Taliban Post Letters to Warn of Voting Reprisal

by albertacowpoke | August 17, 2009 at 03:08 pm

155 views | 48 Recommendations | 11 comments

The election in Afghanistan is scheduled to take place on Thursday. What seemed to be a sure win for President Karzai, now looks more and more like a two horse race that will result in a run off election. Recent polls indicate that President Karzai will not achieve 50%.

Recently shabnabas or night letters have been posted by the Taliban warning of reprisals for those that vote. The Taliban have proven with their car bomb, near the ISAF Headquarters, on Saturday that they can place car bombs or IEDs almost anywhere.

In view of the reprisal warning, with letters posted at mosques and outside homes, the voter turnout will be a particular concern.

Statements such as “I don’t want to die when my one vote will not benefit me or my country” can be heard around the countryside.

This election is aiming at bringing out the woman vote as well. There is an effort to get as many as 5 Million women out to vote.

The Taliban have warned that if people do not want to fall prey to their operations to stay home.

The letters, however, could backfire. By limiting the number of people that vote, it is possible that it will favour President Karzai.

“It actually will restrain people form going to vote on election day, but the leaflets really harass the people”, said a shopkeeper. We cannot bear the situation any longer. The current leadership is totally useless, he said. Change must come. It is time to chose the person that can release us from this calamity. For this reason I will vote and take the risk.

Lively political discussions are taking place all over Afghanistan. 17 Million Afghans are eligible to vote. As many as 10% of polling stations could be closed a result of the threatened violence. There was an expectation that there would be 7000 polling stations, the Independent Election Committee says there could be as few as 6200.

The Taliban have claimed responsibility for Saturday's car bomb.

The NATO-led force in Afghanistan will halt all offensive operations on Thursday to focus its efforts on maintaining security for the presidential election. Read Offenses Halted in Afghan Election.

KABUL - The Taliban claimed responsibility for a suicide car bomb in front of the heavily fortified headquarters of U.S. and NATO troops in Kabul on Saturday, saying the target was the U.S. embassy nearby.

"The target was the U.S. embassy, but we could not reach it. The suicide car bomber exploded near the ISAF headquarters and killed several foreign troops," Taliban spokesman Zabihullah Mujahid told Reuters by telephone from an undisclosed location, referring to the International Security Assistance Force.

Afghan Defence Ministry spokesman Yousuf Azimy said three people were killed and 14 wounded, all civilians.

More than 10 per cent of planned voting stations could be closed in Afghanistan during landmark elections because of safety fears, officials said Thursday, as escalating violence killed 14 civilians.

As the Aug. 20 polling day looms, fears of violence and suicide attacks are growing after the Taliban threatened to stop the electorate of 17 million from voting in the country's second presidential vote.

Election officials said security fears could mean hundreds of polling stations across the country do not open, cutting the planned number of voting destinations by up to 12 per cent.

The Independent Election Commission (IEC) said the total number of stations could be as low as 6,200, down from earlier expectations of close to 7,000.

4 See all footage | View Slideshow

Share: email story | add to any | | facebook | stumbleupon

recommend This comment thread is now closed

rng

at 18:21 on August 17th, 2009

Having been there, why would the West ever imagine democracy would be the answer? In a largely tribal culture, and where the dominant Pashtun have more in common with Tehran than Washington, what do we think we can achieve? Afghanistan was a monarchy and a tribal nations for eons. The Taliban never mounted an international operation. Al Qaida were there because we screwed up our exit with Pakistan to focus on Iraq.

Karzai is Nero. He will in all probability be reelected in a run off with Abdul Abdul. Sadly opium speaks louder than democracy. Western arrogance can I please introduce you to Afghan intransigence. Lots of history, that trend is not changing soon

albertacowpoke

at 19:00 on August 17th, 2009

Thanks for commenting, recommending and your insight. It will be interesting to see how many even bother to vote outside of Kabul.

MilanSturgis

at 19:30 on August 17th, 2009

Karl,

Being neck deep in the process here I think people will be surprised with the large turnout on Thursday. The one aspect people are not focusing on is this election has the real possibility of producing an opposition for the first time. BTW, the comment about Pashtuns and Tehera.....Pashtun's have nothing in common with Persians you need to face east not west. The idea of "Pashtunistan" encompasses Afghanistan and NWFP of Pakistan. PErsians are closer to Hazaras's because both are Shi'a-Pashtuns are Sunni.

albertacowpoke

at 01:48 on August 18th, 2009

Thank you for this Milan. I'm hopeful that the tactics of Taliban will not affect the people too much. The situation in Kabul may be different from the situation in Khandahar and Hellmand Province where the Taliban still rule the roost. In any case I agree that an opposition is a real possibility.

158

at 20:26 on August 17th, 2009

Normal terrorist tactic.

The_Cynic

at 21:25 on August 17th, 2009

Normal terrorist tactic.

As one who wrote a thesis on terrorism, and really made my tutor go red at the gills, that thesis looked at what is a terrorist and what is a freedom fighter - it started something like "George Washington in the days of colonial repression...was a terrorist...[...]

The old saying is still valid - one man's terrorist is another man's freedom fighter and more so another man's 'Who are you to get in my way...bugger off!"

What I feel we have to look at are two points - somewhat already discussed.

1) Taleban says they will kill you for voting and then that leaves those who vote (normally those who live in the cities because it is safer there) will vote for the incumbent so making sure that you lose more negotiating position because you have, by threat, led your opposition into power.

2) Is Afghanistan ready for democracy?

Mudassar Nassar (not verified)

at 00:00 on August 18th, 2009

"Is Afghanistan ready for democracy? "

Can someone learn swimming without getting into water?

Mudassar Nassar (not verified)

at 20:51 on August 17th, 2009

"...they can place car bombs or IEDs almost anywhere."

Very constructive tactic indeed. By planting such islamic devices, the awareness among the people about teaching of the god and the prophets would increase multi-fold. Whenever these devices go off they take the souls whoever are in close vicinity to seventh heaven as promised in the holy books.

The amazing part is that such divine devices has a built-in intelligence to know who is the infidel and and who is the believer. They touch only the believers.

a211423

at 09:58 on August 19th, 2009

Perhaps presidential governance in Afghanistan's application of democracy is not the best choice for a country that is largely rural and tribal. There has been some discussion of the pros and cons of parlimentary governance versus presidential. One of the criticisms lodged against Karzai by the rural villages is that they receive no recognition or support from his administration, and these communities who feel disenfranchised are foder for the Taliban. A parlimentary system ensures broader representation including all districts and tribes.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Parliamentary_system

albertacowpoke

at 17:19 on August 19th, 2009

I don't think there is an easy solution for Afghanistan. As you said it is tribal of nature and is ruled by warlords. Power, not votes elect them. It is hard to try to change a country's culture and governance by the stroke of a pen.

Part of the problem also is that Karzai's reach doesn't extend much beyond Kabul. Governing in Afghanistan requires strong and loyal security forces. I think that is a long ways in the making.

albertacowpoke

at 10:15 on August 22nd, 2009

It now appears that he Taliban made good on their promise to cut off fingers in Khandahar province. They targeted some voters right after they left the polls. The turn out in Khandahar province was a fraction of the turn out in the 2004 election. Karzai's opponent is also accusing election fraud, by stuffing ballot boxes.