Politisite Political Projections: Texas Two Step

Super Tuesday Two: Texas
Politisite Political Projections

By Albert N. Milliron,

Chief Political Correspondent

Iron Mill Interactive Media, Inc / Politisite.com

Web Posted March 4, 2008 12:01 am. EST, 0500 UTC

Outlook:
 

1. Recent polling
   
   
   
   1. Rasmussen: Daily tracking poll shows Clinton winning by 16% points on Feb. 14 trending downwards to Feb. 24 at 1% point ahead. A reversal takes place Feb. 27 to Obama +4%. Obama began trending downward to Mar. 3 +1% above Clinton. SurveyUSA Shows Clinton +5% trending downward to reversal with Obama leading by 4%. Obama's lead declines to +1% on Mar. 2. Inside Advantage: Shows Clinton ahead by 7% points on Feb. 12. Downward trend to 5% on last poll on Feb. 27.
   
   
2. Texas delegate awarding method.
   
   
   
   1. Texas is a difficult to calculate the possible outcome of the race. Delegates are not won by winning the popular vote in Texas. Delegate votes will be awarded by the 31 state senate districts. The delegates are awarded by the Democratic vote in the 2006 Governors race and 2004 Presidential election. You can win the popular vote and lose the race in delegates.
   
   
3. Demographics
   
   
   
   1. The belief that Hispanics will flock to Clinton may be over stated according to Evans-Novak. The inter-racial disdain between Blacks and Hispanics may not be widespread enough to cause a major loss of vote by Obama.
   
   
4. Tony Rezko
   
   
   
   1. Antoin “Tony” Rezko is in the news negativity affecting Senator Obama. Jury selection is on going in the Chicago businessman's political corruption trial. Obama is receiving more questions from media leading up to Tuesdays election. Rezko, a land developer, gave the Obama campaign more than $150,000. Obama told reporters that he has given most of the money in Rezko-related contributions to charity. Obama stated to reporters that, he made a mistake” questioning Obama's judgment.
   
   
5. Saturday Night Live Appearance.
   
   
   
   1. Hilliary Clinton's appearance on NBC's Saturday Night Live has shown Hillary's, “Other side” where she appeared with the actress who plays her. While we are beginning to see a multiple personality syndrome with Hilliary, the appearance will positively help her in Tuesday.
   
   
6. Republican's Voting in Democratic Primary
   
   
   
   1. Talk show host Rush Limbaugh and others have urged people to vote in the Democratic primary. With John McCain the Presumptive Republican nominee some voters will vote in the Democratic primary for Hilliary due to her negative likability factors.
   
   
7. Caucus vs Primary
   
   
   
   1. Barack Obama has the best ground game for Caucus voters. The Texas Two Step as it is widely known is a primary than following the closing polls have a caucus. Folks can actually vote twice legally in Texas. Bill Clinton has been sharing this to eastern Texans with large turnouts.

Obama: Enjoys most of the Poll wins today with him winning 3 of 4 pollsters. He has not trended above 50% in any of the polls today. A regional poll had him at 51% on Friday.

Clinton: Enjoyed most of the Major poll leads up to Feb. 20 were a reversal occurred toward Obama

Conclusion:

Obama: Wins at 51% Points

Clinton: loses with 49% points

Outcome of Delegates- Obama will win majority of Delegates.