Survey brings cheer to Congress

There is little evidence of anti-incumbency in the state as we head into the final straight of the election campaign, a survey done by a TV channel has found.

The survey, commissioned by HMTV and supervised by the respected academic Prof. Haragopal, indicates that the mood of the people is everything that the Congress would like it to be under the present circumstances.

The survey polled a total of 5480 people in 279 of the state’s 294 constituencies. Voters in one polling booth in each polled constituency were asked several relevant question to assess the mood of the people vis a vis the Congress party’s governance and some of the important issues in this election. The sample was designed to represent all the major social groups, categories and occupations in the state. The survey also assessed regional variations in the mood of the people.

Asked whether or not they had benefited from the Congrtess party’s schemes, 57.8% of the respondents answered positively and 39.7 per cent negatively. Only a limited conclusion can be drawn from this finding: that is that there is little evidence of an anti-incumbency mood among the people. This fact does not quite indicate that there is strong voting preference for the Congress, only that it makes it more likely that voters will see the Congress part in a favourable light.

Satisfaction with the government’s welfare schemes seemed to be greater in exactly those groups that are more likely to go to the polling stations to vote. Among backward class people, the question ‘Has at least one member of your family benefited from the government’s schemes’, 59% of the respondents nodded assent, while 38.3 per cent indicated disagreement. This is a fact of significance for the Congress in the context of the social justice slogan coined by the Praja Rajyam. Similary, 63 per cent of ST voters and a majority of SC respondents confirmed receiving benefits from the government’s welfare schemes.

What will gratify the Congress most is that among farmers and labourers, the two groups target most by its policies, response to the above question is a strong yes: 69 per cent in the case of farmers, and 65 per cent in the case of landless labourers.Even in the case of women, 59 per cent of the respondents agreed that at one member of their family had received benefits.Asked to name one thing they did not like about the Congress government, 44 per cent said it was the price rise. Corruption was cited by 18.5 per cent of the people.Coming to the crucial question of the Telangana, there certainly is some discomfort for the party in that region, but not quite as much as expected.

Taking the state overall, 30% of the respondents said they agreed that the Congress had handled the Telangana issue well, 14.80 per cent said it had not, 24.9 per cent felt that they felt ‘cheated’ by the Congress. But significantly, a third of the electorate, 34 per cent respondents said didn’t know what to say. The thing the Congress can take away from this set of facts is that a fairly large proportion of people, 48 per cent, have either not made up their minds on the question or are in favour of the Congress handling of the issue.

As can be expected, the responses to this question become more uncomfortable to the Congress as we go to norther Telangana and southern Telangana. Significantly, only 14 per cent of the respondents checked the ‘felt cheated’ option given to them. A large number of people were ambiguous to that question.

An overall reading of the findings of the suvery makes it clear that an anti-incumbency wave is unlikely and that the depth of the Telangana sentiment is not so loaded against the Congress. Plus there seem to be strong regional variations as regards the separate Telangana question.