Presidential Candidates: Most Accurate Polls of 2012

by Emily Sutherlin | October 26, 2012 at 09:50 am
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The data for this chart come from the Real Clear Politics summary. Here is a quick summary of the final spread predicted by the pollsters, ranked from most accurate to least:



Poll Date Sample MoE Romney (R) Obama (D) Spread
RCP Average 10/15 - 10/25 -- -- 47.9 47.0 Romney +0.9
Rasmussen Reports 10/23 - 10/25 1500 LV 3.0 50 47 Romney +3
ABC News/Wash Post 10/22 - 10/25 1382 LV 3.0 49 48 Romney +1
Gallup 10/19 - 10/25 2700 LV 2.0 51 46 Romney +5
IBD/TIPP 10/19 - 10/24 948 LV 3.5 45 47 Obama +2
Associated Press/GfK 10/19 - 10/23 839 LV 4.2 47 45 Romney +2
Monmouth/SurveyUSA/Braun 10/18 - 10/21 1402 LV 2.6 48 45 Romney +3
NBC News/Wall St. Jrnl 10/17 - 10/20 816 LV 3.4 47 47 Tie
CBS News 10/17 - 10/20 790 LV 4.0 46 48 Obama +2
WashTimes/JZ Analytics* 10/18 - 10/20 800 LV 3.5 47 50 Obama +3
Politico/GWU/Battleground 10/15 - 10/18 1000 LV 3.1 49 47 Romney +2


Below is a look at a summary of polls going back to the 2000 elections where each candidate stood in the races:


State Obama Romney RCP Average RCP Status 2008 2004 2000
Ohio (18) 47.9 45.8 Obama +2.1 Toss Up Obama +4.6 Bush +2.1 Bush +3.5
Florida (29) 47.0 48.7 Romney +1.7 Toss Up Obama +2.8 Bush +5.0 Bush +0.1
Virginia (13) 46.8 48.3 Romney +1.5 Toss Up Obama +6.3 Bush +8.2 Bush +8.1
New Hampshire (4) 48.2 47.4 Obama +0.8 Toss Up Obama +9.6 Kerry +1.3 Bush +1.3
Wisconsin (10) 49.5 46.8 Obama +2.7 Toss Up Obama +13.9 Kerry +0.4 Gore +0.2
Michigan (16) 48.8 44.8 Obama +4.0 Toss Up Obama +16.4 Kerry +3.4 Gore +5.2
Pennsylvania (20) 50.0 45.2 Obama +4.8 Toss Up Obama +10.3 Kerry +2.5 Gore +4.2
North Carolina (15) 45.0 50.0 Romney +5.0 Toss Up Obama +0.3 Bush +12.4 Bush +12.8
Iowa (6) 48.8 46.8 Obama +2.0 Toss Up Obama +9.5 Bush +0.7 Gore +0.3
Colorado (9) 47.8 48.2 Romney +0.4 Toss Up Obama +9.0 Bush +4.7 Bush +8.4
Nevada (6) 49.6 46.8 Obama +2.8 Toss Up Obama +12.5 Bush +2.6 Bush +3.5
Arizona (11) 43.0 48.3 Romney +5.3 Leans GOP McCain +8.5 Bush +10.5 Bush +6.3
Minnesota (10) 50.3 43.0 Obama +7.3 Leans Dem Obama +10.3 Kerry +3.5 Gore +2.4
Oregon (7) 49.5 42.0 Obama +7.5 Leans Dem Obama +16.4 Kerry +4.2 Gore +0.5
Montana (3) 42.7 52.0 Romney +9.3 Leans GOP McCain +2.2 Bush +20.5 Bush +25.0
Missouri (10) 43.3 53.7 Romney +10.4 Likely GOP McCain +0.1 Bush +7.2 Bush +3.3
New Mexico (5) 51.8 41.3 Obama +10.5 Likely Dem Obama +15.1 Bush +0.7 Gore +0.1
New Jersey (14) 51.4 40.4 Obama +11.0 Likely Dem Obama +15.6 Kerry +6.7 Gore +15.8
Connecticut (7) 52.2 40.5 Obama +11.7 Likely Dem Obama +22.4 Kerry +10.3 Gore +17.5
Indiana (11) 40.5 53.0 Romney +12.5 Likely GOP Obama +1.1 Bush +20.7 Bush +15.7
Georgia (16) 40.0 52.3 Romney +12.3 Likely GOP McCain +5.2 Bush +16.6 Bush +11.7
Washington (12) 53.3 41.0 Obama +12.3 Likely Dem Obama +17.2 Kerry +8.2 Gore +5.5
Maine (3) 52.7 38.7 Obama +14.0 Likely Dem Obama +17.3 Kerry +9.0 Gore +5.1







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