Pentagon Tests Two Options for Afghanistan Strategy

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Admiral Mike Mullen oversaw a secret war game this month to test and evaluate options that have been included in General McChrystal's report.

The two options tested was the likely outcome by inserting 40,000 troops for a major counter-insurgency operation.  The second option concentrated on inserting 10-15,000 troops dubbed counter-terrorism plus.

In modern military forces war games are often used to test plans.  As is common with any computer generated test, the results are based on assumptions made by those conducting the war game.  War games seldom include such things as troop morale, take into account their mental state, the effect of weather and fatigue factor.

War games also presume that knowledge of the enemies' tactics and mode de operandi.  With the constant adaption of the Taliban, to the situation this may be a difficult thing to input into your assumption.  So at the very best the results of the war game are based on your best guess assumptions.

The result of these war games have been passed to the President and his NSC advisers.

When I read the report, which was dubbed secret, I wondered why these war games would be leaked at this point.  It would seem appropriate to me that President Obama would have explained how he arrived at his decision when he made the announcement.

The Pentagon, Secretary Gates, Admiral Mullen and General McChrystal appear to have already endorsed the 40,000 troop option. 

As an aside CBC Newsnet, yes new name, reported this morning that a Canadian Forces report concluded that as many casualties are being lost in Afghanistan now as there were after the Soviets had been there for nine years.  The Soviets withdrew at that point.

Afghanistan continues to be a challenge to NATO, as it was for the Soviet Army.  With run-off elections on November 7th and the lack of a stable government that can.t reach beyond Kabul, NATO and President Obama must define the goal of this mission.  Is it nation building or is it something else?  What price is NATO willing to pay?  How will the Afghan government extend its reach beyond Kabul?

These are all questions that should be answered before determining how to achieve the goal for the Afghan mission.  My guess is that General McChrystal did just that.

The waiting game on a decision continues.