Russia: Strengthening Its Power in the Caucasus

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Russia seems to want to strengthen its position in the Caucasus. According to several observers, the Kremlin could cause instability during the next Georgian elections, in order to strong-arm the country to crawl back into Russia’s sphere of influence.

This September, Russia conducts a series of military exercises in the Caucasus.  Russia has long seen this region as being in its sphere of influence, and so these maneuvers are more of a projection of aggression and power rather than a novelty. Normally, these exercises take place every year in July. However, the fact that these military exercises have been postponed and rescheduled for September – in the midst of a general election period in Georgia – is quite disturbing. For many observers, Russia is seeking to put pressure on Georgian people when it comes time to vote.

After this general election, a presidential election is set to take place in early 2013. The Kremlin supports candidate Bidzina Ivanishvili, a well-known Georgian oligarch who is seen to represent Russian interests. Having made his fortune in Russia during the 1990's privatization movement, Ivanishvili now wants to take power in Tbilisi, and is vying for votes with millions of dollars in campaign expenses every month. In the eyes of Vladimir Putin, Ivanishvili must take power in Georgia.

In this context, the Russian military maneuvers in the Caucasus can be interpreted as an attempt to put pressure on the population to vote in favour of Ivanishvili. The message is clear: the risk of a military confrontation would be greater in the case that Georgian voters do not elect a candidate who will uphold Russian interests within the country.

Other observers, like military expert Pavel Felgenhauer, even consider that Russia is committed to create conditions that will lead to a military intervention in Georgia. These military exercises mean that Russia is well placed to instigate an intervention, from positioning troops to operational readiness. Joint exercises with the armed forces of Abkhazia and South Ossetia – two breakaway regions of Georgia supported by the Kremlin – are also planned to take place.

Elections in Georgia are indeed a great excuse to intervene and assert Russian interests. "If the Kremlin manages to disrupt the elections by violent demonstrations, it will wield the defence of democracy in its sphere of influence to justify a military adventure," says a close associate of the Georgian president.

Georgia is a "test country" for future ex-USSR republics. After the Rose Revolution in 2003 led to the resignation of former apparatchik Eduard Shevardnadze, Georgia voted the reformist Mikheil Saakashvili into power.

Since 2003, Georgia has been the black sheep of Russia’s former satellites. The successes of its economic and administrative reforms have upset the Kremlin. Praised by international institutions for its liberal reforms, Georgia could be a model for post-Soviet States – something that Russia wants to avoid at any cost.

"Any success of a democratic revolution in the former Soviet space is bad for Putin" notes the researcher and Soviet dissident Andrei Piontkovski. Now, Russia wants to divert public support of President Saakashvili to Ivanishvili.