When Ends the Recession?

Yes indeed Karl it is important to keep people's minds active on this subject. Thanks for yr appreciated comment.

Actual I think it will end in a years time, I have to say that as its part of a prediction I gave last year.  But really that's not the real problem there is a real need to stop America's bad economy from causing another recession within the next decade.

The answer is to have a multi-sovereign currency exchange a Global or World dollar. USA has shown it is far to weak to control the worlds economy, China does not wish to take over but is for a World$. USA taken out of any form of economical control of the world will at this time speed up the world recovery.

The need for manufacturing bases strengthened in each and every western nation is a must  its completely necessary for countries to become more self sufficient in manufactured goods for their home markets. China's aid is required and its actually beneficial in the long term for them to allow their exports to be culled by 50% of its original output. I have noted signs that the China Family already know this is a solution, and the fact the world needs to create new markets as China is doing in Africa and the third world. Its a case of we help you build a better infrastructure and improve your consumer market and you help us to gradually increase our exports to you and your new consumer base.

We the west have got a lot to learn from the China family or get left behind. Create a need for China to trust and work together to create a better World for prospective consumers in the third World.  Its the only way forward and china is pushing the plow.   

Thanks for getting my attention to follow the trail of articles PIM's as I love to analyze the global Chess game even to the point of guessing the next moves by the main players. .   

Thanks Babel for letting me read yr thoughts. It would be ideal if as such could be accomplished. I do 100% agree with you. However the economic indicators are telling a different story about this crisis. It is impossible to make a prediction when and how this crisis will end. It is man made for over 50 years of over blown expansion efforts and that won't be readdressed over night. There is a lot to learn as you correctly mention. Not only learning but also listening to capable independent experts is a requirement. So far little listening has been done.

I said it yesterday, and I'll say it again today: If the major industrialized nations, and I'll include China here, want a stronger dollar buy some. In fact, as I said earlier, Asian countries intervened on Friday to do just that.

Pim, I understand your frustration and anger with US economic policy. I just can't buy in to the notion that allowing the banking system and major domestic entities to fail all at once, is healthy. De-leveraging, and a slow process of unwinding this excess debt, US and worldwide seems prudent.

Babel thanks for letting me read yr view on this matter again. I don't trust yet the GDP figures coming out of China, to have trustworthy impression on the state of their economic affairs.  Some of their GDP data looks (too) rosy, say the Chinese themselves. Incoming data from the provinces are often rigged, even two of the provinces claimed 16% in a period when the nation of 31 provinces averaged 7% altogether, while 24 provinces reported data much higher than the national average! They built unnecessary bridges to nowhere adding them to the provincial GDP as growth, then teared them down again for another adding to the provincial GDP lol. And... then they build them up again and so on. Keep my fingers crossed for yr Christmas purchases. We'll wait and see and come back to this subjec after the X-mas holidays. Thanks for yr contribution anyhow.

Nanute thanks for your comment too. I'm not frustrated at all. Moreover there is a wide difference between supporting major financial institutions and throwing good money after bad as is the case with cash for clunkers, etc. As explained before, providing taxpayers' money to financial institutions should have been accompanied with tough conditions and that didn't happen, it was too much the old boys network. Like Einstein once wrote, “Never expect the people who caused a problem to solve it.” The economy needs to be restructured and not revived. You cannot leave Managers in charge that created the mess in the first place. My very first article on nowpublic dealt with this aspect.

The need for manufacturing bases strengthened in each and every western nation is a must  its completely necessary for countries to become more self sufficient in manufactured goods for their home markets.

I am not an economist and have no aspirations of ever achieving that status, but strengthening each country's home markets makes sense to me.  But how does this set with the crys of "protectionism," not only when Obama put the 35% tariff on tires, which I lauded, but other countries are hearing this from their constituencies as well.  How can a balance of trade exist among countries if home markets are weak, unemployment is high, and no one is buying? 

We have to build up our own manufacturing, which will create more jobs.  Then people can begin to pay down their debt and start spending again. I have read that replacing the millions of jobs that have been lost will be a long process, perhaps ten years.   

It will be interesting to see how much people will be spending this Christmas in comparison to last Christmas.   

You ndo have to realize that 'recession' is just the opposite of 'inflation.'

and it's all about the money supply, which is controlled by our dear FED.

What the Fed doesn't want you to know, about inflation and Recession.

The Fed is the problem not the solution.

How five banks took over USA. (and why Geithner said you don't want to go there?)

You do have to realize that 'recession' is just the opposite of 'inflation.'

and it's all about the money supply, which is controlled by our dear FED.

some stories I've filed on NowPublic:

What the Fed doesn't want you to know, about inflation and Recession.

The Fed is the problem not the solution.

How five banks took over USA. (and why Geithner said you don't want to go there?)

(jeez it's hard to edit this, with captcha chiming in)

strange glitch in editing comment, got the one with the typo still in the que. above

I have lived in Asia for two years and travelled regularly for business around China. China has always diddled the economic numbers. The simple fact is China will be and do whatever it says it will be or do: it's a dictatorship. If they decide tomorrow to become the world's number one porn producer, you can be damn sure by the end of 2009 the world would be flooded with 100,000 Chinese porn movies. Now, that doesn't mean those porn films are of a good quality, or that half aren't just re-cut older films: but they will hit their target number. I am long-term optimistic about the US because the US has a system that has many checks and balances and still free speech: this means people are forced to tell the truth about the state of the economy. People call Detroit a dump, they don't pretend otherwise. Americans just need to wake up to serious life-style changes and to work smart, not dumb (driving everywhere, eating junk food, failing in education). 

iffy a very wise comment you wrote. Your experience in China confirms my above statement about GDP data that aren't reliable. I'm working already a couple of weeks on an essay about China, and more or less its conclusions match your experience. Thanks so much, because that means I'm tapping the right sources.

Further I also believe in the American people's pushing power. Most had it too easy for too long with their junk food culture and failing education. Let's hope this will improve as result of this crisis. As the saying goes: Something good is born out of a bad experience!

Nanute thanks again, the difference between restructuring and reviving is as follow:

A short recession can be  revived by injecting money to restart the economy when it has arrived in a slump. A recession slump takes usually about 6-8 month. But this time we are not in a slump thus a recession either, measuring the length in month of this crisis, it factually has taken almost two years. In such an event reviving doesn't help, restructuring is required to eliminate the excesses that were created by the easy money policy of the feds. (since 2000 by Greenspan initiated). The industrialized world has about 30 - 40% too much production capacity, and that has to be eliminated along the route of creative destruction. Such a process can take many years, if you consider that the built-up took about 50 years. The excesses are not eliminated over night it can take 5 - 10 - 15 or even 20 years before a new equilibrium between demand and  supply has been reached. All depends on the feds, if they continue with injecting money into the economy, it will take much longer.

The economy is like trying to re-boot a PC with Windows 95 installed on it. That's what the stimulus is doing: it is trying to jolt an out-of-date economic model and getting it running like it's 2007 again. But that model is dead and over. It's broken and can't function without grotesque market manipulation. And even with the market manipulation, it isn't working.What is needed is something radically new. Like when the first Mac came on the market and everyone just watched the commercial (the 1984-style commercial) with their mouths open, going 'Wow! Is that cool or what!' Nobody is looking at sub-prime, invading Iraq, all the fat and obese people, the ducking and diving illegal immigrants, the corner boys dealing drugs and killing each other, and going 'Wow! That looks cool!' Nobody is saying that. 

Thanks René for sharing your thoughts here. Had a look at yr sites, and admire your courage and insight. Indeed the fed is the unelected arm of the government, that spends the bulk of taxpayers' money. Completely incorrect. As explained above we are not in a recession anymore, but technically in an economic depression, since the term of a recession has been exceeded. However the Fed continues to treat this crisis as a recession and consequently administer the wrong medicine. The extinguish the fire with high octane fuel instead of water. In other words flooding the market with more money does not solve the problem of too much credit that  caused the crisis in the first place. I don't know how many of mine essays you have read , but probably you understand that I'm not very much in favor of the fed's action, and that is already for a very long time.

Thanks a211423 for expressing your vision as an outsider and none expert. You two last paragraphs show a lot of common sense. A practical approach is often better than a professional one, economics actually is not even a science! Creating new job through innovation and applying new routes are the solution. In previous essays I indicated several viable new ways to reach the objectives you also suggest. With all the money wrongly spent it is a shame that intellect is not better put at use!

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PIM, another fine article!

While creative destruction is needed - urgently - no president, or prime minister, or banking chairman, wants to leave with "he destroyed our economy" ringing in his ears. Thus leadership will patch, plug, borrow, make things worse, prolong the agony, and leave a fine lump of a mess, for who ever comes after.

I fear that we are in a rut (or a chasm) that could take the better part of a decade, perhaps longer, to climb out of.

Good, informative post.