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Poll: Obama up 10-pts over Romney among Colorado independents
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by mgunner1 | September 24, 2012 at 09:53 am
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As Mitt Romney was giving a speech in Jefferson County on Sunday night to open what will likely be the defining 11 days of his campaign, a new poll came out that is potentially worrisome for the Republican presidential nominee.
It’s not the headline-grabbing 6-point lead for President Barack Obamathat the Public Policy Polling survey of likely Colorado voters found. It’s how the survey got to that number, the Denver Post reports.
To come up with their numbers, pollsters have to do more than just make a bunch of phone calls and then crunch the results. They also have to make a guess at what the electorate will look like on Election Day and then structure their likely voter sample to mirror that in order to pull their jumble of results into a coherent picture. It’s where art meets science in polling.
Read more here.
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Karl Gotthardt - albertacowpokeat 11:58 on September 24th, 2012
As Dick Morris, who worked in the Clinton White House points out, almost all pollsters use 2008 turn out data to crunch the final numbers. As a result Romney numbers are widely understated:
Almost all pollsters are using the 2008 turnout models in weighting their samples. Rasmussen, more accurately, uses a mixture of 2008 and 2004 turnouts in determining his sample. That’s why his data usually is better for Romney.
But polling indicates a widespread lack of enthusiasm among Obama’s core demographic support due to high unemployment, disappointment with his policies and performance, and the lack of novelty in voting for a black candidate now that he has already served as president.
If you adjust virtually any of the published polls to reflect the 2004 vote, not the 2008 vote, they show the race either tied or Romney ahead, a view much closer to reality.
Dick Morris.com
Morris also contends that Rasmussen polls are more accurate and today's Rasmussen Daily Presidential Tracking poll has Romney and Obama tied at 46%. In the end it boils down to turnout and Republicans are well motivate this year, despite the media's protection of President Obama.