Romney still has uphill battle for electoral college victory
Hundreds of millions of Americans will cast their ballots this November, but the votes that matter the most are cast by members of the Electoral College months later. As seen in the latest polls below, President Obama continues to hold a strong lead in the Electoral College vote count a week after Mitt Romney accepted the nomination at the Republican National Convention. The projection has changed little over the last three weeks, which is bad news for Romney. The last update also gave Obama 333 votes, compared to 205 votes for Mitt Romney.
It should be noted that a large number of the votes currently counted for Obama come from states which are very closely contested. The President's lead in many states is well within the margin-of-error for the given polls, and a change in just a few percentage points could make the race competitive again. Finally, Obama's lead has shrunk over the past two weeks in many key states like Michigan, Colorado, and Virginia.
The projection above is made using the most recent polls linked below, while also giving consideration to the historical trends of each state and other polls released over the last two weeks. Special emphasis is given to how the state voted in 2008. In analyzing Michigan, for example, President Obama won the state by 16 points in 2008, and an average of polls has Obama ahead by 2 points. Considering all these factors, the state is still projected for Obama even though the most recent poll has the race tied.. It is also worth noting that many of the most recent polls come from Rasmussen Reports, an organization that has given Republican candidates a misleading three-to-five point edge in their polls as recently as 2010.
The polls below show which Republican candidate (Romney or not) currently polls best against President Obama in a given state. Since the last update, new polls have been released in the states of Ohio, Michigan, Florida, North Carolina, Colorado, and Missouri.
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