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Unemployment Rate High For Millions of First Time Job Seekers
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by Rory Cripps | December 8, 2010 at 05:35 pm
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Unemployment Rate High For Millions of First Time Job Seekers
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Since April 2009, over a million first-time American job seekers have been looking for a job every month but there are no jobs out there for them.
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- Economists Failed To Predict The Recession But They Say It's Over
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- State Of The Union: Unemployment, Economy, Voter Approval Index
According to the latest monthly unemployment figures issued by the Bureau Of Labor Statistics (BLS), there are over 15 million Americans unemployed. However that number is a drastic under count of the actual amount of unemployed Americans. The reason for the under count is because the BLS simply doesn't count a worker that's unemployed as being unemployed if that worker has given up looking for a job or didn't look for a job four weeks prior to the monthly BLS unemployment survey. The actual and current unemployment rate in America is more than double the latest BLS figure of 9.8 percent. The highest unemployment rate at the height of the Great Depression during the 1930s was about 25 percent.
There is an upward trend in the amount of first-time workers entering the American work force every month. Currently there are over 1.2 million new entrants entering the American workforce every month who can't find jobs (see above chart). At the same time, the amount of American workers who voluntarily left their jobs and are actively engaged in looking for new jobs has flat-lined at about the 800,000 level. In other words, there are currently 400,000 more first-time job seekers competing with voluntary job-leavers every month for jobs and the amount of first-time job-seekers is steadily rising.
Economists disagree on what constitutes a "full employment level". But a ball-park figure for "full-employment" is in the 5 percent range. For America to achieve "full employment" within the next six years will require the creation of about a half million new jobs every month if present unemployment trends continue.
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Rory Cripps
New Port Richey, Florida, United States
Most RecentMost Recommended Comments (13)
at 03:07 on December 9th, 2010
And at the same time, corporate profits are up 5.7% from Q4 of 2007. What a country! Let's just cut taxes for millionaires without paying for them, and screw the unemployed. (We can't afford to extend the benefits, is the mantra.)
at 05:07 on December 9th, 2010
Nanute: If it were not for the current social safety nets that FDR initiated and LBJ brought full circle, the recession which the NBER says was over in June 2009 would have been a depression. Isn't it curious that the unemployment rate for those in the finance and management professions has averaged 4 percent throughout the entire recession? If the Republicans get their way, most of us will be either out of work or working for slave wages. And I'm not being facetious here.
at 08:08 on December 9th, 2010
If anyone can drive us off the cliff (again), I'm confident that the most recent group of elected representatives on the right side of the aisle can do it. There will be a buffer in the Senate, but there too, there is a group of DINO's that will help in the name of "fiscal responsibility." I am somewhat hopeful that the recent deal negotiated by Obama with regard to extending the tax cuts will not get through the lame duck session of Congress. If we can't afford extending unemployment benefits, (which we can), we certainly can't afford extending the tax cuts. Especially for the top 1%. I'd rather see my taxes go back to the rate they were at prior to the unpaid for Bush tax cuts. I can't imagine where the incoming Congress will get the money to pay for the deficits that will be generated by extending the tax cuts. Take that "savings" and create some goddamn jobs. You can bet your ass that the Republicans will be gunning for the social safety net in one way or another. The 2% FICA tax reduction looks like a first step. Do you think they'll re institute the tax break in 2 years? Not on your life.
at 08:55 on December 9th, 2010
To most people my age this may as well be a depression. They are so few jobs to get other than bartender and waiter. Even for people like one of my friends who holds multiple college degrees and speaks three languages fluently.
My generation—im a sophomore in college—is expected to have held five career level jobs by the time we reach our early thirties because the jobs and job paths simply are not there anymore.
And Rory thats because they can sit on their wealth knowing they'll have pennies last. And yet we desire tax breaks that permit this. And pay our politicians hundreds of thousands of dollars apiece.
at 09:52 on December 9th, 2010
Grace: In my opinion, we are in the beginning stages of a depression. It's estimated that about 70 percent or more of the U.S. economy is consumer driven. If consumers don't spend money, then the economy remains stagnant. One major component of a depression is deflation which is simply a term for falling prices. The consumer price index (CPI) is at its lowest point since 1957. The only commodities that are showing significant price increases are energy and food. Also education costs and medical care costs have risen. That means that wages for the average worker are essentially stagnant. Some economists believe that a low CPI is a good thing. And other economists believe that the CPI understates current price conditions and some economists believe the opposite.The Bureau Of Economic Research proclaimed the recession to be over in June of 2009. However, to many Americans, it doesn't seem like it's over--especially to the millions that are out of work and that can't even find a job sweeping floors or washing dishes.
at 11:26 on December 9th, 2010
Right you are Rory. The 64 thousand dollar question is who is going to create the demand? It doesn't look like the private sector is interested. Time for another WPA?
at 11:46 on December 9th, 2010
Nanute: LOL! You mean you agree with me? WWII pulled America out of the Great Depression. After the war, all that money that American consumers didn't spend during the war was let loose. i.e. the flood gates were opened. Then there was the Marshall Plan and that paved the way for the modern day American "Military Industrial Complex". That period was a prime example of Keynesian Economics in practice. But the problem with Keynesian Economics is that it's good on the spending side and the pump-priming side but once it's in force, its momentum is hard to break and the consequence is high rates of inflation and massive government deficits. We all saw what happened with runaway inflation in the 70s and early 80s. And the only way to lower inflation is for the Fed to tighten up on the money supply. And that's exactly what the Fed did during the first Reagan term and the result was double-digit unemployment and double-digit interest rates. There are no easy solutions to the current economy because it's a depressed economy no matter how much the pump is primed. That's bad news and it's going to continue to be bad news for quite some time.
at 10:49 on December 9th, 2010
A very food point Grace. Also, from personal experience, I have noticed many of the jobs that ARE available will not hire someone with a degree, because they are "over-qualified" for the position. In other words, we are not worth hiring, because we have the ability to be in a better job, and will probably just leave as soon as one opens up. Those "better jobs" are closed to us, because we do not have the three to five years experience on the job, and we cannot get the experience unless someone hires us.
We leave school with a debt that will take us a decade to dig out of, even if we find a decent job, and then there are no decent jobs available to us. It is not just the USA, here in Canada it is happening. It happens in the UK, also.
at 08:48 on December 9th, 2010
It is a toss up, sadly; the right have a tendency to look out for themselves first, sacrificing those who have the least to give. The left tend to attempt more social safety and security for those in need, but also have a tendency to fail at balancing the books, and put the finnancial burden on those who have the least to gain. With power somewhat more equilibrated these days, if the Republicans and Democrats can manage to “play nice” the strengths of each side could be brought forward, benefiting all those unemployed workers. But then, cooperation with ones opponents is hardly a common part of human nature. I guess it’s a matter of “wait and see,” though I wouldn’t suggest anyone hold their breath.
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"thirty-aught-six" (not verified)at 11:53 on December 9th, 2010
For years the American left has been whining about the immorality of Corporate America and the economic global imbalance. What was needed they claimed was a global economy that would answer to the redistribution of wealth from the haves to the have nots. Well, they got their wish. The American economy is now tied to a global reality and jobs are being produced overseas and the profits going to develop even more opportunity outside the US. The wealth is being redistributed. Now the left is whining that Corporate America has failed to look after the needs of Americans. To the left employment is a right and the relationship between job creation, production and product sales is immaterial to that right. Guess what. There is no job if you can't sell a product that cost more to produce in the US when it can be produced cheaper elsewhere. It's time to stop whining and accept the consequences of your ideology. You have shot yourselves in the proverbial foot with your ideology and attitudes of entitlement to the union wage and 40 thou. benefit package. The job you could of had is now gone to those in greater need. Your standard of living will continue to fall until a global equilibrium is reached. But take heart. Know that your reduction of standard of living is a moral good. And you still get to blame someone else.
at 13:27 on December 9th, 2010
If I didn't know better, Id think you are a concern troll. The notion that the left was/is responsible for the global economy is a fiction in your very creative mind. You can't equate all Democrats with the left, just as, in the past, you couldn't equate all Republicans with the conservative right. (Today, not so much with Republicans.) Let's look at the Vote on NAFTA:
In the House: Passed 234-200. 43 no votes from Republicans and 156 no votes from the Democrats. Yes votes: Republicans 132, Democrats 102. In the Senate: Passed 61-38 (2 votes above the fillibuster 60 vote requirement.) Here's the list of the votes in the respective chambers:Final Vote Results for Roll Call 575 U.S. Senate: Legislation & Records Home > Votes > Roll Call
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"thirty-aught-six" (not verified)at 15:11 on December 9th, 2010
Like most leftist you rewrite what you want to represent and then claim them to be the words of others. I didn't say the left was responsible for the economy. I said they got what they demanded as per their idealistic approach over practical reality. Now the consequences have come home. Nor do I anywhere equate all Democrats as leftist nor all Republicans as Tea Party'rs. Not only is your post a collection of unfounded accusations but, your lead sentence is a self-supported negative to prove a false positive. You obviously don't know better. If you did, you wouldn't have posted a thought you believe you know better than to post.
at 16:39 on December 9th, 2010
Both the Democrats and the Republicans had a hand in allowing this depressed American economy to fester. One of the main contributing factors to our current economic problems was the highly inflated housing and real estate market and there's no doubt that members of both political parties allowed financial institutions such as Goldman Sachs to come up with all sorts of exotic and creative schemes to make billions on the failed mortgage market. But the mortgage crisis was only one factor. When you've got an economy that's based on White Collar pencil-pushers and "services" you've got an extremely fragile economic foundation.