Politisite Political Projections: Texas Two Step
By Albert N. Milliron, Chief Political Correspondent,
Iron Mill Interactive Media, Inc / Politisite.com
Web Posted March 4, 2008 12:01 am. EST, 0500 UTC
- Recent polling
- Rasmussen: Daily tracking poll shows Clinton winning by 16% points on Feb. 14 trending downwards to Feb. 24 at 1% point ahead. A reversal takes place Feb. 27 to Obama +4%. Obama began trending downward to Mar. 3 +1% above Clinton. SurveyUSA Shows Clinton +5% trending downward to reversal with Obama leading by 4%. Obama's lead declines to +1% on Mar. 2. Inside Advantage: Shows Clinton ahead by 7% points on Feb. 12. Downward trend to 5% on last poll on Feb. 27.
- Texas delegate awarding method.
- Texas is a difficult to calculate the possible outcome of the race. Delegates are not won by winning the popular vote in Texas. Delegate votes will be awarded by the 31 state senate districts. The delegates are awarded by the Democratic vote in the 2006 Governors race and 2004 Presidential election. You can win the popular vote and lose the race in delegates.
- The belief that Hispanics will flock to Clinton may be over stated according to Evans-Novak. The inter-racial disdain between Blacks and Hispanics may not be widespread enough to cause a major loss of vote by Obama.
- Tony Rezko
- Antoin “Tony” Rezko is in the news negativity affecting Senator Obama. Jury selection is on going in the Chicago businessman's political corruption trial. Obama is receiving more questions from media leading up to Tuesdays election. Rezko, a land developer, gave the Obama campaign more than $150,000. Obama told reporters that he has given most of the money in Rezko-related contributions to charity. Obama stated to reporters that, he made a mistake” questioning Obama's judgment.
- Saturday Night Live Appearance.
- Hilliary Clinton's appearance on NBC's Saturday Night Live has shown Hillary's, “Other side” where she appeared with the actress who plays her. While we are beginning to see a multiple personality syndrome with Hilliary, the appearance will positively help her in Tuesday.
- Republican's Voting in Democratic Primary
- Talk show host Rush Limbaugh and others have urged people to vote in the Democratic primary. With John McCain the Presumptive Republican nominee some voters will vote in the Democratic primary for Hilliary due to her negative likability factors.
- Caucus vs Primary
- Barack Obama has the best ground game for Caucus voters. The Texas Two Step as it is widely known is a primary than following the closing polls have a caucus. Folks can actually vote twice legally in Texas. Bill Clinton has been sharing this to eastern Texans with large turnouts.
Obama: Enjoys most of the Poll wins today with him winning 3 of 4 pollsters. He has not trended above 50% in any of the polls today. A regional poll had him at 51% on Friday.
Clinton: Enjoyed most of the Major poll leads up to Feb. 20 were a reversal occurred toward Obama
Obama: Wins at 51% Points
Clinton: loses with 49% points
Outcome of Delegates- Obama will win majority of Delegates.
What Others Are Saying
Obama Revolution: Texas and Ohio Super Tuesday 2
The most recent polls show Hillary Clinton and Barack Obama in a statistical tie going into what has been termed Super Tuesday II tomorrow. The Ohio Plain Dealer put Clinton at 47% and Obama at 43%, with a 4% margin of error, and surveys by the Houston Chronicle over the weekend show Obama with 46% and Clinton with 45%.
Statistically, on surface it would seem that the Illinois Senator still has problems connecting with large parts of the working class and Hispanic voters that still turn to the former First Lady—and could abandon Obama in November.
The Youth Vote at Glick Report
Tomorrow is what many people are calling “Super Tuesday Part 2″ or “Make it or break it time for Sen. Clinton.” There are primaries and/or caucuses tomorrow in Texas, Ohio, Rhode Island and Vermont.
In my morning preparation for today’s show, I discovered some very interesting statistics — and one article that I was so fascinated by that I asked my executive producer to book the writer or principal for tomorrow’s show.
So what are the stats? They’re the stats that everyone is talking about! The youth vote.
According to SAVE (Student Association for Voter Empowerment), turnout for voters under 30-years-old quadrupled in Tennessee, tripled in Georgia, Oklahoma and Missouri, and doubled in Massachusetts on Super Tuesday. This comes in the wake of the Iowa caucuses, which drew 65,000 people under 30 (a 9% increase since 2004), and the New Hampshire primary, which attracted 84,000 young voters (a 15% increase since 2000).
So what is happening and why are today’s college students getting involved?
Plenty at Stake as Texas, Ohio Prep for Vote
NPR.org, February 29, 2008 · The Democratic primaries in Texas, Ohio, Rhode Island and Vermont on March 4 are seen as make-or-break for the presidential campaign of New York Sen. Hillary Clinton.
Clinton needs to triumph in the delegate-rich states of Texas and Ohio to halt the momentum of Illinois Sen. Barack Obama, who has won 11 consecutive nominating contests since Super Tuesday (including the Virgin Islands and the Democrats Abroad Global Primary). Even her husband, former President Bill Clinton, has said that Texas and Ohio are must-win states if she is going to have a chance at taking the nomination.
Prediction & Analysis of Democratic Super Tuesday II Primaries « Republican Ranting
- Obama 62% 10 delegates
- Clinton 36% 5 delegates
- Other 2%
Rhode Island Primary:
- Clinton 56% 15 delegates
- Obama 43% 6 delegates
- Other 1%
- Clinton 57% 99 delegates
- Obama 39% 42 delegates
- Other (mainly Kucinich) 4%
Texas Primary and Caucuses:
- Clinton 49% 68 delegates
- Obama 47% 58 delegates
- Other 3%
*Note - for Texas, 102 delegates will be desided at the state convention in June*
So, I think Clinton’s going to pull right back into this - I’m going to have a FINAL prediction for Texas once a few overnight polls are released, but I’m pretty confident about the others. Ohio will be a big win for her. I think it’ll be close - Obama will win the nomination, but the infighting will keep up and that’ll help John McCain (the Rush Limbaugh method).
When Texas and Ohio vote in Tuesday’s Democratic primaries, they may bring Hillary Clinton’s campaign for the presidency to an end. If she loses either of those states, her bid is over barring the formalities. This is a position few expected her to be in. Not long ago, success in the primaries and victory in the general election were regarded as almost inevitable. What went wrong?
For the answer, one should turn (as always) to the teachings of Marx. “The secret of success in life is sincerity,” Groucho once famously observed. “If you can fake that, you’ve got it made.”
This truth about the human condition applies with particular force to politics. Mrs Clinton tries hard to fake sincerity – so hard it is painful to watch. Sometimes, in fact, I suspect that she really is sincere and only looks as though she is faking. Barack Obama, on the other hand, may actually be sincere – and if he is not, he fakes it so well it makes no difference. Elections are won and lost formany reasons, but if I had to point to just one in the present case, this would be it.
It is surely telling that the most effective moments in Mrs Clinton’s campaign have been those rare times when a real person has appeared to break through: the tears in New Hampshire, the moving and seemingly unaffected tribute to wounded soldiers at the end of the Houston debate the other day. But for most of the time she has veered from one false personality to another, often during the course of a single debate or interview. One moment she would be acting tough, the next warm; now aloof, now approachable; now a fun person, fond of a joke (that was the worst), now stern and serious. In every moment of repose came that scary rictus smile, to emphasise the lack of authenticity and remind one irresistibly of Jack Nicholson in The Shining.