Virginia — Slipping away from McCain

New CNN/TIME Battleground poll numbers have pretty bad news for John McCain. The Commonwealth of Virginia, a state that has not voted DEM since 1964, is simply slipping away. New polls numbers …

Barack Obama: 53%

John McCain: 43%

It doesn’t get much grimmer for McCain. Virginia appears to be pulling away, like Pennsylvania.

“Obama is winning men and women in Virginia, and is doing well across the state east of the Blue Ridge Mountains,” said CNN Polling Director Keating Holland.

This shows that it is not just Northern Virginia carrying the day for Obama, but also eastern parts of Virginia.

Virginia is of particular interest. Here is why …

Regardless of what the McCain campaign says, reality is, there is no blue state that McCain is even close to picking up. There just isn’t. Polling doesn’t show it, in fact, they are showing huge widening for Obama in states like Pennsylvania, Minnesota, and Wisconsin. Now, given the Bush/Kerry map, Bush defeated Kerry 286-252. Now, given the polling, Obama is most certain to win New Mexico and Iowa. That brings the electoral tally down to 274-264. What makes Virginia important? If Obama win Virginia along with New Mexico and Ohio, even giving McCain Florida and Ohio (which appears like Obama will take both of them as well), Obama still wins with 277. That is without Florida and Ohio. Now you can begin to see what even many GOP operatives are looking at the polling and the map and admitting defeat is likely on the way.

To me, for Obama, Virginia is the key, even beyond Ohio and Florida, because Obama, UNLIKE McCain, can still win without Florida or Ohio. McCain can’t win IF he loses just one of them.

Here are the rest of the TIME/CNN polls …

COLORADO: Obama 51, McCain 47
FLORIDA: Obama 51, McCain 46
GEORGIA: McCain 53, Obama 45
MISSOURI: McCain 49, Obama 48

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