US Dollar Loses 97% of its Value

by PIM of SPAIN | July 20, 2009 at 08:44 am
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Powerless US Dollar | Photo 02

Powerless US Dollar | Photo 02

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Since 1971 the US dollar has been depreciating ever since. Seventy years ago it was first devalued from $20.67 a gold ounce to $35 compared to approx. $970 being today’s gold value. After that now 38 years ago the devaluation started gaining strength. Consequently the dollar has lost over 97% of its gold value since August 15, 1971, which is about 2.6% per year.

More to the point, once again as in the past also occurred, the world’s currency has been devaluing for decades. And once again, with Asia as its most important trading partner. What if, once again, Asia stops accepting the world’s currency? History never repeats itself exactly, but looking for signposts to the future, then the day when India, China and the rest of Asia that still is tied to the US dollar decide to change their mind definitely that will be the last day for the US Dollar as the internationally accepted reserve currency. Asia, particularly, is now facing the fact that they are holding a depreciating currency amounting over US$ 2 trillion, which is the majority of their currency reserves and they likely are moving to diversify.

The last time inflation reared its ugly head was in the 1970s then-President Nixon put up wage and price controls, not once, but twice. Both times they failed and shortages quickly developed. When they were removed, prices soared to make up for lost time. It was Volcker as Chairman of the Fed who took the right measures to get inflation under control.
Soon a new period of accelerating inflation could start again. If so, be not surprised to see price controls again instituted. No one in power ever seems to learn from the past.


If anything, what does this tell about the future? The world's main currencies, first the British pound and then the US dollar, have been steadily losing their values since 1914, when the pound went off the gold standard nearly a century ago. Richard Nixon in 1972 decoupled the US dollar from its gold connection that stood at the time at US$ 35 an ounce. As events now stand, the world is in danger of rejecting its old reliance on the U.S. dollar as the world's reserve currency, yet there is no clear substitute at the moment. The IMF’s Special Drawing Rights (SDR), a basket of different international currencies, talked about to be an alternative, however technically for the moment is not feasible.

The world could be on the verge of a virulent period of having a global currency breakdown into competing and even warring currency bloc factions: a dollar bloc, a euro bloc, a Chinese Renminbi bloc and possibly an Islamic dinar bloc. At the very least, for the time being, the world will continue to accept the US dollar as global currency nevertheless it continually keeps losing its value.

At what point will the world become fed up, and force a change? If history is an indicator, it took the Roman world 110 years (215 to 325) of true currency chaos to utterly reject it and embrace honest money in the form of gold and silver coins. So following this, expect an official embrace of gold in the global monetary system in 2024, 110 years after 1914 when the world will "celebrate" a century of currency instability. Given that nowadays things move much faster, the change will be sooner rather than later. Look for a change around 2020, give or take a few years. By that time, the era of currency debasement that the world has experienced, and even tolerated and encouraged for a century, will become out of fashion. The world will then start to go to the other extreme of rigid stable monetary values. Before that time comes, take care that the vast majority of your wealth is in gold and silver.

Sources and links of interest:
http://www.islamicmint.com/islamicdinar/history.html
http://www.moneyfiles.org/goldwar.html

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2
batvette

funny, what's your view on the Iraq war? US hawks brutally enforcing  oil exploration opportunities?

It was sold on false pretenses but for the best of reasons- then again it was sold on the truth.

The WMD and threat of Saddam was not what we found after we bombed the crap out of his country and he didn't fight back.  He didn't have stockpiles, and that was precisely the danger. Blix declares him WMD free 6 months later, sanctions end (naysayers would claim sanctions were an open ended affair, complete bull) and three nations with the 25 year exclusive drilling rights to the nation which now is estimated to hold the largest petroleum reserves in the world- most of it high pressure with minimal lift cost- begin to pump away with zero restraint- how much drilling resources can China muster? A BUNCH, no doubt.

the money- all of it- goes straight into Saddam's hands, and we have no basis to further surround him or apply sanctions-you think he would accept Migs from Russia? Mirage F1's from France, in payment? Let's also not forget Saddam's military is the most experienced in the region now!

But all of that "threat", aside- the gist of which is he had to be attacked because we were afraid Blix wouldn't find any WMD, none of this "let him finish his job" stupidity- the relevance to your topic is this- Saddam had already switched his oil sales to the Euro in 2000, and was making a healthy return on that investment - 20% over 2 years. Iran was itching to join him, as were Venezuela, and several other OPEC middle east nations who were getting worrisome about US investments when after 9 /11 we started randomly seizing theirs for suspicion of supporting terrorists. So don't invade, and by the end of 2003 we have a worldwide PetroEuros market established nearly overnight- remember oil for food established the other half of the equation, a real flow of goods and services from Paris to Baghdad in exchange for the petroleum. With France , Russia and China all now off the petrodollar, at least 4 major oil producing nations exporting in Euros, Russia, the 2nd largest oil producer now also free to do what they like, the dollar selloff worldwide would be monumental. Cataclysmic.

Saddam flowing in riches- and worse, the Saudis, our financial allies, also share our misery and see their wealth and position as OPEC kingpin erode quickly- making them an easy victim for what most said was pure folly- an invasion by Saddam, leaving him controlling the straits of Hormuz.

What's the most interesting part is while these views are shared by a few, thought far between experts, one thing I have concluded that they have not, is all this was hardly an accident waiting to happen.

Saddam was precisely orchestrating these events for his defeat of the United States.

(payments to suicide bombers, led to widespread violence, Israeli reprisals, anti-Israel and anti-US protests across the middle east by early 2002, he got fairly close to organizing an Arab oil embargo against us in April 2002- aligning those 3 nations, our direct competitors, to virtually plunder his nation's resources...  he had a larger goal)

Americans would say "but what was the war for? look how bad off we are now!"

Yeah? Try the dollar shedding 90% of its value in 6 months or less starting in late 2003.....  

0
Rory Cripps

PIM of SPAIN: Great analysis as usual! Here's mine along with a little investment advice: Go out and by as many wheelbarrows as you can. They'll come in handy for transporting U.S. Greenbacks, in a couple of years, when we have to buy a loaf of bread,  a bag of rice, and some beans. I don't see another Paul Volcker on the horizon.

0
Pollytwo

Who cares. The dollar is a fiat currency created by the same group of bankers that every country in the world is in debt to. Until we start looking at the right people, this issue will not go anywhere, and will continue to repeat at their whim. If people get out of line, they collapse a currency, or cause a problem, or force someone to bomb someone else.

Or in this case, collapse a currency and offer a solution, which the world will be seeing shortly...

I laugh at all of this fear mongering. The us dollar is collapsing, the US is in debt. Here's some info... The US has been bankrupt since 1933, The US is a debtor nation. It operates on credit and debt and the promise to pay by it's slaves labor, I mean, citizens labor. There is NO MONEY. The national debt? You actually know what that is? It is debt to a foreign bank that can NEVER BE PAID BACK. and that is how it was designed from day 1. They caused the great depression, and we fell in league with them. They created xxx money for us to use (fiat money, i.e, worthless unless someone puts symbolic value into it) , with interest. Problem is, they never printed enough money to pay the interest. So the Corporate US (i.e the FED), screwed itself willingly, and sold the US national civilian out.
Look it up.

0
Rory Cripps

No one knows the cause of the Great Depression. Anyone that claims to is suspect. Most people think that FDR pulled America out of the Great Depression and that should tell you something. Economics is not a hard science. We can only take the economic statistics that are available to us and attempt not to torture them and see if their collective input  makes mathematical sense and falls within certain accepted probabilities. No one, other than the "movers and shakers" really knows what's going on behind the scenes so that leaves out 99.999999% of us. Therefore, we can only speculate and offer opinions. But what we do know, however, is that certain macro and micro economic events, that have occurred throughout the years, have often (and in many cases consistently)  rendered strikingly similar economic results for better or for worse.

1
batvette

Would it be a fair analysis to say that in most of the large scale financial plans we've ventured into, (take Kissinger's deal with the Saudis, in 1973, reaffirming the dollar as OPEC's trading currency) which involve the manipulation of currency in our favor, there inevitably seems to be a "piper" to pay down the road?

(not to say that such negative repercussions outweigh the benefits of such ventures, and we'd probably do it again- I mean what could go wrong with a scheme which allows you to print otherwise worthless money as fast as developing and industrialized nations could consume petroleum, that wasn't even yours, and accept real goods and services for this money? Well, plenty, you just need to postpone that pain until it's someone elses's problem)

It  might also be said that dollar recovery became an impossibility when we facilitated China's industrialization during the '90s, by closing factories that produced long standing US products  and had China make them instead. Since US consumers would  not purchase the same or similar product now made overseas if the quality was too inferior, many companies sent engineers to China or had Chinese products expertly analyzed here and then helped the Chinese perfect their manufacturing processes, instead of doing it by trial and error.

(I know a guy whose job was just that, he had a background in electrical engineering and worked as manager of new product development for the largest car alarm company in the business as they expanded ino mobile audio. They bought up major US made brands as they began to fail financially in the face of many cheaper Asian products, they would continnue the brand name but have the products made in China. He travelled to China every few months, submitting a sample or two to half a dozen manufacturers to see what they could do, and they'd send their versions to him to punish in their lab here. He might even have materials sent out to be analyzed, and whatever they came up short on he'd give them the expert analysis to correct the problem, whether it was faulty materials or in the manufacturing process itself. This knowledge was gleaned from the experience of the engineers in the companies they had bought up- you can imagine how a plethora of divverse industries all doing this same practice over a period of time could have transferred an enormous fortune of intellectual properties that we cannot ever get back.)

The Chinese are both industrious and, regrettably, sometimes unscrupulous in their business practice. With no respect for patents, some industries progressed in leaps and bounds, the result of which now is a situation where there is little the US could possibly  manufacture that anyone in the world would want simply because they quality gap has so narrowed, it's not worth the additional cost.

Dollar recovery used to come when it dipped low enough that our exports would be priced attractively in foreign markets. Thus it always had a safety net.

There is still a net, it sits at the US worker willing to earn a bowl of rice, a few hundred yen and a couple of fish heads for a day's work. And have the environment horrifically polluted.

(I have heard the real estate crisis described as wall street, without a solid expanding business like manufacturing to invest money into and grow by the end of the '90's, and after the dot.com bust, was left with little choice but to fabricate one- junk mortgage funds. Which obviously was not sustainable...)

0
Thomas Jefferson

Marc Faber, the renowned international investor, has stated that the low-interest-rate policies of the Federal Reserve Bank "created the mess" and that Bernanke's current policies will "destroy the US dollar."

0
PIM of SPAIN

A very good point you made batvette, at the end of the day there is no free lunch at all, as was thought at the time of the Opec deal. Once you have learned the ape to climb the tree, (Chinese manufacturing outsourcing) there is not more left than be inventive once more learn from past mistakes and try again. That takes time and courage.

0
batvette

IIRC, wasn't that deal with OPEC/the Saudis made despite the G6 (was it 6 then?) soliciting from us and our giving a promise specifically that we would not enter such a deal of currency exclusivity?

However underhanded or not, I think in many ways America does not appreciate how much of our prosperity since 1973, we owe the Saudis credit for. Unless one holds the disingenuous view that the reason we controlled over half the world's wealth by the 2000's, was due to hard work...  charm... luck...

0
PIM of SPAIN

Only vaguely I do remember that deal, not the specifics anymore. But as you say, the details don't matter, the facts count. You're right that it isn't appreciated the way it should be.

About hard work, I think we'll have to return to the performance society as it was after WWII to get out of the mess that was created afterward, starting in the late 60s.


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First Flagged at 8:54 AM, Jul 20, 2009 by sivakaran
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