Politisite Political Projections - North Carolina

SurveyUSA

SurveyUSAFigure 1. SurveyUSA Blue = Obama Red = Clinton

Public Policy Polling

 

Figure 2. Public Policy Polling Obama = Blue Clinton = Red

Rasmussen

 

Figure 3. Rasmussen Obama = Blue Clinton = Red

Insider Advantage

 

Figure 4 Insider Advantage Blue = Obama Red = Clinton

American Research Group

 

Figure 5. America Research Group Obama = Blue Clinton = Red

Zogby daily Tracking Poll

Figure 6. Obama= Blue Clinton = Red

The data shows Senator Clinton with a Clear lead in November 5 of 24 percentages points. A reversal took place at the beginning of the new year were Senator Obama and Senator Clinton were tied. Obama gains momentum after winning the the Iowa Caucus win on January 3. Senator Obama continues momentum to a 10 point gain after winning the South Carolina Primary. Obama has hovered in the 50 percentage range since February 11th. Senator Clinton lost momentum following the loss in Iowa. She wins New Hampshire which gave her a temporary boost until South Carolina. Her numbers are the only ones that have changed. Clinton has gained momentum following the Rev. Wright issues and her coming out with a gas tax summer holiday which Obama is opposing. Oil prices hit a new high on May 5th. Clinton has gained 5 percentage points over the last 28 days. Based upon these polls it appears that Obama number are steady while Clinton's numbers are rising steadily. Recently polling has Obama up by 8 percentage points. Remember in Pennsylvania we said we think Obama polls better Then outcomes and Clinton polls lower then outcome. The case where this conclusion was wrong was South Carolina. North Carolina has about half the African American population as South Carolina. There is about 8 percent of voters whoa are still undecided. We think that Clinton is gaining votes due to recent momentum at a rate of 1.5% to Obama 1%. .