Special Edition Of WEATHERAmerica Newsletter, Monday, September 8, 2008
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LarryCosgrove | September 8, 2008 at 01:33 pm
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HURRICANE IKE: Emerging Threat To Texas Gulf Coast The 12z and 18z runs of the numerical forecasts models have exhibited a dramatic turnabout in the presentation of Hurricane Ike, now moving westward from a position near Ciego De Avila, Cuba. There has been considerable run-to-run differences in all of the computer schemes, which made my predictions on Saturday with lower confidence than normally would be the case. Now, instead of trajectory forecasts spread throughout most points along the Gulf Coast or showing a recurvature into the FL Panhandle, a very strong concentration of strike probabilities is evident between Kingsville and High Island in TX. Since Ike is only now gaining latitude (after rolling westward along 21 N for the past 24 hours), obviously to the south or left of NHC and dynamic/statistical forecasts, it seems obvious that a revision in the storm track window for Ike is in order. The shearing southwest flow and weakness over the Gulf Coast is shown to disappear within 48 hours, while 500MB height rises take shape over the central and eastern portions of the Gulf of Mexico. In such an environment, free of vertical wind shear and over very warm waters with excellent potential for outflow, Ike is likely to intensify, and strongly. This heat ridge effectively blocks Ike from turning into Louisiana or Mississippi, and saves the energy production areas from the full brunt of the storm. But later this week the ridge complex erodes, and in a hurry. That is when Ike will recurve northward, with scary implications for the Lone Star State. As the computer model consensus maps below clearly show, Ike will likely hit Texas very hard! If I had to pick out a likely landfall location at this point in time, I would probably say Matagorda or Freeport along the central portion of the Texas coast. The northern limit on strike risk is Sabine Pass, and the southern edge is in Kingsville TX. Since the various equations have had a very tough time with getting a handle on Ike (unlike Gustav, which was fairly well predicted), it goes without saying that more changes in the projected path of Ike are likely. But with the subtropical high south of Louisiana removing the impediments to strengthening and providing a steering force, the most likely target is Texas, with a rising possibility of damaging winds and flooding rains in the Houston-Galveston metro. Websites that will come in handy during this event: National Hurricane Center / Tropical Prediction Center Rain Patterns In Landfalling Hurricanes (By Wes Junker) Dr. Allan Huffman's Weather Models Page RAMMB: Tropical RAMSDIS Online Satellite Services Division - Tropical Atlantic Satellite Imagery Tropical Weather : Weather Underground Texas Meteorological Satellite Images Graphics are provided below for your perusal. Here is a quick summary of my "first call" forecast for Hurricane Ike: Peak Intensity: Thursday, September 11, 2008 300 mi ESE of Corpus Christi TX: Category 4, 145 mph winds; 933MB Landfall Point: Freeport TX on Friday afternoon, September 12 with Category 3 winds, 125 mph Wind Potential In Houston-Galveston TX Metro Area Peak speeds of 75 - 100 mph early Friday morning, with hurricane gusts possible as far north as the cities of Brenham and Conroe, and as far east as Baytown. Greatest damage threat west of TX 6 and below Interstate 10. Rainfall Potential Maximum of 12 inches in Galveston and Brazoria counties; 4 - 8 inch rain totals probable along and 100 miles either side of path of center
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at 14:14 on September 8th, 2008
LarryCosgrove, I like this story. It's good stuff.