Tsvangirai to return to Zimbabwe

There is a growing danger of a coup by military hardliners in Zimbabwe to prevent opposition leader Morgan Tsvangirai from toppling President Robert Mugabe, a leading think tank said on Wednesday.
The International Crisis Group called for African mediation leading to a national unity government led by Tsvangirai as the best way to resolve a crisis caused by disputed elections on March 29, saying Western diplomacy would have a limited impact.

It said continued rule by Mugabe, who has led the Southern African country since independence from Britain in 1980, would be "catastrophic", for a nation already suffering inflation of 165 000% and 80% unemployment.

The ICG said military commanders opposed to Tsvangirai had been instrumental in preventing a democratic transition.

"There is growing risk of a coup either before a run-off [in a pre-emptive move to deny Tsvangirai victory] or after a Tsvangirai win," the ICG said. The run-off is on June 27.

Mugabe was highly unlikely to accept a free and fair run-off vote against Tsvangirai, in which he would be "humiliatingly defeated", the respected think tank said.

Intimidation, torture and murder by Mugabe's supporters since the March poll "preclude the possibility of holding a credible run-off," it added.