Tropical Storm Fay Does Florida - and Does Florida Again!
Here we go again! And people in New Orleans are REALLY getting nervous!
Thursday: Fay turns and is still dumping floods of rain. Already 18 inches in some areas and up to 30 inches, more heavy rains expected.
Reports from the National Weather Service are still uncertain if the storm will turn back into the Gulf of Mexico when it gets into the Florida Panhandle. If it does, it can still turn into a hurricane.
a number of computer models show the storm actually re-entering the Gulf of Mexico and then making landfall in westernmost Florida, Alabama or Mississippi, before being pulled back east and north by an approaching frontal system.
The changing forecast keeps the New Orleans area within the National Hurricane Center's five-day risk bubble, and there's now a 10 percent chance that much of the area could experience tropical storm-force winds during those five days.
The official forecast keeps Fay a weak storm throughout its remaining life, with only 35 mph winds on Tuesday when it will reach its western-most point.
The Slidell office of the National Weather Service forecasts only a slight chance of showers for Tuesday, but warns that could change, based on Fay's westward progress.
Nobody along the Gulf Coast should breath a sigh of relief yet!
Wednesday 11:00 AM EDT: Fay still doing Florida with tons of rain and at least 9 tornadoes. Fay is moving slower at 3 mph with winds of 50 mph. The biggest danger is still the heavy rainfall and isolated tornadoes. This is a huge storm extending farout into the Atlantic and down into the Caribbean. The models still predict the storm will turn back into northern Florida, possibly Georgia and begin to dissipate.
IN THE LONG RANGE...SOME GLOBAL MODELS TURN FAY WESTWARD ACROSS NORTH FLORIDA AND INTO THE NORTHEASTERN GULF OF MEXICO. THIS SCENARIO IS NOT LIKELY TO OCCUR BUT I WOULD NOT RULEOUT THE POSSIBILITY YET GIVEN THE GOOD PERFORMANCE OF THE GLOBAL MODELS.
Tuesday 11:00 AM EDT: Tropical Storm Fay, does Florida. Still TS, lots of rain and tornado warnings. Saw a forecast map on the Weather channel this morning that did not like. Showed storm tracking across Florida, into Atlantic, turns into Georgia or North Florida Coast and heads for the Florida Panhandle. That could mean this storm could re-enter the Gulf, with all that could mean. Can't find that graphic online.
Did you see the suicidal kite rider?
Monday 11:45 PM EDT: Tropical Storm Fay waxed and waned, slowed forward movement to 9 mph while maintaining sustained winds of 60mph about 60 miles south of Naples, Florida. Forecast models differ widely on projected path. Expected to reach Hurricane strength before hitting the soutwest coast of Florida. Lots of rain. Extends far out to the east with 3-5 inches in the Bahamas. Up to 20 inches in Cuba. National Hurricane Center and others.
8:10 AM EDT: Tropical Storm Fay pounds Cuba, moving at 12 mph, with sustained winds of 60 mph. Expected to reach hurricane strength over the Florida Straits. Looks like might make hurricane strength by the time Fay reaches the Florida mainland. Over the Florida Straits now.
TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 105 MILES from center.
WunderMap current tracking
Could use some help keeping this updated.
Tornadoes spinning off the rainbands, one touched down near Miami.
Report from NP member AlverezGalloso in Miami, having trouble with internet.
Sunday 10: 50 AM CDT: Tropical Storm Fay slowed and strengthened. Now moving West-Northwest at 13 mph, with sustained winds of 50 mph. Expected to cross Cuba overnight or on Monday morning, and approach the Florida Keys Monday night.
Expected to be near or at hurricane strength by then, depending on variables.
If it stays on track, it may be headed for Orlando by Wednesday morning. But forecast models vary on the path. See 'variables' link for more info.
- Central Florida Hurricane Center
- NOLA Hurricane Center
- Accuweather Hurricane 2008
- Weather.com Tropical News
- Wunderground Flash Tracking
Saturday 11: 30 PM EDT: Tropical Storm Fay now approaching the south coast of Cuba, expected to turn north in the next day or so, moving at about 14 mph with max sustained winds of 45 mph.
Expected to strengthen and slow. A lot depends on whether it stays over water and if a center forms.
Reports indicate the track is about the same, either over the west coast of Florida or over the Gulf.
by Mark Schleifstein, The Times-Picayune
Friday August 15, 2008, 4:10 PM
The National Hurricane Center says Tropical Storm Fay has formed this afternoon just as it is moving onto the western coast of the Dominican Republic, bringing 40 mph winds and heavy rain with it.
Forecasters warn that while the present forecast path will keep fay moving across the islands of Hispanola and Cuba this weekend, limiting its growth, the storm should gain strength quickly as it moves onto the warm waters of the southern Gulf of Mexico on Monday morning.
The storm could be near hurricane strength as it hits the southwestern Florida coastline later Monday, and is expected to hug the state's western coast as it moves northward over the next two days.
Jonathan Erdman, Sr. Meteorologist, The Weather Channel, 1:58 p.m. ET 8/16/2008
With the forecast of an eventual turn to the northwest later Sunday into Monday, Fay could become a hurricane after it emerges off the north side of Cuba later Monday. The Florida Keys and south Florida could see impacts beginning as early as Monday evening from this system.
FAY COULD STRENGTHEN RAPIDLY IF IT BECOMES WELL
ORGANIZED OVER WATER. ON THE OTHER HAND IT MIGHT NOT STRENGTHEN
MUCH AT ALL IF LAND INTERACTION PREVENTS ORGANIZATION.
Anything could happen according to forecasts.