Tropical Storm Fay Does Florida - and Does Florida Again!

by René | August 19, 2008 at 04:10 am

3029 views | 70 Recommendations | 30 comments

Here we go again! And people in New Orleans are REALLY getting nervous!

Thursday: Fay turns and is still dumping floods of rain. Already 18 inches in some areas and up to 30 inches, more heavy rains expected.

Reports from the National Weather Service are still uncertain if the storm will turn back into the Gulf of Mexico when it gets into the Florida Panhandle. If it does, it can still turn into a hurricane.

Wednesday Times-Picayune:

a number of computer models show the storm actually re-entering the Gulf of Mexico and then making landfall in westernmost Florida, Alabama or Mississippi, before being pulled back east and north by an approaching frontal system.

The changing forecast keeps the New Orleans area within the National Hurricane Center's five-day risk bubble, and there's now a 10 percent chance that much of the area could experience tropical storm-force winds during those five days.

The official forecast keeps Fay a weak storm throughout its remaining life, with only 35 mph winds on Tuesday when it will reach its western-most point.

The Slidell office of the National Weather Service forecasts only a slight chance of showers for Tuesday, but warns that could change, based on Fay's westward progress.

Nobody along the Gulf Coast should breath a sigh of relief yet!

Wednesday 11:00 AM EDT: Fay still doing Florida with tons of rain and at least 9 tornadoes. Fay is moving slower at 3 mph with winds of 50 mph. The biggest danger is still the heavy rainfall and isolated tornadoes. This is a huge storm extending farout into the Atlantic and down into the Caribbean. The models still predict the storm will turn back into northern Florida, possibly Georgia and begin to dissipate.

IN THE LONG RANGE...SOME GLOBAL MODELS TURN FAY WESTWARD ACROSS NORTH FLORIDA AND INTO THE NORTHEASTERN GULF OF MEXICO. THIS SCENARIO IS NOT LIKELY TO OCCUR BUT I WOULD NOT RULEOUT THE POSSIBILITY YET GIVEN THE GOOD PERFORMANCE OF THE GLOBAL MODELS.

Tuesday 11:00 AM EDT: Tropical Storm Fay, does Florida. Still TS, lots of rain and tornado warnings. Saw a forecast map on the Weather channel this morning that did not like. Showed storm tracking across Florida, into Atlantic, turns into Georgia or North Florida Coast and heads for the Florida Panhandle. That could mean this storm could re-enter the Gulf, with all that could mean. Can't find that graphic online.

Did you see the suicidal kite rider?

Monday 11:45 PM EDT: Tropical Storm Fay waxed and waned, slowed forward movement to 9 mph while maintaining sustained winds of 60mph about 60 miles south of Naples, Florida. Forecast models differ widely on projected path. Expected to reach Hurricane strength before hitting the soutwest coast of Florida. Lots of rain. Extends far out to the east with 3-5 inches in the Bahamas. Up to 20 inches in Cuba. National Hurricane Center and others.

8:10 AM EDT: Tropical Storm Fay pounds Cuba, moving at 12 mph, with sustained winds of 60 mph. Expected to reach hurricane strength over the Florida Straits. Looks like might make hurricane strength by the time Fay reaches the Florida mainland. Over the Florida Straits now.

TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 105 MILES from center.

WunderMap current tracking

Could use some help keeping this updated.

Tornadoes spinning off the rainbands, one touched down near Miami.

Report from NP member AlverezGalloso in Miami, having trouble with internet.

Sunday 10: 50 AM CDT: Tropical Storm Fay slowed and strengthened. Now moving West-Northwest at 13 mph, with sustained winds of 50 mph. Expected to cross Cuba overnight or on Monday morning, and approach the Florida Keys Monday night.

Expected to be near or at hurricane strength by then, depending on variables.

If it stays on track, it may be headed for Orlando by Wednesday morning. But forecast models vary on the path. See 'variables' link for more info.

Saturday 11: 30 PM EDT: Tropical Storm Fay now approaching the south coast of Cuba, expected to turn north in the next day or so, moving at about 14 mph with max sustained winds of 45 mph.

Expected to strengthen and slow. A lot depends on whether it stays over water and if a center forms.

Reports indicate the track is about the same, either over the west coast of Florida or over the Gulf.

by Mark Schleifstein, The Times-Picayune

Friday August 15, 2008, 4:10 PM

The National Hurricane Center says Tropical Storm Fay has formed this afternoon just as it is moving onto the western coast of the Dominican Republic, bringing 40 mph winds and heavy rain with it.

Forecasters warn that while the present forecast path will keep fay moving across the islands of Hispanola and Cuba this weekend, limiting its growth, the storm should gain strength quickly as it moves onto the warm waters of the southern Gulf of Mexico on Monday morning.

The storm could be near hurricane strength as it hits the southwestern Florida coastline later Monday, and is expected to hug the state's western coast as it moves northward over the next two days.

Jonathan Erdman, Sr. Meteorologist, The Weather Channel, 1:58 p.m. ET 8/16/2008

With the forecast of an eventual turn to the northwest later Sunday into Monday, Fay could become a hurricane after it emerges off the north side of Cuba later Monday. The Florida Keys and south Florida could see impacts beginning as early as Monday evening from this system.

FAY COULD STRENGTHEN RAPIDLY IF IT BECOMES WELL

ORGANIZED OVER WATER. ON THE OTHER HAND IT MIGHT NOT STRENGTHEN
MUCH AT ALL IF LAND INTERACTION PREVENTS ORGANIZATION.

Anything could happen according to forecasts.

Environment

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joellerose

flagged this story as Good Stuff

at 13:58 on August 16th, 2008

René, I like this story. It's good stuff. As a survivor of Hurricane Charley (it took my roof off and tripled our insurance cost), I am watching Fay approach Florida with my heart in my throat.

René

at 20:17 on August 16th, 2008

No less than us over here in New Orleans.

Amy Judd

flagged this story as Good Stuff

at 15:47 on August 16th, 2008

René, I like this story. It's good stuff.

Amy Judd

at 17:07 on August 16th, 2008

Four people are dead in Haiti from the flooding:

Flooding from Tropical Storm Fay killed four people in Haiti and the Dominican Republic, and authorities warned Saturday that the storm could reach hurricane strength as it barreled toward Cuba.

Jordan Yerman

flagged this story as Good Stuff

at 05:49 on August 17th, 2008

René, I like this story. It's good stuff.

René

at 11:42 on August 17th, 2008

Jordan, thanks. Tried to add 'Environment' to tags. and wouldn't let me.

maleger

at 08:40 on August 17th, 2008

Hang in there René.

Vinny

flagged this story as Good Stuff

at 08:43 on August 17th, 2008

voiceforpeace

flagged this story as Good Stuff

at 09:29 on August 17th, 2008

René, I like this story. It's good stuff.

joellerose

at 14:18 on August 17th, 2008

I uploaded a couple of photos I took of the damage a previous hurricane did at my condo in Florida to show why Rene and I are concerned. The first photo shows the roof torn off from the inside. The second photo shows what used to be a pool cage.

René

at 14:37 on August 17th, 2008

What category was Hurricane Charley at when it hit you up there in Orlando? I remember the shock of that storm and that summer.

joellerose

at 14:50 on August 17th, 2008

Category 4 officially on the Saffir-Simpson scale, but the hospital's wind speed indicator broke off at 174, so there were tornados in it. I'm near Orlando, but not in it.

René

at 10:22 on August 20th, 2008

Fay is stalled over your location, Joellerose. How's it going over there?

julianw

at 16:56 on August 17th, 2008

John McCain is aware of the hurricane.

McCain, the Republican nominee-in-waiting, visited the Orange County Emergency Operations Center near Orlando shortly after flying from Long Beach, Calif. Speaking to a pool of reporters, he was optimistic local and federal officials will work together if the storm strikes.

``The good news is, obviously, no state is better prepared or organized to deal with whatever comes this way than the state of Florida,'' McCain told reporters after his briefing.

McCain said he hoped the storm wouldn't permanently hurt central Florida's tourism industry, which includes theme parks like Disney World and Universal Studios.

Emilio Lizardo

at 13:14 on August 28th, 2008

This is a very good sign.

McCain may not know he owns seven houses, but at least he is aware there's a hurricane on its way to New Orleans again ...

Very encouraging!

julianw

at 19:36 on August 17th, 2008

Update:

Tropical storm Fay dumped heavy rains on the Dominican Republic and Haiti, leaving eight people dead and six missing, as US weather experts forecast the system will strengthen to hurricane force as it approaches Cuba.
One person was killed and three were missing in the Dominican Republic due to the heavy rains Saturday, while thousands of people were evacuated to avoid the storm, local media reported.

In Haiti, the heavy rains killed seven people and left another three missing, civil protection officials told AFP.

Paschen

flagged this story as Good Stuff

at 05:24 on August 18th, 2008

René, I like this story. It's good stuff.

Rhonda J Mangus

flagged this story as Good Stuff

at 05:45 on August 18th, 2008

René, I like this story. It's good stuff.

Vinny

at 06:01 on August 18th, 2008

PORT-AU-PRINCE, Haiti - At least 30 people are feared to have died aboard a bus that tried to cross a river flooded by Tropical Storm Fay, a Haitian lawmaker said Monday. A bus carrying 43 people was swept away trying to cross the Riviere Glace on Haiti's southern peninsula on Sunday, Deputy Arcluche Louis-Juene told Radio Vision 2000.

René

at 06:38 on August 18th, 2008

Thanks for all the adds. Can use more help. Saw some of this on the Weather stations.

René

at 08:02 on August 18th, 2008

Thanks, rain bands are extending far out to the east of the storm, over islands off the east coast of Florida. Warnings extended to the coasts of Georgia and the Carolinas.

Todd Stuart

at 08:11 on August 18th, 2008

These are photos taken in Fort Lauderdale that I will update throughout the day as Tropical Storm Fay passes over South Florida.

Todd Stuart has contributed a photo to this story.

politisite

flagged this story as Good Stuff

at 09:14 on August 18th, 2008

René, I like this story. It's good stuff.

Barry Artiste

flagged this story as Good Stuff

at 00:15 on August 19th, 2008

René, I like this story. It's good stuff.

Rachel Nixon

at 08:17 on August 19th, 2008

I've brought this story current now that the storm has hit Florida.

SOLARLIFE

flagged this story as Good Stuff

at 09:23 on August 19th, 2008

René, I like this story. It's good stuff.

angelica_77777777

flagged this story as Good Stuff

at 09:57 on August 19th, 2008

René, I like this story. It's good stuff. I too am watching the events unfold on my local news channel up here in Canada. Florida has sure had its share of storms during the past few decades.