Pennsylvania Primary 2010, Arlen Spector and Primary Tuesday

by NowPublic Staff | May 18, 2010 at 09:33 am

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Primary Tuesday: Primaries in Pennsylvania, Arkansas, Kentucky, and Oregon: Prelude to November Mid-terms?

Depending on your perspective, Primary Tuesday is either a referendum on the Democrats and the Obama administration or it is just another set of primaries where only the partisan, committed few come out to vote.

Pennsylvania Primary Election 2010 Candidates
Arkansas Primary Election 2010 Candidates
Kentucky Primary Election 2010 Candidates
Oregon Primary Election 2010 Candidates

Though 4 states Pennsylvania, Arkansas, Kentucky, and Oregon all have primaries a lot of the attention is focusing on Pennsylvania and the fate of long-time senator Arlen Spector.

Now a Democrat, Arlen Spector was a long time Republican switching sides just last year.

His opponent is Republican Pat Tooney and so far the advance polling shows the race is a toss up.

Regardless, of which primary one is interested it would be wise not to over interpret the results. Simply put, it is a easy story for the media to cover -filled with provocative words and phrases to describe the impact of Tuesday's primaries: words and phrases like Revolution, Tea Party tipping point, Republican tsunami.

Pundits will read the tea leaves and confidently predict the future - well, all of it could be bogus.

Yes, there is anger right now against incumbents whether Republican or Democrat. Yes, Tea Party backed candidates are an un-known factor, the list goes on.

Will today's results also be interpreted as a stinging defeat for President Barack Obama, who campaigned for Specter and made a radio ad urging Arkansans for vote for Lincoln? Yes, they will, and you will also hear somebody predict that this is an early sign that Obama is on the way to losing his job in 2012.

Don't buy it (at least not yet). Presidents are frequently disappointed when they try to transfer their popularity to candidates in a mid-term year. More often than not, at least in recent history, those setbacks have little or nothing to do with the president's own re-election prospects.

However, what is not clear is what will Tuesday's results mean for November? Frankly, no one knows, Not matter what you may hear on CNN, Fox or MSNBC November in terms electoral opinion is a life time. There are some many things that can and will happen that will change between now and November so that the current political calculus means nothing.