Presidential Candidates: Most Accurate Polls of 2012

by Emily Sutherlin | October 26, 2012 at 09:50 am

5603 views | 1 Recommendation | 0 comments

The data for this chart come from the Real Clear Politics summary. Here is a quick summary of the final spread predicted by the pollsters, ranked from most accurate to least:

Poll	Date	Sample	MoE	Romney (R)	Obama (D)	Spread
RCP Average	10/15 - 10/25	--	--	47.9	47.0	Romney +0.9
Rasmussen Reports	10/23 - 10/25	1500 LV	3.0	50	47	Romney +3
ABC News/Wash Post	10/22 - 10/25	1382 LV	3.0	49	48	Romney +1
Gallup	10/19 - 10/25	2700 LV	2.0	51	46	Romney +5
IBD/TIPP	10/19 - 10/24	948 LV	3.5	45	47	Obama +2
Associated Press/GfK	10/19 - 10/23	839 LV	4.2	47	45	Romney +2
Monmouth/SurveyUSA/Braun	10/18 - 10/21	1402 LV	2.6	48	45	Romney +3
NBC News/Wall St. Jrnl	10/17 - 10/20	816 LV	3.4	47	47	Tie
CBS News	10/17 - 10/20	790 LV	4.0	46	48	Obama +2
WashTimes/JZ Analytics*	10/18 - 10/20	800 LV	3.5	47	50	Obama +3
Politico/GWU/Battleground	10/15 - 10/18	1000 LV	3.1	49	47	Romney +2

Below is a look at a summary of polls going back to the 2000 elections where each candidate stood in the races:

State	Obama	Romney	RCP Average	RCP Status	2008	2004	2000
Ohio (18)	47.9	45.8	Obama +2.1	Toss Up	Obama +4.6	Bush +2.1	Bush +3.5
Florida (29)	47.0	48.7	Romney +1.7	Toss Up	Obama +2.8	Bush +5.0	Bush +0.1
Virginia (13)	46.8	48.3	Romney +1.5	Toss Up	Obama +6.3	Bush +8.2	Bush +8.1
New Hampshire (4)	48.2	47.4	Obama +0.8	Toss Up	Obama +9.6	Kerry +1.3	Bush +1.3
Wisconsin (10)	49.5	46.8	Obama +2.7	Toss Up	Obama +13.9	Kerry +0.4	Gore +0.2
Michigan (16)	48.8	44.8	Obama +4.0	Toss Up	Obama +16.4	Kerry +3.4	Gore +5.2
Pennsylvania (20)	50.0	45.2	Obama +4.8	Toss Up	Obama +10.3	Kerry +2.5	Gore +4.2
North Carolina (15)	45.0	50.0	Romney +5.0	Toss Up	Obama +0.3	Bush +12.4	Bush +12.8
Iowa (6)	48.8	46.8	Obama +2.0	Toss Up	Obama +9.5	Bush +0.7	Gore +0.3
Colorado (9)	47.8	48.2	Romney +0.4	Toss Up	Obama +9.0	Bush +4.7	Bush +8.4
Nevada (6)	49.6	46.8	Obama +2.8	Toss Up	Obama +12.5	Bush +2.6	Bush +3.5
Arizona (11)	43.0	48.3	Romney +5.3	Leans GOP	McCain +8.5	Bush +10.5	Bush +6.3
Minnesota (10)	50.3	43.0	Obama +7.3	Leans Dem	Obama +10.3	Kerry +3.5	Gore +2.4
Oregon (7)	49.5	42.0	Obama +7.5	Leans Dem	Obama +16.4	Kerry +4.2	Gore +0.5
Montana (3)	42.7	52.0	Romney +9.3	Leans GOP	McCain +2.2	Bush +20.5	Bush +25.0
Missouri (10)	43.3	53.7	Romney +10.4	Likely GOP	McCain +0.1	Bush +7.2	Bush +3.3
New Mexico (5)	51.8	41.3	Obama +10.5	Likely Dem	Obama +15.1	Bush +0.7	Gore +0.1
New Jersey (14)	51.4	40.4	Obama +11.0	Likely Dem	Obama +15.6	Kerry +6.7	Gore +15.8
Connecticut (7)	52.2	40.5	Obama +11.7	Likely Dem	Obama +22.4	Kerry +10.3	Gore +17.5
Indiana (11)	40.5	53.0	Romney +12.5	Likely GOP	Obama +1.1	Bush +20.7	Bush +15.7
Georgia (16)	40.0	52.3	Romney +12.3	Likely GOP	McCain +5.2	Bush +16.6	Bush +11.7
Washington (12)	53.3	41.0	Obama +12.3	Likely Dem	Obama +17.2	Kerry +8.2	Gore +5.5
Maine (3)	52.7	38.7	Obama +14.0	Likely Dem	Obama +17.3	Kerry +9.0	Gore +5.1