Temptation of ‘Europe’s Last Dictator’

  Latvian Prime Minister’s trip to Belarus these days coincided with the visit to Minsk by the European Union’s (EU) High Representative Javier Solana. If only Ivars Godmanis of Latvia was a bit rounder the Baltic neighbour of Belarus could proudly swagger as a EU pioneer to about-face the ways and means of getting on with President Alexander Grigoryevich Lukashenko.

Yet Godmanis is the first premier of a EU member-state who has chatted with the ‘Europe’s last dictator’ after a longer hold. Anyway this has been the third meeting between the Latvian and Belarusian government top officials within a year. President Lukashenko reportedly uttered his satisfaction with Latvian government’s driving force role in the EU neighbourhood policy.   

Neither Mr Solana, nor Mr Godmanis encumbered themselves with grumbling about the Belarusian counterpart’s authoritarianism. This is formal logic against the backdrop of crisis. As concerns Latvians, Belarus is still one of their neighbours. It still makes tractors and trucks, good quality cosmetics and hosiery, cheap pharmaceuticals and good enough vodka. Ideological questions do become minor when the crisis spurs forward activization of untapped economic potentialities. Does it mean the end or slowing down of diplomatic play-acting as regards the managed democracy in Belarus? It greatly lies with Brussels, I presume.

It may strike you as strange but since we have learned a thing or two about Hugo Chavez of Venezuela, The Papa of Belarus seems to be brighter and more human than we have been thinking of him before. He does not publicly tease monarchs; he does not miscall Angela Merkel; he does not propagate drug habit; he does not spread rumours about foreseeable confiscation of luxury items, he even does not threaten to kick out American diplomats. And nobody can find any reason to accuse Mr Lukashenko of supporting Hamas or Hezbollah, in contradistinction to the tribune of ‘Bolivarian socialism’.  

The EU membership is considered to be Latvia’s advantage while Belarus enjoys customs union with Russia, Kazakhstan and other CIS countries. Agreement on mutual cooperation may become determinant and help in shaping bilateral relations and joint ventures have been named as currently most prospective target of capital investments. What is happening in Belarus is attracting more and more concerned attention from Latvia which is to face yawning power deficit when Ignalina Nuclear Power Plant closes by the year’s end. While Belarus is pushing ahead with domestic plans to increase energy efficiency, it is the transit options it offers and its nuclear ambitions that are rousing interest in the Latvian capital city of Riga. At first glance it may seem an overstatement but it is the crisis that may help putting Latvian-Belarusian relations into more effective shape.