpreter. Poll monitor calling this in said that two other voters have been turned away from the same polling place.

The Numbers Game
2 million voters expected
300,000 new voters, 80% are college kids and Urban/Suburban Philly (AA vote)

SUSA Poll 750 voters polled factoring in media expectations
Clinton 50
Obama 44
102,000 undecided

2 million expected
If undecideds go 60/40 to Clinton
If new voters go 60/40 Obama (conservative estimate)
Clinton 52% (wins by 62,400 votes)
Obama 48%
Margin 4%

2 million expected
If undecideds split 50/50
If new Voters go 60/40 Obama (conservative estimate)
Clinton 51% (wins by 42,000 votes)
Obama 49%
Margin 2%

2 million expected
If undecideds go 60/40 to Obama
If new voters go 60/40 Obama (conservative estimate)
Clinton 51% (wins by 21,600 votes)
Obama 49%
Margin 2%

Average
Clinton: 51% (wins by 42,000 votes)
Obama: 49%
Margin: 3%

NOW if there is historic turnout Obama will win PA. Alright folks, that’s the story.

Pennsylvania exit poll data (Democrat):

(Updated throughout the day)

Update: Latest information trending slightly in Clinton’s direction, not withstanding the bogus PPP poll, which is a biased Democrat poll with unknown intentions. Hillary appears to be coming on strong on election day.

My source just confirmed their belief that HRC will win today by 7 to 9 points. He believes that the new voter registration issue is being over played in Obama’s favor. They claim to have signed up many new voters although I am not certain if I believe him on this point. Here is a good article from KYW News Radio explaining why PPP’s polling was so favorable towards Obama.