Tories likely to make gains in Quebec, poll shows

Tories likely to make gains in Quebec, poll shows

• DANIEL LEBLANC

From Thursday's Globe and Mail

August 28, 2008 at 4:12 AM EDT

OTTAWA — The Conservative Party stands to make gains in Quebec in the next election, according to a poll released yesterday that sheds light on the Harper government's apparent hurry to go to the polls and attempt to win a majority.

The new CROP survey puts the Conservatives at 31 per cent in popular support in Quebec, just ahead of the Bloc Québécois at 30 per cent.

The numbers are in sharp contrast to results of the 2006 election, in which the Bloc won 42 per cent of the votes and the Conservatives got 25 per cent.

"The door is open for Mr. Harper," CROP vice-president Claude Gauthier said.

He said the Tories have survived a string of controversies, including anger over recent cuts to cultural programs and the resignation of Maxime Bernier as foreign affairs minister in May.

They have 11 seats in Quebec, compared with the Bloc's 48.

The CROP results, however, show the Conservatives have kept their lead in their stronghold in the Quebec City area, and have gained on the Bloc in other parts of the province.

The Tories are currently 27 seats shy of a majority, and Mr. Gauthier said his poll suggests the parliamentary landscape will be different after the next election.

"In francophone regions outside of Montreal and Quebec City, it's 35 for the Conservatives and 33 for the Bloc, which means the Conservatives have the opportunity to make gains," he said.

In Inuvik yesterday, Mr. Harper said an election will probably result in a minority, but a fresh mandate would allow the government to pursue its agenda.

"My expectation would be that we will have another minority, I think that's the reality of the current political environment," he said.

Still, the Tories feel they are winning support with their openness to the Quebec government's demands for additional powers and increased funding.

In addition, they are banking on voter fatigue with the Bloc, which has been in Ottawa for 18 years and remains far from achieving its goal of Quebec sovereignty.

The Bloc is hoping the close polling results will give extra weight to its argument that it is the only political force that can stand in the way of a Harper majority government.

Bloc officials argue that Mr. Harper has been too close to the administration of U.S. President George W. Bush and the oil industry, and that the Prime Minister's government is recklessly cutting cultural and economic development programs.

"Simply thinking of a Conservative majority sends a chill down the spine," Bloc Leader Gilles Duceppe said recently, adding that his party is the only one that can stop the Tories in Quebec.

The CROP results are not positive for Stéphane Dion and the Liberal Party, which got 20-per-cent support among Quebec voters.

"People are not swooning over Stephen Harper ... but he is seen as being better than the alternative," Mr. Gauthier said.

A Liberal source said the party will work to keep its 11 seats in the province and focus on reclaiming four it recently held in the Montreal area and another in Gatineau.

Mr. Gauthier said the approval rating for the Harper government is relatively strong in Quebec at 52 per cent, and even higher in Quebec City.

The poll was based on interviews with 1,003 respondents and has a margin of error of plus or minus three percentage points.