Politisite Exit Polls, Real Time Election Results, Breaking News & Commentary from Pennsylvania
by Albert N. Milliron, Chief Political Correspondent Iron Mill Interactive Media Inc. & Politisite.com
Our preamble has been moved to the bottom of this story to facilitate your ability to see the latest updates without having to scroll.
8:21 pm - Stand by for video upload from Clinton Campaign
8:11 pm only 10% of voters are 18-29 bad signal for Obama, 17% 30-44, 35% 45-59, and 38% 60+ good sign for Clinton
8:09 pm - No results from SOS office please stand by
For fun I have CNN teleprompter on downlink. Turn on CNN and exactly at 8 PM you will hear the the following: Reggie Reads, Good Evening from CNN worlds headquarters in Atlanta, I am Reggie
7:53 pm - 7 minutes until polls close in PA
7:31 pm -
The exit polls show a smaller percentage of late deciders -- 23% -- than in previous states. The economy mattered most to 54% of voters. (TV news reports say that Clinton won these folks.)
The change versus experience question has been settled: 49% said change was their top vote-generating quality, versus 26 percent who said experience was.
About 15% of the electorate was made up of new voters. 37% are gun owners.
Still petulant: more than 60% of Clinton voters say they wouldn't be happy if Obama were the nominee; about half of Obama voters say the same. 25% of Clinton supporters say they'd vote for McCain in the general election; 17% of Obama supporters say they'd vote for McCain in the general election.
Still, 57% of Pennsylvanians believed that Sen. Clinton "attacked" unfairly compared to 49% who thought Obama did.
7:24 pm -
Early Pennsylvania exit poll results
Highlights of preliminary exit poll data in the Pennsylvania Democratic presidential primary Tuesday:
FINALLY, THE MAIN EVENT
After a six-week lull since the last Democratic primary, Pennsylvania voters were so eager to participate in the hotly contested battle between Hillary Rodham Clinton and Barack Obama that one in 10 changed their party registration since the start of 2008 so they could vote Tuesday. The contest was open only to registered Democrats. About half the party-switchers had been registered Republicans, while the rest had been unaffiliated with either party. Another roughly 3 percent were voting for the first time in Pennsylvania.
WHO SHOWED UP
As expected, Pennsylvania's Democratic voters were overwhelmingly white and — as usual in Democratic contests — there were more women than men. About three in 10 were age 65 or over. Nearly half were from families that earned less than $50,000 last year. A quarter had household income of more than $100,000 and about as many reported having a postgraduate degree.
Three in 10 Pennsylvania Democratic voters were union members or had one in their household. And four in 10 had a gun owner in the household.
About one in five voters said the race of the candidates was among the top factors in their vote. About as many said that about the candidates' gender.
MAKING UP THEIR MINDS
One in five voters said they chose their candidate within the final week of the Pennsylvania campaign. About one in 10 said they made up their mind Tuesday.
Pennsylvania Democrats had a sour view of the economy — four in 10 said the country is in a serious recession and at least as many called it a moderate recession. Only about one in 10 said the economy is not in recession.
As in earlier primaries, at least half of voters said the economy was the most important issue facing the country. About half as many said Iraq was the top issue. Health care trailed in importance.
From a partial sample of 1,421 Democratic primary voters conducted in 40 precincts across Pennsylvania by Edison Media Research and Mitofsky International for The Associated Press and television networks.
Polls will close in 51 minutes at 8 pm ET. John Melloncamp is doing a sound check in IN
7:05 pm - Politisite will be providing numbers directly from the Secratary of States office in Harrisburg PA. The first numbers will be early voters and the numbers will not reflect the outcome.
7;02 pm - Obama is in Evansville IN Where John Melloncamp will perform this evening. We will bring some video of that concert as we have a downlink on satellite
7:01 pm - Politisite will project Clinton a winnner in Pennsylvania ahead of the networks
6:54pm - CNN: "Sen. Barack Obama scored big with new Democrats in Pennsylvania, early exit polls show. One out of every seven Democratic party voters was not registered as a Democrat at the beginning of the year, and 60 percent of them cast their ballot for Obama, according to the exit polls." Sounds like Operation Chaos may have been overwhelmed. - TOM BEVAN
6:46 pm -
Hold on to your hats. I've gotten the usual word of the exit poll results from one of my usual reliable sources. He notes that Obama traditionally over-performs in the earliest exit polls, and that he expects the numbers to change as the night wears on - perhaps a reversal.
But right now, the exits are saying Obama 52 percent, Clinton 47 percent.
Take these results with the usual grains of salt and skepticism. I'm told that Obama is carrying blue collar workers two to one, and he's winning Philadelphia in the neighborhood of three to one.
As usual, if you're a Pennsylvanian and haven't voted yet, don't let these or any other numbers discourage you.
Looks like some potential good news for Obama from fladem over at Open Left as well:
CNN (via Markos) has some Exit Poll numbers:
Seniors: 61C, 38O
White male: 55C, 45O
Blacks: 8C, 92O
6:35 pm - I also noticed that there is a NowPublic Election going on as well. Running the Numbers: Is A Leaderboard a Good Idea? (Opinion, Survey) I will see if I can find any exit polls or PR firms spindoctoring. Looks like I won't be president of NP unless they devide the numbers by time as a contributer.
6:22 pm - Exit polls are showing gender gap as Women go for Clinton 55% Obama 44, Men go for Obama 53% to 47% Drudge is reporting Clinton winning by 52% to Obama 48%
6:21 pm- Drudge has leaked exit polls EXIT POLLS: Negative Tone Tarnishes Dems
Despite all the down-to-the-wire campaigning, preliminary exit poll results indicate that nearly eight in 10 Pennsylvania voters made up their minds at least a week ago, and six in 10 decided on their candidate more than a month ago -- a higher number of early deciders than the norm in Democratic primaries to date.
As far as campaigning, many discern a negative tone — and more blame it on Sen. Hillary Clinton, D-N.Y., than on Barack Obama, D-Ill. Two-thirds of Pennsylvania voters in preliminary exit poll results say Clinton attacked Obama unfairly; fewer, but still about half, also say Obama unfairly attacked Clinton.
In other primaries to date, similarly, more saw Clinton than Obama as having attacked unfairly. The difference in Pennsylvania, these preliminary results suggest, is that voters there are more critical of both candidates.
5:30 pm - Politisite is uploading a test video from our satellite down link. Please let us know if it is of good quality
5:08 pm - Scott Rasmussen just stated that Clinton 51% Obama 49%. Politisite sees Clinton up by 8-11 % Late decider's are breaking toward Hilliary as we reported earlier today. They are saying 6-4 for Clinton, same numbers we reported. Late decider's are those who made up their mind 48 hours prior to election
4:07 pm - Voter Machine Problems in West Philly
With record numbers of new registrants for a primary election, voter-protection groups have reported some glitches at polling places around the region.
More than 100 complaints - several about malfunctioning machines - have been lodged so far, according to Watch the Vote 2008, a Washington-based coalition of voter groups.
Relative to other primary elections in the nation, "my sense is that the machine problems are high," said Kathryn Bookvar, an attorney with the Advancement Project, also in Washington.
She said that voters at a polling place in the 49th Ward near the Fern Rock station had to wait two hours because of machine malfunctions. Machine problems also were reported in West Oak Lane; Elkins Park, Montgomery County; and Upper Darby, Delaware County.
In addition, "numerous" registration snafus were reported to the Committee of Seventy, the Philadelphia election-watchdog organization, said John David, the election coordinator.
The bulk of those complaints have come from voters who switched parties and whose names did not appear on the rolls of the new party. The city has been inundated with calls, said David, adding: "It's swamping the voter-registration office."
4:04 pm - Politisite does NOT have confirmation on this
I just spent a few hours on the phone bank at Obama HQ. Some voters in PA have called in stating that Barack’s name is missing from the ballots in their polling places. Two calls came in letting us know that a radio station in the area has picked up this story as well. If you know anything about it, please contact Obama HQ and ask for the legal staff. This is a priority, so they will transfer you over to a legal volunteer right away.
3:28 pm - Due to Black polling stations turning away Hispanics who can't speak English the USDJ will monitor these polling stations that had problems last voting cycle. The Clinton campaign made this request as she gets more of the Hispanic vote
Justice Department to Monitor Election in Pennsylvania
The Justice Department announced today that on April 22, 2008, it will monitor the presidential primary election in the Philadelphia, Pa., to ensure compliance with federal voting rights laws. In April 2007, the Justice Department reached a settlement agreement with Philadelphia related to allegations that the city had violated the Voting Rights Act, the Help America Vote Act (HAVA), and the National Voter Registration Act (NVRA). (Read more)
3:20 pm - Our source in Philadelphia says that undecided voters who made a decision within the last 24 hours are splitting 6-4 For Clinton
Pennsylvania Political History
In the 1980s, prosperous eastern Pennsylvania trended Republican and ailing western Pennsylvania trended Democratic. In the 1990s, culturally liberal eastern Pennsylvania trended Democratic and culturally conservative western Pennsylvania trended Republican. The east is larger--metro Philadelphia cast 33% of the state's votes in 2004 and metro Pittsburgh 20%--and the state has mostly gone its way:
Pennsylvania voted Republican for president in 1980, 1984 and 1988 and Democratic in 1992, 1996, 2000 and 2004. Metro Philadelphia, which voted 50%-49% for Michael Dukakis in 1988, voted 59%-41% for John Kerry in 2004. Metro Pittsburgh, which voted 59%-40% for Dukakis, gave Kerry only a 52%-48% margin. In 1988, the senior George Bush carried Pennsylvania east of the first mountain ridge by 53%-46%, but lost the state west of the first ridge 48%-51%. In 2004, the regions were the other way around.
George W. Bush lost Pennsylvania east of the first mountain ridge 44%-56% but carried west of the first ridge 53%-46%. These countervailing trends can best be explained by attitudes on cultural issues. Metro Philadelphia and eastern Pennsylvania are like the rest of the Northeast, liberal on issues like gun control and abortion; content with the economy, voters here moved toward Clinton-Gore Democrats in the 1990s. Pennsylvania west of the first mountain ridge, however, is full of strong-belief Catholics and Protestants and hunters who do not want their guns taken away. Relieved of economic stress, voters here moved toward Republicans in the 1990s.
1:58 pm -some turned away due to language barrier
Voter was turned away from polling place in Chinatown and told to go to another polling place which he does not think has a Chinese language interpreter. Poll monitor calling this in said that two other voters have been turned away from the same polling place.
1:52 pm - Bill Clinton on WHYY interview uses foul language as he hangs up. Listen closely to the end of the interview. We have all heard of the Clinton Foul Mouths. In many books on Hillary and secret service workers she would say things like, you stay the !@#$ back 10 feet! Bill must have the potty mouth as well as he gets heated AGAIN over his statements in SC.
1:44 pm - Politisite - you will see the MSM talk about Hillary's fate today. That PA could be her stopping point. Understand this is media hype to grab the audience into the stories. You ever watch deal or no deal? The big answer will come... when we come back. Same idea. The word in the Clinton Camp is that she is going no where no matter the outcome. She is putting her bets on the Dean 25 in the credentials committee at the convention. Politisite will be at the DNCC to report live the results of that issue.
1:41 pm -
The Numbers Game
2 million voters expected
300,000 new voters, 80% are college kids and Urban/Suburban Philly (AA vote)
SUSA Poll 750 voters polled factoring in media expectations
2 million expected
If undecideds go 60/40 to Clinton
If new voters go 60/40 Obama (conservative estimate)
Clinton 52% (wins by 62,400 votes)
2 million expected
If undecideds split 50/50
If new Voters go 60/40 Obama (conservative estimate)
Clinton 51% (wins by 42,000 votes)
2 million expected
If undecideds go 60/40 to Obama
If new voters go 60/40 Obama (conservative estimate)
Clinton 51% (wins by 21,600 votes)
Clinton: 51% (wins by 42,000 votes)
NOW if there is historic turnout Obama will win PA. Alright folks, that’s the story.
Here is our first Exit poll data from Philadelphia
1:37 pm -
Pennsylvania exit poll data (Democrat):
(Updated throughout the day)
Update: Latest information trending slightly in Clinton’s direction, not withstanding the bogus PPP poll, which is a biased Democrat poll with unknown intentions. Hillary appears to be coming on strong on election day.
My source just confirmed their belief that HRC will win today by 7 to 9 points. He believes that the new voter registration issue is being over played in Obama’s favor. They claim to have signed up many new voters although I am not certain if I believe him on this point. Here is a good article from KYW News Radio explaining why PPP’s polling was so favorable towards Obama.
Other NowPublic Stories on the Pennsylvania Primary
Hello all you pundits, politicos, politstes, pollsters, politisites, political junkies, and casual political readers. Your at the right place for exit polling data that is beginning to leak from Pennsylvania. We will start with brining you that coverage first.
Later, tonight when the polls close we will bring you real time election results right from the Pennsylvania election department of the Secretary of States offices.
We often receive chatter from the campaigns, sometimes called leaks to the press. Politisite has sources in both campaigns so you will be sure to hear some of those stories here first. We suggest you check back several times during the night as we will be providing updates every few minutes following the close of the polls.
If there is any problems at any of the polling stations, those reports are a matter of public record. if any legal action takes place, you will hear that here as well.
Our extensive satellite equipment is on line for this primary. We will provide video as it unfolds from on scene
The Politisite Bottom line is that you should keep NowPublic and Politisite Blogs in Que for updates throughout the night until all of the results are in. You are at the Nets HOT SPOT for all of Pennsylvania's election coverage