Scotland/Alba - Wendy Alexander in independence referendum chaos

If the Labour Party in Scotland keeps its promise and their leader,
Wendy Alexander, manages to remain in control, then it looks likely
that Scotland could well get their referendum on independence in 2010,
as the Scottish Nationalist Party (SNP) has promised.

As reported earlier in Celtic news, Alexander has refused to back
down on her "bring it on" statement to the SNP over an independence
referendum, but has now confirmed that she will not be tabling a motion
calling for an earlier referendum, as she first indicated. However,
Alexander stated at the end of last week that her party will "not
vote down" a referendum bill that is now expected to be tabled by
the SNP in January 2010, to be voted on in the autumn of the same
year. This could mean that even if the Labour Party choose not to
vote for the bill, they may choose to abstain, giving the SNP the
chance they need to push it through the Scottish Parliament. Alexander
has argued several times that her reason for doing this is that she
is eager to give Scots the chance to decide on their future.

These are brave words indeed for a woman who with one more foul slip,
could very well see her political career finished by the end of the
year. Whether Alexander's decision to publicly support a referendum
bill is one mistake too many for the Labour Party will be borne out
over the coming months, as Prime Minister Gordon Brown in London already
appears to be creating some distance between himself and the Labour
leader in Edinburgh. A statement issued by Brown last week said that
he was not persuaded of the case for a Scottish referendum and added
that he would do everything necessary to defend the union.

However, as commonly argued, a week is a very long time in politics
and two years is an eternity. In consideration of the way things are
going for both Alexander and Brown at the moment, with the poor Labour
election results and the UK economy suffering a down turn, by 2010
both Alexander and Brown could well be finished and the SNP could
still be looking at a hard fight to get their proposed bill passed.
A Conservative Government in London however, could equally work well
for the SNP as suggested by the Conservative Party of Scotland leadership
earlier this year.

For the SNP, Alexander's support for a referendum bill represents:

"...the best possible birthday present Labour could have given the
Scottish Government."

According to a recent Independent on Sunday ComRes poll, the SNP are
2 points ahead of Labour with the SNP taking 30% to Labour's 28% if
a general election were to be held tomorrow.

(Report prepared for Celtic News by Rhisiart Tal-e-bot)


J B Moffatt
Director of Information
Celtic League

19/05/08


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